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Are PM prices near their peak?

ronorono
in Other Investing
Howdy folks,

This article is by a long time friend of mine that founded Liberty Coin Service here in Lansing. Please note he has always been a gold-bug. As for my take on the PM markets . . . back the truck up and fill it. Seriously, I can't see anything changing that has led to both gold and silver up over 50% YTD. Unlike the Big Bonanza that ran from 2002 to 2012, this time I'm not playing the individual junior silver miners but going with the ETFs in that space. Silver is STILL where the leverage is, more so than gold. The low I can remember on gold is in the $700-800 range and it's not hitting $4K. That's 5x. Silver, OTOH, has gone from under $4 to around $50 (twice) which is 10+x. Riding SILJ, SLVR, CEF, PSLV, SGDJ and as forever, some PRPFX. Getting clobbered on my short Tesla, but FEH, it's casino money. Have taken a stake in BKF - again for shits and giggles.

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https://www.numismaticnews.net/ever-climbing-precious-metals-market?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExQlRodGZ1N21TTXl3RXRNVwEetsiuvTesUl_c6RASyypHosQS_a4yTI6y6_VMWdDz1GrVYos6I4H-liMT76o_aem_Ub0IXFuiuZ24aPE4G_dU6g&h=AT0l_CTxFSxB2gIrKD_HsjNGwH_RiI_vJkw0lhtcFHs_2nxnj_nEdxcPghn9tvDXTO4EM4SoIu3Bv7hWU3TtcXL9TlrF2IgVZg5j_M9nnjyHomCF6PWXBfYyMNpYrrlZoQzHdyoYgA4PrAtD&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT2JSD-g0IYxcFjobt_xJMCVOnBLQFTjb5pa9Cb3-hf_5oZGUgAmJJ6OLJZUxKfNXhmIcTEvCyo4jXrhYvcRh77r5RTSEC665P-4Etlrn_zsJJAjT2JNddl71gHBjF_Wlgmd2rojgBgVcs-GuRgInr2fIgXLqj32yoZix1-OStpxw-_FNIBygReYly9DZIbW-tf0mxsqEr6gIlv_eTnv29BXLHo

Hope this article comes thru,

And so it goes,

Peace,

rono

Comments

  • JunksterJunkster
    edited October 7
    This year the story has been the decline of the dollar. It has juiced emerging market equities and debt (among many others) which many of us here have profitably and continue to embrace, But when I read phases like “ back up the truck and fill it” it is a bit worrisome - even more so after such price appreciation. I would take investment advice on any asset class from an avowed perennial bull or for that matter an avowed perennial bear with a grain of salt, When I see the likes of Mike Wilson pounding the table for gold it gets even more worrisome. Time will tell if we are at or near a top but in trading/investing over confidence can kill - unless of course we are talking about bitcoin. That has been a phenomenon that has completely left me in the dust.
  • JD_co
    In this environment, I like my PRPFX. But adding to it here is tough. PM and equities are in bubble territory.

    The markets can allow these bubbles to expand for a lengthy time as "fundamentals are so passe".

    Its a dangerous game at this point. Will you find a chair when the music stops?


    image
  • ronorono
    Howdy junkster,

    Long time. You make a great point. For the vast majority, back up the truck is 5-10%. Not to mention being careful getting into an ongoing bull market. DCA would be most appropriate

    That said, I honestly see this run lasting a long time and being a momentum investor, I've been scaling in for a while. At least since the election.

    Stay safe,

    Rono
  • JunksterJunkster
    edited October 7
    rono said:

    Howdy junkster,

    Long time. You make a great point. For the vast majority, back up the truck is 5-10%. Not to mention being careful getting into an ongoing bull market. DCA would be most appropriate

    That said, I honestly see this run lasting a long time and being a momentum investor, I've been scaling in for a while. At least since the election.

    Stay safe,

    Rono

    Thanks Ron, I understand where you are coming from. Personally, I think the dollar decline is still in the early innings so that should bode well for gold and the other assets that do well with a declining dollar. But I could be dead wrong and I am a worrier on any and all of my positions. I am always reminded of that saying ( by General Patton I think) that when everyone is thinking alike, someone isn’t thinking. That is most apropos on investment boards where everyone seeks out uniformity and confirmation from the crowd on their holdings.


  • DrVenture
    edited October 7
    Love to hear more thoughts on this topic from others. I own no PM (or bitcoin), but the temptation is always present. Still, big run ups and high valuations spook me more than anything else.

    I am interested in any asset class that might be a place to shift equity into. These daily "new highs" make me very uneasy. I am embracing bond oef for the first time in about 5 years. And bond cefs for a couple years now.

    What else makes sense if dollar keeps declining and equities are getting toppy?

    Edit to add: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/ray-dalio-says-today-is-like-the-early-1970s-and-investors-should-hold-more-gold-than-usual.html

    -Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world’s largest hedge funds, believes investors should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold.

    -The precious metal surged to an all-time high above $4,000 an ounce on Tuesday.

    -Dalio said gold stands apart as a hedge in times of monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    @DrVenture- you may not be familiar with Ron Owens ("rono") who started this post. He is one of MFO's very earliest members, and in earlier years posted quite frequently.

    rono has always been a guiding light on MFO regarding the proper place for gold and silver, both the bullion itself and associated interests such as miners, in a portfolio.

    He typically has exposure to both gold and silver, to about 10 or 15% if I recall correctly, and has frequently observed that when these are in an upward cycle (like now) as a percentage silver is likely to increase in value even more than gold.
  • DrVenture
    @Old_Joe

    Thanks for the clarification.
  • syzygy
    Thanks Ron Owens for the PM market update. You are a valuable resource.

    Nice interview with Don Durrett about miner stocks here:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828131-gold-and-silver-mining-stocks-potential-winners

    Pretty much in agreement with Ron Owens, Don Durrett concurs that silver miners have much greater profit potential than gold miners:
    "Currently, I use $5,000 gold and $100 silver. And I actually think those are conservative right now. I think they both need to be pushed up a little bit."

  • VirtueRunsDeep
    The first time I invested in gold and silver (CEF, IAU, and SIVR -- all in my retirement portfolios) was because I followed Rono on this Board. I've stuck with those investments for 15+years and I'm glad I did.

    THANK YOU, Rono -- for sharing your wisdom and perspective here. I'm glad to see you posting again.
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