It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
U.S. imports of Brazilian beef have plummeted 80% in just three months, as President Donald Trump’s tariff crackdown begins to bite. Shipments tumbled from 47,800 tons in April — when a 10% tariff took effect — to just 9,700 tons so far in July. The looming 50% surcharge, scheduled for Aug. 1, is already reshaping trade flows and forcing exporters to reroute containers to beat the deadline.
Sharp decline in volume:
April: 47,800 tons
May: 27,400 tons
June: 18,200 tons
July (to date): 9,700 tons — an 80% drop from April
Rising prices for US buyers: Average import prices rose from $5,200/ton in April to $5,850/ton this week, a 12.5% increase, reflecting tighter supply and pre-emptive shipping costs.
Quota overrun: Brazil has already exported over 181,500 tons of beef to the US in the first half of 2025 — nearly three times its annual quota of 65,000 tons — meaning most exports are already facing steep tariffs even before the 50% surcharge.
Production impact: Some Brazilian meatpackers, including in Mato Grosso do Sul, have suspended shipments to the U.S., while other exporters are diverting cargo to alternate ports to ensure US entry before the Aug. 1 hike.
The US is Brazil’s second-largest beef export market after China, and Brazil remains the largest beef supplier to the US Despite record exports in early 2025, the current trajectory signals a severe correction if no deal is reached.
About 70% of Brazil’s beef is consumed domestically. Most U.S.-bound exports consist of forequarter cuts for hamburger production — a lower-margin export at risk of becoming uncompetitive under new tariffs.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla
Comments
Thank goodness we have new policy so that Prices will finally go down after we punish countries with massive tariffs.
Milei’s Strong Peso Drives Argentina Meatpackers to Import Beef from Brazil
Reports indicate that Argentina, a traditionally beef-exporting nation, is now importing beef due to the economic policies implemented by President Javier Milei.
Specifically, the strengthening of the Argentine peso under Milei's administration has made it more affordable for Argentinian meatpackers to purchase beef from abroad, particularly from Brazil, compared to sourcing it locally. This is driven by the fact that the stronger peso has pushed up the relative cost of Argentine beef, making it less competitive in the international market and for local consumption compared to imports.
This shift is a challenge for Argentina's beef industry, which has historically been a significant part of the country's economy. The situation also highlights the unexpected consequences of Milei's economic policies, which have been aimed at stabilizing the economy but have had a mixed impact on various sectors.
Very interesting and I know it’s almost late September and I should be back at school (MIT Sloan School), to take
15.218 Global Economic Challenges and Opportunities Course so I can make sense of peso crisis in Argentina.
I would like to go but …
I did go to MIT and Harvard, but the security guards chased me out.
Exam question-
A candidate for the Republican nomination (i.e., someone currently competing to become the presidential candidate) just said the following on CNBC: "The United States can run a large current account deficit for the indefinite future. Not only that, but there is no practical limit to the amount of debt the federal government can have.
We should cut taxes across the board to get the economy back on track." You work for a different Republican candidate. Write a memo summarizing the strong and weak points of the above statement and make a recommendation for how your candidate can respond.
I asked AI and it said that response is well meaning but could cause inflation and is national security threat, so we should cut spending and then cut taxes.
Isn’t this scenario and AI response exactly what is happening in 2025??
U'mmmm... the Greeks had some sort of AI oracle a long time ago. Nothing new, I guess.