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California saw a 3.1% drop in private-sector employment the week immediately after the Trump administration stepped up its immigration raids in the state, according to a new analysis of U.S. Census data. UC Merced researchers said the steep drop is second only to the unemployment surge the state experienced during the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, and greater than the immediate decline during the Great Recession in 2007 and 2008.
This appears to be the first analysis of the data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey from the time when federal agents’ focus on the state became clear in early June, when a raid at a garment factory in downtown Los Angeles preceded weeks of sweeps and unrest.
The Census Bureau surveys Americans every month about whether they worked the week before. The UC Merced researchers compared survey results from the week of May 11 to the week of June 8, and found that in California, more citizens than non-citizens reported that they did not work the week after that first raid.
The percentage decline would equate to a loss in California of 271,541 jobs from citizens and 193,428 non-citizens, the report said: “What we know from previous research is that the work that undocumented immigrants or non-citizens do does not exist in a vacuum,” Edward Flores, lead author of the report, told CalMatters. “If there’s disruptions to the work that undocumented immigrants do, it has ripple effects. A slowdown in one industry could cause slowdowns in other industries.”
That’s consistent with other studies that have shown that mass deportations of undocumented workers reduces job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, and studies that have shown the raids’ negative effects on local economies.
The effects of the enforcement may continue to be felt more strongly in California. The report also showed that the number of male citizen workers slightly increased in the rest of the U.S. compared with California during the same periods.
White and Latino workers in California were the most affected, the researchers found. The number of Latinos in California who reported work between May and June declined 5.6%, while the number of whites in the state who reported work during the same period decreased 5.3%, according to the report.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
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Comments
pbs (july 2025) interviewed an idaho farmer pleading to exempt his undocumented workers as raids affecting his farm economics. claimed these workers as "friends" he and his children had attended school with, but had no comment on the absolute brutality and illegal herding of workers nationwide.
remained unrepentant trump supporter (he actually bought into the farm\hotel pause trump promised) , but wished democrats could 'meet in the middle' to solve this issue.
cant fix stupid.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAUR
Now that you mention it, I don't think they've hit any part of the Central Valley. Maybe ICE doesn't like to visit places like Bakersfield or Modesto. But I haven't been paying close attention.
Oh Lord, I'm stuck in Lodi again