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The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
So, prudently looking ahead and paying attention should just not be a thing?
Attention to what? I always pay attention only to the markets and nothing to politics. I must see it in the price and charts, and when I do, I take action. I'm going from 99+% invested at most times to 99+% in MM sometimes. My record is pretty good.
The FEDs dual mandate is jobs and inflation. If both are good, why should Trump be insulting him over rates? Why should they lower? A direct answer will suffice.
It may be important to note that, in the absence of tariffs that are expected to result in $100 billion in added costs to U.S. businesses in 2024, that the FED may already have begun lowering rates. Trump's tariff policy is the reason the FED is on hold. Consequences of Trump's own actions. Cause and effect.
Another reliable voice (Former FED governor) says inflation numbers must be taken with "a grain of salt". Too early for the inflation to appear, as many importers are still rolling out pre-tariff supplies/materials that they previously stockpiled.
"Wages for blue-collar workers are up more in the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term than under any other president since 1969.
Bessent’s post includes a graph showing 1.7% wage growth for blue-collar workers, defined as nonsupervisory and production workers, during the first five months of Trump’s second term. The next highest wage growth rate for those workers since 1969 came during Trump’s first term, when it hit 1.3% over the first five months."
Excuse me if I temper my enthusiasm with the credibility of the source and a cherry-picked data set (YTD growth by president). I'd like to hope that you're correct but my field of reference comes from a pool of blue collar friends who haven't seen any raises at all.
Credibility of the Daily Wire - "Many Daily Wire stories repackage journalism from traditional news organizations while adding a conservative slant. Fact checkers have said that some stories shared by The Daily Wire are unverified, and that The Daily Wire sometimes misstates facts to advance a partisan view."
heavy bifurcation, likely to worsen such that blue vs white collar means less. skilled plumbers, welders, electricians,etc...has been rising steeply for 2 decades. factory or unskilled workers at the whim of other things...better be on the lucky side of special interests.
i have a skilled worker friend who was making so much, he closed his own small business and took a 30% paycut to join larger outfit where he had no admin\managerial duties. and he has a family.
Whenever possible I like to have the data verified independently by several sources. Having quality content is important. Some sites including Reuters and BBC have degraded in my opinion. Bloomberg is good but it requires subscription.
"Federal Open Market Committee participants said at their June meeting that they expect the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, to increase at a 3.1% rate in 2025, higher than their prior forecast of 2.8% in March."
It took me a bit to figure out what the purported stats were about. They took the first 5 months (a cherry-picked slice or time) of each President going back to Nixon, the subtracted inflation from nominal wage growth to get "real" wage growth. The. numbers are "enhanced" by the recent drop in inflation, while wage growth itself was nothing particularly out of the ordinary.
For instance, if nominal wage growth were 4% monthly on average, but inflation went from 3% to 2.3%, the real wage growth would go from 1% to 1.7%. A function of inflation. To conclude that this is Trump's work is laughable, as we were already experiencing wage competition in blue collar industries, and inflation has been trending downward for more than a year.
No way that Trump brought down inflation in only 5 months with "America First" policies. No causal connection at all, in fact. And the wage growth in nominal terms was already being driven upward and is actually lower than Biden's last year. Hourly wages at 4.1% growth vs 5.5% peak in early 2024.
What we have here is statistically tomfoolery. P T Barnum level stuff.
Comments
I always pay attention only to the markets and nothing to politics. I must see it in the price and charts, and when I do, I take action. I'm going from 99+% invested at most times to 99+% in MM sometimes. My record is pretty good.
@DrVenture Cutting doesn't mean 1% tomorrow. It means 0.25% tomorrow, and let's see. It's all relative and based on the numbers.
Another reliable voice (Former FED governor) says inflation numbers must be taken with "a grain of salt". Too early for the inflation to appear, as many importers are still rolling out pre-tariff supplies/materials that they previously stockpiled.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/under-trump-blue-collar-wages-soar-at-fastest-rate-since-1969
"Wages for blue-collar workers are up more in the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term than under any other president since 1969.
Bessent’s post includes a graph showing 1.7% wage growth for blue-collar workers, defined as nonsupervisory and production workers, during the first five months of Trump’s second term. The next highest wage growth rate for those workers since 1969 came during Trump’s first term, when it hit 1.3% over the first five months."
Credibility of the Daily Wire - "Many Daily Wire stories repackage journalism from traditional news organizations while adding a conservative slant. Fact checkers have said that some stories shared by The Daily Wire are unverified, and that The Daily Wire sometimes misstates facts to advance a partisan view."
skilled plumbers, welders, electricians,etc...has been rising steeply for 2 decades.
factory or unskilled workers at the whim of other things...better be on the lucky side of special interests.
i have a skilled worker friend who was making so much, he closed his own small business and took a 30% paycut to join larger outfit where he had no admin\managerial duties. and he has a family.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/federal-reserve-dot-plot-and-economic-projection-june-2025.html
"Federal Open Market Committee participants said at their June meeting that they expect the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, to increase at a 3.1% rate in 2025, higher than their prior forecast of 2.8% in March."
For instance, if nominal wage growth were 4% monthly on average, but inflation went from 3% to 2.3%, the real wage growth would go from 1% to 1.7%. A function of inflation. To conclude that this is Trump's work is laughable, as we were already experiencing wage competition in blue collar industries, and inflation has been trending downward for more than a year.
No way that Trump brought down inflation in only 5 months with "America First" policies. No causal connection at all, in fact. And the wage growth in nominal terms was already being driven upward and is actually lower than Biden's last year. Hourly wages at 4.1% growth vs 5.5% peak in early 2024.
What we have here is statistically tomfoolery. P T Barnum level stuff.
Play with this for a more revealing picture:
https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker#Tab1