Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I jumped through it. I appreciate his notion of "Investcom" stages akin to the military's "Defcon" stages, even though it's impossible to time it all just right. Trying to time a top or bottom, or a top or bottom in terms of investor sentiment, can't be done. But you can be "in the ballpark."
Marks is a pretty deep thinker. Few of us possess the equanimity and patience needed to be a deep value (distressed debt) investor like he is. His approach to markets & investing feels miles apart from equally successful Rick Rieder (linked by @equalizer in another thread). As an investor I think Marks’ time horizon is much longer than Rieder’s, although here Marks “zeros-in” on current valuations. Rieder likes what’s reasonably priced with good prospects. Marks (a lot like Buffett) waits for great bargains to appear.
although i enjoy reading marks to get re-centered, he is infuriating when it comes to practical execution.
my biggest gripe is although he has written reams on risk, he has never gone through (for the public) the hierarchy of methods for its estimation, which i imagine he has priortized for oaktree.
even here, his defcon scale only has 3 levels, admitting the other 3 are not practical (in his philosophy). thus, he settles into a tepid neutral rating, where i imagine he remains >90% of the time.
Comments
The wisdom, simplicity, and brevity, reminded me of Orwell's Politics and the English Language.
Marks is a pretty deep thinker. Few of us possess the equanimity and patience needed to be a deep value (distressed debt) investor like he is. His approach to markets & investing feels miles apart from equally successful Rick Rieder (linked by @equalizer in another thread). As an investor I think Marks’ time horizon is much longer than Rieder’s, although here Marks “zeros-in” on current valuations. Rieder likes what’s reasonably priced with good prospects. Marks (a lot like Buffett) waits for great bargains to appear.
my biggest gripe is although he has written reams on risk, he has never gone through (for the public) the hierarchy of methods for its estimation, which i imagine he has priortized for oaktree.
even here, his defcon scale only has 3 levels, admitting the other 3 are not practical (in his philosophy).
thus, he settles into a tepid neutral rating, where i imagine he remains >90% of the time.
a2z,
He wouldn’t directly answer question about debt outside USA. Why doesn’t he just say I don’t want to worry about currency risk?
I am thinking about reducing more equity exposure soon.