US beef imports from Brazil collapse amid tariff shock

Old_Joe

Volumes down 80% since April

The following information is from an July 25 report from The Beef Site:

U.S. imports of Brazilian beef have plummeted 80% in just three months, as President Donald Trump’s tariff crackdown begins to bite. Shipments tumbled from 47,800 tons in April — when a 10% tariff took effect — to just 9,700 tons so far in July. The looming 50% surcharge, scheduled for Aug. 1, is already reshaping trade flows and forcing exporters to reroute containers to beat the deadline.

Sharp decline in volume:

April: 47,800 tons
May: 27,400 tons
June: 18,200 tons
July (to date): 9,700 tons — an 80% drop from April

Rising prices for US buyers: Average import prices rose from $5,200/ton in April to $5,850/ton this week, a 12.5% increase, reflecting tighter supply and pre-emptive shipping costs.

Quota overrun: Brazil has already exported over 181,500 tons of beef to the US in the first half of 2025 — nearly three times its annual quota of 65,000 tons — meaning most exports are already facing steep tariffs even before the 50% surcharge.

Production impact: Some Brazilian meatpackers, including in Mato Grosso do Sul, have suspended shipments to the U.S., while other exporters are diverting cargo to alternate ports to ensure US entry before the Aug. 1 hike.

The US is Brazil’s second-largest beef export market after China, and Brazil remains the largest beef supplier to the US Despite record exports in early 2025, the current trajectory signals a severe correction if no deal is reached.

About 70% of Brazil’s beef is consumed domestically. Most U.S.-bound exports consist of forequarter cuts for hamburger production — a lower-margin export at risk of becoming uncompetitive under new tariffs.

kings53man

Very good. Domestic producers will have a chance to fulfill the shortfall. This is what we want.

Old_Joe

If domestic producers had the capacity they would already be doing just that.

larryB

@kings53man. We? Is that the royal we? I don’t each much meat but when I do I don’t wanna pay more . Do you? Who are you speaking for?

larryB

And domestic producers are facing labor shortages for a multitude of reasons,,,,which will further increase prices. This is not what we want.

equalizer

Biden”s 8 years of massive inflation wrecked our country.

Thank goodness we have new policy so that Prices will finally go down after we punish countries with massive tariffs.

catch22

Meanwhile.....

Milei’s Strong Peso Drives Argentina Meatpackers to Import Beef from Brazil

Reports indicate that Argentina, a traditionally beef-exporting nation, is now importing beef due to the economic policies implemented by President Javier Milei.

Specifically, the strengthening of the Argentine peso under Milei's administration has made it more affordable for Argentinian meatpackers to purchase beef from abroad, particularly from Brazil, compared to sourcing it locally. This is driven by the fact that the stronger peso has pushed up the relative cost of Argentine beef, making it less competitive in the international market and for local consumption compared to imports.

This shift is a challenge for Argentina's beef industry, which has historically been a significant part of the country's economy. The situation also highlights the unexpected consequences of Milei's economic policies, which have been aimed at stabilizing the economy but have had a mixed impact on various sectors.

equalizer

Catch22,

Very interesting and I know it’s almost late September and I should be back at school (MIT Sloan School), to take
15.218 Global Economic Challenges and Opportunities Course so I can make sense of peso crisis in Argentina.
I would like to go but …

I did go to MIT and Harvard, but the security guards chased me out.

equalizer

Looked up MIT class 15.015 (Macroeconomics and International Economics). Jumped right to exam question and found this gem

Exam question-
A candidate for the Republican nomination (i.e., someone currently competing to become the presidential candidate) just said the following on CNBC: "The United States can run a large current account deficit for the indefinite future. Not only that, but there is no practical limit to the amount of debt the federal government can have.
We should cut taxes across the board to get the economy back on track." You work for a different Republican candidate. Write a memo summarizing the strong and weak points of the above statement and make a recommendation for how your candidate can respond.

I asked AI and it said that response is well meaning but could cause inflation and is national security threat, so we should cut spending and then cut taxes.
Isn’t this scenario and AI response exactly what is happening in 2025??

Sven

I asked AI and it said that response is well meaning but could cause inflation and is national security threat, so we should cut spending and then cut taxes.
Isn’t this scenario and AI response exactly what is happening in 2025??

Exactly! That is my experience with AI and the lack of details from their feedback. Thus, they can be interrupt multiple ways that nearly impossible to achieve an optimal outcome.

Old_Joe

"they can be [interpreted] multiple ways that [make it] nearly impossible to achieve an optimal outcome."

U'mmmm... the Greeks had some sort of AI oracle a long time ago. Nothing new, I guess.