Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
This rhymes and has me scratching my head. It was a mistake but we stand by it and will keep the Harvard money. It was a mistake but we stand by it and can't bring him back and will pay El Salvadore to keep him.
Oh, now that I put it that, it suddenly makes sense. We need the funds from Harvard to pay the dictator in El Salvadore.
"Three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump effectively declared a trade war with the entire world, new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial fallout. A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to lower its outlook for economic growth in new projections released on Tuesday.
The following day, purchasing manager indexes from Japan to Europe to the U.S. will offer the first coordinated glimpse of manufacturing and services activity since Trump’s global tariffs — now partly on hold — were unleashed on April 2. Business surveys from major economies are also on the calendar.
The combined picture is set to offer finance ministers and central bankers assembled in Washington a chance to make initial damage assessments on Trump’s attempt to rewire the global trade system.
Further north..... Retail data for February and a flash estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers pared back their spending for a third straight month amid the trade uncertainty."
I can't believe how stupid the Trump administration has become.
Step 1. We want everyone to buy more of our products. Step 2. Piss off as much as possible the people who buy our products.
Think about it, they have an example of those steps right in front of them. Musk tried those 2 steps, did anyone in the admin ask how it's working out for him?
All they had to do is say they MIGHT have a deal with China, and this schizo market cheers up (short-term). Of course, major victory will be declared by the US regime no matter what the actual terms end up being.
The only problem is that no country will trust us for the next 4 years and our name is now "Mudd" on the international stage.
as predicted, trump now claiming to be 'china friendly' means he is full turtle mode.
only a question of how much china gains simply by demanding greater concessions based on his inability to honor a deal. but the fact china has that trait in common means there is some foundation both grok.
This morning's POLITICO Playbook was amusing reading ..... seems the WH continues to cave on trade. Not only is FOTUS changing his public tune again on China and the Fed chair, but they’re now trying to ink ‘Memorandums of Understanding’ with countries vs. full trade agreements or Navarro's "easy 90 agreements in 90 days" - in other words, they’re going to officially agree to talk about future agreements & calling it a ‘win’ for Donnie. Lipstick on a pig face-saving moves.
But the damage has already been done, trust has been lost, and IMO it's quite possible in the comign years that the global economic system will be restructured *around* the US, not necessarily *through* the US.
I should add that it's IMF/World Bank meeting week down here so of course he’s getting very ‘yippy’ about things when the *real* power players of the world assemble to discuss his tariff tantrums and the global ramifications of his nonsense.
So much winning! At what point does Wharton revoke his 'business' degree since clearly he has no business sense other than attracting attention to himself as a shameless self-promoter and grifter...
"At what point does Wharton revoke his 'business' degree .... probably never as long as his dead daddy's estate keeps up the donation bribe money paid to graduate him in the first place.
Beyond the tariffs, the next part with sticky inflation and slower growth spells stagflation. If you are foreign investors, do you want to invest in US ?
There are many articles have been written about the Trump’s art of deal making. Here is one for you: No art in the deal: how Donald Trump fails to understand tariffs and trade
CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot met with and schooled the prez Monday on the impacts of his tariff madness. Then on Tuesday he "turned the dial down." Axios article.
Peter Navarro, the guy who wrote a book referring to "Ron Vara" as the expert reference for anti-China musings....but the name turned out to be an anagram of "Navarro"?
Now if the regime "turns down the dial" on China tariffs, I would think that our grand leader looks kind of weak and clueless. Was he calling the Fed chairman a loser this week, or was he just looking in the mirror when he said that word?
Somebody please let me know when we have starting winning. Please.
Dump's previous flurry of references to setting up a 'Dept. of External Revenue' for the presumed tariff haul should've settled that question for good.
Who cares if Trump can do 50, 60 or 75 trade deals in 90 days, the elephant in the room is still China.
There are no negotiations going on. China is giving Trump the silent treatment. Trump blinked saying that China's tariffs will "come down substantially". They seem to be holding the winning hand.
I don't think our economy is strong enough to ditch China and the Chinese know it. Currently, container bookings from China to the West Coast are down 60%. How will the American consumer react to the empty shelves in the big box stores this summer?
China also holds a number of strategic tools for retaliation against the U.S. For example, it dominates the global rare earth supply chain – critical to military and high-tech industries – supplying roughly 72% of U.S. rare earth imports. China is also the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt, following Japan. Etc.,etc.
In this conflict, China seems to be holding the trump card.
I’m pulling for China in the trade war created by the morons at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. China may be the ones with the cards, rather than the Apprentice.
@Sven - Above you asked about Navarro "Does he understand how tariffs works? Thought Navarro received his doctorate in economics from Harvard."
From a Robert Reich substack post - "At the same time, trade adviser Peter Navarro has entered into a public spat with Musk, accusing him of not being a “car manufacturer” but a “car assembler” because Tesla relies on parts from around the world. This prompted Musk to call Navarro a “moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks” in a post on X, later posting that he wanted to “apologize to bricks” and referring to Navarro as “Peter Retarrdo.”
I don't think our economy is strong enough to ditch China and the Chinese know it. Currently, container bookings from China to the West Coast are down 60%. How will the American consumer react to the empty shelves in the big box stores this summer?
China also holds a number of strategic tools for retaliation against the U.S. For example, it dominates the global rare earth supply chain – critical to military and high-tech industries – supplying roughly 72% of U.S. rare earth imports. China is also the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt, following Japan. Etc.,etc.
In this conflict, China seems to be holding the trump card.
Totally concur! China holds the leverage and they know it. Thus, they are not coming to the negotiating table. They want to negotiate with a team of adults, and treated with respect. This mobster boss tactics is not acceptable in a global environment.
@Mark, there are many personal conflict behind the scene - quite a train wreck. Navarro is out of touch on the details of car manufacturing. The high end of Tesla is vertical integrated, meaning they make their own parts. The low end models rely on parts from elsewhere. Navarro is not informed on the change of landscape on each country. The equation he used to calculate the % tariffs is really bad, even TV anchors point out the silly mistakes.
Musk and Bessent also had their disagreement publicly over who should run IRS. Bessent won this round. Where is the adult in the WH?
BTW, thanks for Paul Krugman's article - very informative.
Peter Navarro is 75 years old. Maybe his day in the light of genius is fading and and his day in the cognitive scaffolding of his brain is emerging in an inflexible, narrow, misguided caricature of his former, more broader, genius.
"China hasn't engaged in trade talks with the Trump administration, Chinese officials said, denying reports the world's two largest economies have started negotiations."
"'China and the United States have not held consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue, let alone reached an agreement,'" foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Thursday. He said reports of U.S.-China talks were 'fake news.'"
"China's commerce ministry also said it hasn't held U.S. trade talks. 'Any claims about the progress of China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,'He Yadong, a spokesman, said."
"China is open to dialogue based on mutual respect, he added. 'If the U.S. really wants to solve the problem, it should take seriously the rational voices from the international community and domestic sectors, and fully eliminate all unilateral tariff measures against China.'"
"The comments came after a Wall Street Journal report Wednesday said the Trump administration was considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to de-escalate tensions."
"China is open to dialogue based on mutual respect, he added. 'If the U.S. really wants to solve the problem, it should take seriously the rational voices from the international community and domestic sectors, and fully eliminate all unilateral tariff measures against China.'"
"The comments came after a Wall Street Journal report Wednesday said the Trump administration was considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to de-escalate tensions."
@Observant1- from where I'm sitting that process can't come soon enough. I won't be holding my breath however. Even if he signals a willingness to begin his next tweet will blow it all up. Imagine if the genius wasn't so stable.
WH need to assemble of a competent negotiating team to work with China on a mutual respectable ground. Cutting out all public outburst is the first step. Who is the Chief of Staff who suppose control all these matters?
That is a "bull trap", and they usually do not end well. Investors are hoping things will return to normal, but that is unrealistic as long as the trade war continues with everyone, except Russia.
Few quotes from Chauncey Gardiner (Peter Sellers in the movie, Being There) apply here:
“In the garden, growth has its seasons.”
“It is possible for one side of the garden to be flooded, and the other side to be dry.”
“First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.”
Comments
It was a mistake but we stand by it and will keep the Harvard money.
It was a mistake but we stand by it and can't bring him back and will pay El Salvadore to keep him.
Oh, now that I put it that, it suddenly makes sense. We need the funds from Harvard to pay the dictator in El Salvadore.
"Three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump effectively declared a trade war with the entire world, new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial fallout. A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to lower its outlook for economic growth in new projections released on Tuesday.
The following day, purchasing manager indexes from Japan to Europe to the U.S. will offer the first coordinated glimpse of manufacturing and services activity since Trump’s global tariffs — now partly on hold — were unleashed on April 2. Business surveys from major economies are also on the calendar.
The combined picture is set to offer finance ministers and central bankers assembled in Washington a chance to make initial damage assessments on Trump’s attempt to rewire the global trade system.
Further north..... Retail data for February and a flash estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers pared back their spending for a third straight month amid the trade uncertainty."
Step 1. We want everyone to buy more of our products.
Step 2. Piss off as much as possible the people who buy our products.
Think about it, they have an example of those steps right in front of them.
Musk tried those 2 steps, did anyone in the admin ask how it's working out for him?
smh...
The only problem is that no country will trust us for the next 4 years and our name is now "Mudd" on the international stage.
So much...winning.
as predicted, trump now claiming to be 'china friendly' means he is full turtle mode.
only a question of how much china gains simply by demanding greater concessions based on his inability to honor a deal. but the fact china has that trait in common means there is some foundation both grok.
But the damage has already been done, trust has been lost, and IMO it's quite possible in the comign years that the global economic system will be restructured *around* the US, not necessarily *through* the US.
I should add that it's IMF/World Bank meeting week down here so of course he’s getting very ‘yippy’ about things when the *real* power players of the world assemble to discuss his tariff tantrums and the global ramifications of his nonsense.
White House insists it can still seal 75 trade deals in 90 days – but says it’s currently only in talks with 34 countries
And if you believe the 34 number, I got some choice land...
Also, let us not forget that executing a deal with a respective country does not mean they executed a good deal with them.
The count is one thing. The content, and market moving potential, are quite another.
https://cnn.com/2025/04/22/business/trump-china-trade-war-reduction-hnk-intl/index.html
Depending who is the point person to negotiate with China, the outcome may vary considerably. Certain individuals such as Vance and Navarro should not be part of this team.
donationbribe money paid to graduate him in the first place.There are many articles have been written about the Trump’s art of deal making. Here is one for you:
No art in the deal: how Donald Trump fails to understand tariffs and trade
https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/business/no-art-in-the-deal-how-donald-trump-fails-to-understand-tariffs-and-trade/
Now if the regime "turns down the dial" on China tariffs, I would think that our grand leader looks kind of weak and clueless. Was he calling the Fed chairman a loser this week, or was he just looking in the mirror when he said that word?
Somebody please let me know when we have starting winning. Please.
Dump's previous flurry of references to setting up a 'Dept. of External Revenue' for the presumed tariff haul should've settled that question for good.
Cronyism, Capitulation and Utter Chaos
There are no negotiations going on. China is giving Trump the silent treatment. Trump blinked saying that China's tariffs will "come down substantially". They seem to be holding the winning hand.
I don't think our economy is strong enough to ditch China and the Chinese know it. Currently, container bookings from China to the West Coast are down 60%. How will the American consumer react to the empty shelves in the big box stores this summer?
China also holds a number of strategic tools for retaliation against the U.S. For example, it dominates the global rare earth supply chain – critical to military and high-tech industries – supplying roughly 72% of U.S. rare earth imports. China is also the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt, following Japan. Etc.,etc.
In this conflict, China seems to be holding the trump card.
From a Robert Reich substack post - "At the same time, trade adviser Peter Navarro has entered into a public spat with Musk, accusing him of not being a “car manufacturer” but a “car assembler” because Tesla relies on parts from around the world. This prompted Musk to call Navarro a “moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks” in a post on X, later posting that he wanted to “apologize to bricks” and referring to Navarro as “Peter Retarrdo.”
Here is additional data:
https://piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart
@Mark, there are many personal conflict behind the scene - quite a train wreck. Navarro is out of touch on the details of car manufacturing. The high end of Tesla is vertical integrated, meaning they make their own parts. The low end models rely on parts from elsewhere. Navarro is not informed on the change of landscape on each country. The equation he used to calculate the % tariffs is really bad, even TV anchors point out the silly mistakes.
Musk and Bessent also had their disagreement publicly over who should run IRS. Bessent won this round. Where is the adult in the WH?
BTW, thanks for Paul Krugman's article - very informative.
"China hasn't engaged in trade talks with the Trump administration, Chinese officials said, denying reports the world's two largest economies have started negotiations."
"'China and the United States have not held consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue, let alone reached an agreement,'" foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Thursday. He said reports of U.S.-China talks were 'fake news.'"
"China's commerce ministry also said it hasn't held U.S. trade talks. 'Any claims about the progress of China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,'He Yadong, a spokesman, said."
"China is open to dialogue based on mutual respect, he added. 'If the U.S. really wants to solve the problem, it should take seriously the rational voices from the international community and domestic sectors, and fully eliminate all unilateral tariff measures against China.'"
"The comments came after a Wall Street Journal report Wednesday said the Trump administration was considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to de-escalate tensions."
"The comments came after a Wall Street Journal report Wednesday said the Trump administration was considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to de-escalate tensions."
@Observant1- from where I'm sitting that process can't come soon enough. I won't be holding my breath however. Even if he signals a willingness to begin his next tweet will blow it all up. Imagine if the genius wasn't so stable.
https://cnn.com/2025/04/08/china/china-slams-vance-peasants-remarks-intl-hnk/index.html
WH need to assemble of a competent negotiating team to work with China on a mutual respectable ground. Cutting out all public outburst is the first step. Who is the Chief of Staff who suppose control all these matters?
Few quotes from Chauncey Gardiner (Peter Sellers in the movie, Being There) apply here:
“In the garden, growth has its seasons.”
“It is possible for one side of the garden to be flooded, and the other side to be dry.”
“First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.”
https://everydaypower.com/chauncey-gardiner-quotes/