From the WSJ’s market recap today:
“U.S. stocks rallied, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing more than 4% and entering a new bull market by ending the day up more than 20% from its recent low. The Dow industrials jumped above where it closed on April 2, before Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs sent markets into a tailspin. It ended the day more than 1,100 points higher. Shares of companies that had been punished by the trade war, such as Amazon, Apple and Tesla, advanced. The dollar jumped, bond yields rose, and investors scaled back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.”
From Mark Twain: "Persons attempting to find a motive in this narrative will be prosecuted; persons attempting to find a moral in it will be banished; persons attempting to find a plot in it will be shot"
Comments
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 72.41% (overbought now!)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 66.91% (positive)
There data much improved vs last Friday.
My trades Monday between 9:30 and 10:00 AM (sell 2 stocks / buy 2 CEFs) had been planned over the weekend. Had little to do with the ”unliberation” event. Fido’s site seemed a bit slow but worked. After the trades successfully executed and I attempted to rearrange some deck chairs inside their optional $4.99 basket, that feature seemed to grind to a halt for 5 or 10 minutes. Window dressing only. Did not involve any trades.
I always wonder what prompts retail investors to engage in heavier trading on these big market days? Best guess for yesterday is many were cashing in after getting back to break-even - but don’t know.
10 year Treasury yield and US dollar went up. Will see what inflation data brings today.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-group-stock-sinks-as-ceo-steps-down-company-suspends-guidance-135257453.html
”Bulls should also be celebrating the S&P 500’s move above its 200-day moving average, an important technical milestone, on Monday.”
“Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial … said that the recent trade deal progress ‘has led to a likely peak in investor fear and policy uncertainty.’ “
“Along those lines, the Cboe Volatility Index or VIX, a measure often referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, has tumbled from a heightened level of above 50 in early April all the way back to just over 18. The slide in the VIX—coupled with a move above the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500—typically bodes very well for stocks.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-s-p-500-moving-average-8f058112?st=hbiBqE
In summary:
- in January 2025 Ives forecast a 25% gain for tech stocks in the year.
- In late March / early April he turned bearish calling Trump’s tariff war a “disaster” for the sector.
- Last week after the tariff truce with China, Ives again turned very bullish on the sector.
Here’s Ives on Bloomberg last week.:
Disclosure: In this thread I’ve tried to share some positive takes on the markets in hopes it adds to our broad perspective. None of this is not intended as investment advice. I do not invest in technology stocks or funds due to my age / personal circumstance. I haven’t for many years. Nor do invest in any SPX index funds. Never have. But watching the S&P may still shed light on the overall market.
(knowing when one has enough is a superpower; allowing rational determinism to weigh risk, letting forecasters and technical voodoo do their thing)
DAVID EINHORN: "Regardless of where trade policy eventually settles, it is contributing to the growth slowdown. There has been a surge of economic activity that front-ran the tariffs. ...Bear markets do not go straight down. They are punctuated with ‘rip-your-face-off’ rallies based on big headlines, extreme investor sentiment, and experience that buying the dip usually pays off."
Absolutely correct. Thanks for posting. I’m glad I don’t try to time markets. I have a model portfolio allocation and stay with the plan. Add or lighten up on occasion. Rebalance often.
I’ll say one person tried to dissuade me from investing back in early April based on geopolitical issues. I’m very happy to have ignored the well intentioned advice and to have been buying back then rather than selling. But I’m a gambler at heart.
I suspect @a2z would agree with me that investors need a plan. And that it’s important to avoid subjecting one’s life savings to knee-jerk emotional decisions. I read Bill Fleckenstein daily as a long time subscriber (10+ years) and mostly agree with his long held views on the major U.S. stock indexes. I won’t try to characterize those views here, but a web search should pull them up if anybody cares. So a greedy bleary-eyed overly optimistic stock “bull” I definitely am not.