The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017

Comments

• lynnbolin2021

  July 14

  At this point, it looks mostly like noise. I count seventeen monthly budget surpluses since January 2017 with fourteen being more than $27B. We need to watch it for throughout the rest of the year to see the trend.
  
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSDS133FMS#
• Anna

  July 14 edited July 14

  Thanks @lynnbolin2021. If you blow up to a 10 yr period, then scan across the dates, you will notice that, with the exception of COVID, there is a spike in April of every year. I wonder why. I get a spike in my yearly cash flow in December since I RMD in December. My smoothed yearly and multi-year, not so spikey. It really depends on what programs and contracts are executed in a given time period. Fundamentally, after a budget is set, government agencies are required to execute the budget so monthly behavior doesn't matter so much except on the "executed on time" parameters. Fiscal year end, the expection is a success on both the "within budget" and "on time" parameters of government programs. The "within budget" targets a commitment of all funds allocated by the budget. Also, the government spends or allocates all revenues collected. There is no real long term savings account. The budget usually is not fully covered by the incoming new revenue. Of course, we almost never have surplus revenue but we always have a budget that is executed (backed up by sales of bonds), new revenue be pickled.
• catch22

  July 14

  Hi @Anna The April spikes are generally attributed to IRS tax season payments.
• Observant1

  July 14 edited July 14

  FD1000 said:

  The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017. Economists had expected a deficit of $41.5 billion for the month. A key factor was the surge in customs duties, which totaled roughly $27 billion for the month...up from $23 billion in May...

  That’s a $68.5 billion swing in the wrong direction for the experts.
  
  It’s not surprising to me. Economist forecasts make for great conversation—but that’s about it.
  
  If you choose to base your investments on their predictions, that’s your call.
  I don’t.

  It's not surprising when someone cherry-picks random data in a vain attempt to score a victory for "their side."
  The customs duties are not free money.
  How will tariffs affect U.S. consumers' finances and spending patterns?
  What will be the impact to company's margins?
  If you choose to ignore the consequences of ill-conceived tariff "plans," that's your call.
  I don't!
• AndyJ

  July 14 edited July 14

  Like a lot of smart observers noted during the previous time all eyes were on every inflation report, one month by itself means nothing, and one year is almost entirely backward-looking. A good compromise is three months, averaged or annualized -- mainly short-term, in the present, without so much of the potential variability in one very short term measurement.
• Crash

  July 14

  The 1-month surplus as reported in the news is not a lie, just a distraction. Over the next decade (unless a future Congress and President changes course) we are looking at a weaker and weaker dollar, with a national debt that is so big, it's hardly worth bothering to count, anymore. Hell, it's already there...
• lynnbolin2021

  July 15

  The headlines are pointing out that this is the first Federal budget surplus in June which is the first monthly surplus in June for the past five years. This is true. The other surpluses mostly occurred in April, but also in January, August, and September.
  
  Customs duties increased from $83B in 2024 to an annual rate of $96B in 2025 Q1. No doubt tariffs are increasing...
  
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA
• a2z

  July 15

  
  this surplus and inflation is well within noise. the latter has nothing to do with trump\gop. that has yet to come as a trailing indicator. real inflation under biden was due to supply shocks as any simpleton could grok.
  
  what is tump\gop are responsible for is the absolute level of prices for nearly everything, where many public promises of reducing were made and swallowed. put some numbers to that.
  
• DrVenture

  July 15

  Observant1 said:

  
  
  It's not surprising when someone cherry-picks random data in a vain attempt to score a victory for "their side."
  The customs duties are not free money.
  How will tariffs affect U.S. consumers' finances and spending patterns?
  What will be the impact to company's margins?
  If you choose to ignore the consequences of ill-conceived tariff "plans," that's your call.
  I don't!

  I agree. Tariffs will not only result in inflation, but any tariffs "absorbed" by companies will hit their profits and impact stocks negatively. A double whammy. Globalization ushered in a multi-decade era of prosperity, it appears that we are now going for the opposite.
  
  What is funny is that any tax will increase revenue, suddenly MAGA has a hankering for higher taxes on themselves. A tax masquerading as inflation.
  
  “Inflation has started a slow climb as signs of tariff-induced inflation are now evident within durable and nondurable imports,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S. “That prompts an important question: Will service and housing inflation, which is easing but still elevated, cool further to offset what will be a more pronounced increase in durable and nondurable goods?”
  
  “Our sense is that the Federal Reserve will continue to display patience as the direction of inflation evolves,” he added.