Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The U.S. has many vulnerable bases in the immediate Mideast area, and there has been plenty of time for a reflexive retaliatory attack by Iran. The fact that that hasn't happened gives me some hope that the Iranian religious leadership is carefully considering their options and response.
Also, Israel has not attempted to destroy Iran's main source of income- their oil exporting industry... also very vulnerable and easy targets for an air war.
Maybe- just maybe- this will settle out at the present state of things.
The iron dome has its limits. Waves of drones cannot be all shot down simultaneously. Three potential targets: 1. Israel. 2. Strait of Hormuz. It’s only 6 miles wide, and thus susceptible to attack. Tsp tankers made U-turn a way form this area. Oil prices rose to $75 barrel. 3. US bases in Middle East.
The iron dome has its limits. Waves of drones cannot be all shot down simultaneously. Three potential targets: 1. Israel. 2. Strait of Hormuz. It’s only 6 miles wide, and thus susceptible to attack. Tsp tankers made U-turn a way form this area. Oil prices rose to $75 barrel. 3. US bases in Middle East.
add: 4. random American and Israeli targets worldwide. Asymmetrical warfare. Congress does indeed need to reassert its own control over the War Powers Act. But of course the Repugnant Majority at the moment is content to go along for the ride. Free Pass for the Orange Abomination. Maintaining control and power trumps the Constitution.
Boeing makes the MOP. They appear to specialize in things that fall from the sky and result in destruction.
If one is looking for investment opportunity here, perhaps Northrup Grumman (B-2 manufacturer) is the better long term investment.
The Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman a [service] contract worth up to $7 billion ... set to run through 2029. ... The Air Force is notionally planning to retire the dual-capable B-2 in the early 2030s — replacing it with the B-21 Raider, also a Northrop Grumman product ... Officials expect to buy at least 100 B-21s, which will replace both the B-2 and Boeing B-1 Lancer. The Air Force will then drop to a two-bomber fleet, [... the B-21s] and Boeing’s B-52 Stratofortress
1pm, EST CNN tv reports missile attacks at Doha, Qatar (U.S. airbase) and a U.S. installation in Iraq. No surface impacts indicated at Doha. Not much on internet news feeds at this time. Israel AF continues to bomb numerous targets in Iran.
The Iranian regime needs to attack the U.S. to "save face." These attacks may very well be symbolic. Iran is currently very weak and knows the U.S. could annihilate their country if they overreach.
Boeing makes the MOP. They appear to specialize in things that fall from the sky and result in destruction.
If one is looking for investment opportunity here, perhaps Northrup Grumman (B-2 manufacturer) is the better long term investment.
The Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman a [service] contract worth up to $7 billion ... set to run through 2029. ... The Air Force is notionally planning to retire the dual-capable B-2 in the early 2030s — replacing it with the B-21 Raider, also a Northrop Grumman product ... Officials expect to buy at least 100 B-21s, which will replace both the B-2 and Boeing B-1 Lancer. The Air Force will then drop to a two-bomber fleet, [... the B-21s] and Boeing’s B-52 Stratofortress
I have been considering buying NOC for a long while. I have several friends that work there, actually. M* thinks they are well below FMV ($620). Currently up 7% YTD.
I do own RTX, as a spinoff of UTX. It has served me well and is up around 27% YTD. And a 5-yr return of ~20% annually.
Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now? The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war. Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for stocks and 4-5% for bonds, that's great for my style of mostly unique bond funds. I will take 6% for the next 10 years.
As I said before, no need to complicate things and invest based on your age, goals and style.
The war started on June 13th, 10 days ago. SPY is up over 1% The iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) is up 9.5%. Did anyone predict that?
Comments
Also, Israel has not attempted to destroy Iran's main source of income- their oil exporting industry... also very vulnerable and easy targets for an air war.
Maybe- just maybe- this will settle out at the present state of things.
1. Israel.
2. Strait of Hormuz. It’s only 6 miles wide, and thus susceptible to attack. Tsp tankers made U-turn a way form this area. Oil prices rose to $75 barrel.
3. US bases in Middle East.
4. random American and Israeli targets worldwide. Asymmetrical warfare. Congress does indeed need to reassert its own control over the War Powers Act. But of course the Repugnant Majority at the moment is content to go along for the ride. Free Pass for the Orange Abomination. Maintaining control and power trumps the Constitution.
If one is looking for investment opportunity here, perhaps Northrup Grumman (B-2 manufacturer) is the better long term investment. https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/northrop-wins-7-billion-air-force-contract-for-more-b-2-sustainment-upgrades/
Israel AF continues to bomb numerous targets in Iran.
Symbolic only ?
These attacks may very well be symbolic.
Iran is currently very weak and knows the U.S. could annihilate their country if they overreach.
I do own RTX, as a spinoff of UTX. It has served me well and is up around 27% YTD. And a 5-yr return of ~20% annually.
The war started on June 13th, 10 days ago.
SPY is up over 1%
The iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) is up 9.5%. Did anyone predict that?