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The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
So, prudently looking ahead and paying attention should just not be a thing?
Attention to what? I always pay attention only to the markets and nothing to politics. I must see it in the price and charts, and when I do, I take action. I'm going from 99+% invested at most times to 99+% in MM sometimes. My record is pretty good.
The FEDs dual mandate is jobs and inflation. If both are good, why should Trump be insulting him over rates? Why should they lower? A direct answer will suffice.
It may be important to note that, in the absence of tariffs that are expected to result in $100 billion in added costs to U.S. businesses in 2024, that the FED may already have begun lowering rates. Trump's tariff policy is the reason the FED is on hold. Consequences of Trump's own actions. Cause and effect.
Another reliable voice (Former FED governor) says inflation numbers must be taken with "a grain of salt". Too early for the inflation to appear, as many importers are still rolling out pre-tariff supplies/materials that they previously stockpiled.
"Wages for blue-collar workers are up more in the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term than under any other president since 1969.
Bessent’s post includes a graph showing 1.7% wage growth for blue-collar workers, defined as nonsupervisory and production workers, during the first five months of Trump’s second term. The next highest wage growth rate for those workers since 1969 came during Trump’s first term, when it hit 1.3% over the first five months."
Excuse me if I temper my enthusiasm with the credibility of the source and a cherry-picked data set (YTD growth by president). I'd like to hope that you're correct but my field of reference comes from a pool of blue collar friends who haven't seen any raises at all.
Credibility of the Daily Wire - "Many Daily Wire stories repackage journalism from traditional news organizations while adding a conservative slant. Fact checkers have said that some stories shared by The Daily Wire are unverified, and that The Daily Wire sometimes misstates facts to advance a partisan view."
heavy bifurcation, likely to worsen such that blue vs white collar means less. skilled plumbers, welders, electricians,etc...has been rising steeply for 2 decades. factory or unskilled workers at the whim of other things...better be on the lucky side of special interests.
i have a skilled worker friend who was making so much, he closed his own small business and took a 30% paycut to join larger outfit where he had no admin\managerial duties. and he has a family.
Whenever possible I like to have the data verified independently by several sources. Having quality content is important. Some sites including Reuters and BBC have degraded in my opinion. Bloomberg is good but it requires subscription.
"Federal Open Market Committee participants said at their June meeting that they expect the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, to increase at a 3.1% rate in 2025, higher than their prior forecast of 2.8% in March."
It took me a bit to figure out what the purported stats were about. They took the first 5 months (a cherry-picked slice or time) of each President going back to Nixon, the subtracted inflation from nominal wage growth to get "real" wage growth. The. numbers are "enhanced" by the recent drop in inflation, while wage growth itself was nothing particularly out of the ordinary.
For instance, if nominal wage growth were 4% monthly on average, but inflation went from 3% to 2.3%, the real wage growth would go from 1% to 1.7%. A function of inflation. To conclude that this is Trump's work is laughable, as we were already experiencing wage competition in blue collar industries, and inflation has been trending downward for more than a year.
No way that Trump brought down inflation in only 5 months with "America First" policies. No causal connection at all, in fact. And the wage growth in nominal terms was already being driven upward and is actually lower than Biden's last year. Hourly wages at 4.1% growth vs 5.5% peak in early 2024.
What we have here is statistically tomfoolery. P T Barnum level stuff.
The current numbers don't accurately represent the effect of tariffs. Get back to me after the September, October, or November numbers are released. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
The current numbers don't accurately represent the effect of tariffs. Get back to me after the September, October, or November numbers are released. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
The number right now is great. After Sep we can discuss other matters. Why wait for Sep? Why not wait for 1-2 years from now and claim other stuff? Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Because it will take time for the impact of tariffs to be reflected in the inflation data. I don't know exactly how long this will take but we should have evidence by year-end.
Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders' recent article asks the question: "Complation"…Is there too much complacency regarding inflation?
"The rub is that much of the economic data outside of direct inflation readings suggest higher inflation ahead. Both key purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)—the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global—show that output prices have jumped to levels akin to the early part of the pandemic. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey is also showing that a higher-than-average number of small businesses are raising prices, or plan to. Many high-profile larger companies have announced price increases as well—including Walmart, Macy's, Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, Mattel, Adidas, Ralph Lauren, Stanley Black & Decker, Best Buy, Microsoft, and Nintendo."
"What's also notable is the still-wide gap between the discretionary ("wants") and non-discretionary ("needs") components of the CPI. As shown below, although there has been some convergence between the two, needs' prices are running at about twice the level of wants' prices; disproportionately hurting lower-income consumers."
I started this thread to show good numbers now; that's about it. I wanted to see if anyone could acknowledge it. Nope, and as expected. I dismiss economists, and that's not a secret. They really shot in the dark, many times were wrong about the future, and never made me money. You ask 10 economists what will happen in 6-12 months and what to do about it, and you get many answers.
The economy does not have a high correlation to markets. I want to make money in any market currently, not in the future, and that's why I only look at stuff lately. As expected, Powell admitted that he is not going to cut rates now because he is afraid to make a mistake, while he has been telling us for months that the Fed decisions are made based on the data. Listening to generic economists is a waste of time. I listen to the Fed very carefully because I invest in bond funds, and rates are important.
Instead of Sonders read Mnuchin Mnuchin actually made real economic decisions.
"In an interview with CNBC, Mnuchin expressed agreement with criticisms of the Fed’s pace in adjusting rates, stating that “the market isn’t waiting for the fed to act” and has already priced in these anticipated cuts.
Mnuchin dismissed concerns that tariffs would drive inflation, noting that “we’ve collected significant tariff revenue without it having an impact on inflation.”
He also expressed optimism about upcoming trade negotiations, suggesting that President Donald Trump may announce several new trade deals soon or extend the July deadline if negotiations are progressing well.
On international trade policy, Mnuchin explained that reciprocal tariffs were “designed to get people to the negotiation table” to ensure “fair and reciprocal trade.” He said that while progress has been made with China, “there’s still a lot of work left to do with China and others,” including India and Japan, but anticipated these negotiations would reach the “finish line” with agreements on “major concepts” and tariff rates.
On domestic economic policy, Mnuchin emphasized the importance of passing legislation to extend “the Trump tax cuts” and address other market concerns.
“Economic growth helps a lot,” he stated regarding deficit reduction, adding that “the difference between 2-3% shrinks the deficits a lot,” while cautioning that without sufficient growth, “we’re going to have to look at continued cutting of government spending.”
What should you do? Dismiss all economists; that's what I do.
It's interesting when someone presents an extremely weak argument and then tries to substantiate it with a cherry-picked article featuring an individual who, in all likelihood, is biased due to prior association.
What should you do? Refer to information from multiple sources that prioritize fair and accurate reporting; that's what I do.
What is weak about the numbers? All you have done is to talk about the unknown future while the latest numbers show good results. PCE+PPI are Gov data. I didn't make them up. You just don't like these numbers.
I've failed miserably in my numerous attempts to educate you about this matter. You created a thread named "The Fed Is Getting It Wrong AGAIN As They Hold Rates Steady" on the BIG BANG! Investors forum several days ago. Multiple participants added insightful commentary to this thread earlier today. Perhaps their "words of wisdom" will help you appreciate the true risks associated with the current economic environment. Wishing you great success on your quest for the TRUTH!
We are supposed to believe that some magical administration policies brought down inflation in mere months, without specifying which policies actually did this. It's a hoot.
Hell, if he can do that, he doesn't need the FED to lower rates. He can just apply more magic sauce. Show us how it works. The laughable part of all this, is that the same quarters that said Powell lowered rates too soon last year, now are begging for more rate cuts. Pick a lane.
But, I am open to learning. So, let's hear exactly which policies caused this inflation relief and the mechanism behind it? Explain the causation. Was it taxing all imports at historic levels? That would suggest demand destruction. In that case, look out below. 1Q GDP was -0.5%. Maybe we are on to something here.
Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders' recent article asks the question: "Complation"…Is there too much complacency regarding inflation?
"The rub is that much of the economic data outside of direct inflation readings suggest higher inflation ahead. Both key purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)—the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global—show that output prices have jumped to levels akin to the early part of the pandemic. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey is also showing that a higher-than-average number of small businesses are raising prices, or plan to. Many high-profile larger companies have announced price increases as well—including Walmart, Macy's, Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, Mattel, Adidas, Ralph Lauren, Stanley Black & Decker, Best Buy, Microsoft, and Nintendo."
"What's also notable is the still-wide gap between the discretionary ("wants") and non-discretionary ("needs") components of the CPI. As shown below, although there has been some convergence between the two, needs' prices are running at about twice the level of wants' prices; disproportionately hurting lower-income consumers."
I wonder how many companies are opting to slowly boil that frog, by quietly and incrementally raising prices, without actually saying anything. To draw no attention to themselves.
Cherry-picked stats by the OP are not to be taken seriously. Best to be used as a springboard to highlight the total inanity of the circumstances. And an opportunity to set the record straight. A chart of the S&P for the past 2 1/2 years tells an interesting story. 25% back-to-back gains until a wall was hit. That wall was Trump's policies. as soon as he backed off, the market responded positively, still only up 3-4% YTD, instead of 10-15% the trend was implying we should have.
The market wants to surge and he won't let it. He wants loose FED policy, tantamount to stimulus, to cover for his trade/tariff failures. If his policies were working, they would not need artificial help. Mr Market would be running with it.
There is zero historical evidence that even aggressive FED policy calms inflation in months. What we are witnessing is the results of more than two years of FED policy decisions. And someone trying to steal credit for that, while attacking the architect. Biden had two years of the highest FED fund rates in decades and wasn't whining about the hand he was dealt. Instead we had +50% cumulative S&P gains.
The only thing different, and holding the market back, is current trade policy and all the underlying chaos in the disjointed messaging. This guy was handed a roaring economy and is squandering it. Many of the business leaders who supported him are now distancing themselves and hoping for relief.
"We are supposed to believe that some magical administration policies brought down inflation in mere months, without specifying which policies actually did this. It's a hoot."
Hey, since everything that's bad has happened because of something that Biden was supposed to have done, then it's only fair and "obvious" that anything good must also be to Biden's credit.
LOL - Imagine that it were Biden who was handed a roaring stock market and within months had produced a correction, one expressly tied to his policies. Would the OP be ignoring that and handing him credit for 2 1/2 years of FED policy? And utterly focused on a few benign, likely premature, inflation prints?
But, I am open to learning. So, let's hear exactly which policies caused this inflation relief and the mechanism behind it? Explain the causation. Was it taxing all imports at historic levels? That would suggest demand destruction. In that case, look out below. 1Q GDP was -0.5%. Maybe we are on to something here.
The only thing he did was talk his buddies the Saudi's into producing more oil (twice) which he thought would bring down price as oil is an outsized price factor of almost all goods when you figure in transportation etc... I still think he's supplying them with something they really want. LIV support or arms technology? It did come down about $10 since the beginning of the year but yet gas prices are about $0.20 higher than the beginning of the year. Go figure....
Comments
I always pay attention only to the markets and nothing to politics. I must see it in the price and charts, and when I do, I take action. I'm going from 99+% invested at most times to 99+% in MM sometimes. My record is pretty good.
@DrVenture Cutting doesn't mean 1% tomorrow. It means 0.25% tomorrow, and let's see. It's all relative and based on the numbers.
Another reliable voice (Former FED governor) says inflation numbers must be taken with "a grain of salt". Too early for the inflation to appear, as many importers are still rolling out pre-tariff supplies/materials that they previously stockpiled.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/under-trump-blue-collar-wages-soar-at-fastest-rate-since-1969
"Wages for blue-collar workers are up more in the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term than under any other president since 1969.
Bessent’s post includes a graph showing 1.7% wage growth for blue-collar workers, defined as nonsupervisory and production workers, during the first five months of Trump’s second term. The next highest wage growth rate for those workers since 1969 came during Trump’s first term, when it hit 1.3% over the first five months."
Credibility of the Daily Wire - "Many Daily Wire stories repackage journalism from traditional news organizations while adding a conservative slant. Fact checkers have said that some stories shared by The Daily Wire are unverified, and that The Daily Wire sometimes misstates facts to advance a partisan view."
skilled plumbers, welders, electricians,etc...has been rising steeply for 2 decades.
factory or unskilled workers at the whim of other things...better be on the lucky side of special interests.
i have a skilled worker friend who was making so much, he closed his own small business and took a 30% paycut to join larger outfit where he had no admin\managerial duties. and he has a family.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/federal-reserve-dot-plot-and-economic-projection-june-2025.html
"Federal Open Market Committee participants said at their June meeting that they expect the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, to increase at a 3.1% rate in 2025, higher than their prior forecast of 2.8% in March."
For instance, if nominal wage growth were 4% monthly on average, but inflation went from 3% to 2.3%, the real wage growth would go from 1% to 1.7%. A function of inflation. To conclude that this is Trump's work is laughable, as we were already experiencing wage competition in blue collar industries, and inflation has been trending downward for more than a year.
No way that Trump brought down inflation in only 5 months with "America First" policies. No causal connection at all, in fact. And the wage growth in nominal terms was already being driven upward and is actually lower than Biden's last year. Hourly wages at 4.1% growth vs 5.5% peak in early 2024.
What we have here is statistically tomfoolery. P T Barnum level stuff.
Play with this for a more revealing picture:
https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker#Tab1
Yes way. If the numbers went the opposite way, you would scream it's all Trump's fault. That was easy
Let's see what unfolds in the months ahead.
It's OK to admit it without...well, eggs are expensive.
Get back to me after the September, October, or November numbers are released.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
After Sep we can discuss other matters. Why wait for Sep? Why not wait for 1-2 years from now and claim other stuff?
Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Because it will take time for the impact of tariffs to be reflected in the inflation data.
I don't know exactly how long this will take but we should have evidence by year-end.
"Complation"…Is there too much complacency regarding inflation?
"The rub is that much of the economic data outside of direct inflation readings suggest higher inflation ahead. Both key purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)—the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global—show that output prices have jumped to levels akin to the early part of the pandemic. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey is also showing that a higher-than-average number of small businesses are raising prices, or plan to. Many high-profile larger companies have announced price increases as well—including Walmart, Macy's, Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, Mattel, Adidas, Ralph Lauren, Stanley Black & Decker, Best Buy, Microsoft, and Nintendo."
"What's also notable is the still-wide gap between the discretionary ("wants") and non-discretionary ("needs") components of the CPI. As shown below, although there has been some convergence between the two, needs' prices are running at about twice the level of wants' prices; disproportionately hurting lower-income consumers."
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-going-onwith-inflation
I dismiss economists, and that's not a secret. They really shot in the dark, many times were wrong about the future, and never made me money.
You ask 10 economists what will happen in 6-12 months and what to do about it, and you get many answers.
The economy does not have a high correlation to markets. I want to make money in any market currently, not in the future, and that's why I only look at stuff lately.
As expected, Powell admitted that he is not going to cut rates now because he is afraid to make a mistake, while he has been telling us for months that the Fed decisions are made based on the data. Listening to generic economists is a waste of time. I listen to the Fed very carefully because I invest in bond funds, and rates are important.
Instead of Sonders read Mnuchin
Mnuchin actually made real economic decisions.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/mnuchin-expects-fed-to-cut-rates-by-75-100-bps-over-the-next-year/ar-AA1HkGVq
"In an interview with CNBC, Mnuchin expressed agreement with criticisms of the Fed’s pace in adjusting rates, stating that “the market isn’t waiting for the fed to act” and has already priced in these anticipated cuts.
Mnuchin dismissed concerns that tariffs would drive inflation, noting that “we’ve collected significant tariff revenue without it having an impact on inflation.”
He also expressed optimism about upcoming trade negotiations, suggesting that President Donald Trump may announce several new trade deals soon or extend the July deadline if negotiations are progressing well.
On international trade policy, Mnuchin explained that reciprocal tariffs were “designed to get people to the negotiation table” to ensure “fair and reciprocal trade.” He said that while progress has been made with China, “there’s still a lot of work left to do with China and others,” including India and Japan, but anticipated these negotiations would reach the “finish line” with agreements on “major concepts” and tariff rates.
On domestic economic policy, Mnuchin emphasized the importance of passing legislation to extend “the Trump tax cuts” and address other market concerns.
“Economic growth helps a lot,” he stated regarding deficit reduction, adding that “the difference between 2-3% shrinks the deficits a lot,” while cautioning that without sufficient growth, “we’re going to have to look at continued cutting of government spending.”
What should you do?
Dismiss all economists; that's what I do.
with a cherry-picked article featuring an individual who, in all likelihood, is biased due to prior association.
What should you do?
Refer to information from multiple sources that prioritize fair and accurate reporting; that's what I do.
All you have done is to talk about the unknown future while the latest numbers show good results.
PCE+PPI are Gov data. I didn't make them up. You just don't like these numbers.
You created a thread named "The Fed Is Getting It Wrong AGAIN As They Hold Rates Steady"
on the BIG BANG! Investors forum several days ago.
Multiple participants added insightful commentary to this thread earlier today.
Perhaps their "words of wisdom" will help you appreciate the true risks
associated with the current economic environment.
Wishing you great success on your quest for the TRUTH!
Hell, if he can do that, he doesn't need the FED to lower rates. He can just apply more magic sauce. Show us how it works. The laughable part of all this, is that the same quarters that said Powell lowered rates too soon last year, now are begging for more rate cuts. Pick a lane.
But, I am open to learning. So, let's hear exactly which policies caused this inflation relief and the mechanism behind it? Explain the causation. Was it taxing all imports at historic levels? That would suggest demand destruction. In that case, look out below. 1Q GDP was -0.5%. Maybe we are on to something here.
Cherry-picked stats by the OP are not to be taken seriously. Best to be used as a springboard to highlight the total inanity of the circumstances. And an opportunity to set the record straight. A chart of the S&P for the past 2 1/2 years tells an interesting story. 25% back-to-back gains until a wall was hit. That wall was Trump's policies. as soon as he backed off, the market responded positively, still only up 3-4% YTD, instead of 10-15% the trend was implying we should have.
The market wants to surge and he won't let it. He wants loose FED policy, tantamount to stimulus, to cover for his trade/tariff failures. If his policies were working, they would not need artificial help. Mr Market would be running with it.
There is zero historical evidence that even aggressive FED policy calms inflation in months. What we are witnessing is the results of more than two years of FED policy decisions. And someone trying to steal credit for that, while attacking the architect. Biden had two years of the highest FED fund rates in decades and wasn't whining about the hand he was dealt. Instead we had +50% cumulative S&P gains.
The only thing different, and holding the market back, is current trade policy and all the underlying chaos in the disjointed messaging. This guy was handed a roaring economy and is squandering it. Many of the business leaders who supported him are now distancing themselves and hoping for relief.
Hey, since everything that's bad has happened because of something that Biden was supposed to have done, then it's only fair and "obvious" that anything good must also be to Biden's credit.