Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
It looks like Trump did China and BYD, a company producing electric cars, a solid. Tesla used to sell most of their cars in the USA, (232,400 from Jan-May in 2024) and China (219,056, same timeframe). Now that nobody will be able to buy Teslas in China, BYD is taking off like a rocket. Their stock is soaring. Elon Musk should personally thank his leader for the thoughtful gift. Combine that will sinking sales, Tesla is in the doghouse. Biden already had a 100% tariff on these cars, so nobody is buying them in the US. They are selling them in Europe.
Good jobs don’t have to be in manufacturing, and manufacturing jobs aren’t always good
“McDonald’s workers in Denmark are paid more than Honda workers in Alabama.” That claim has been showing up in my inbox, so I checked it out. And it’s true. McDonald’s workers in Denmark are paid more than $20 an hour, in addition to receiving substantial benefits. Indeed.com says that “production associates” at Honda’s Alabama plants are paid an average of $14 an hour.
"There’s a lot of romanticism about what manufacturing jobs in America used to be like. It’s true that some industrial workers were well paid. But that was mainly because they had strong unions. Nonunionized workers in, say, South Carolina’s textile industry had low pay and terrible working conditions. Many came down with brown lung disease caused by breathing in lint. Why should we want to bring those jobs back?"
Everything is connected, and everything is political. Trump backed off the tariffs ("temporarily") in part because of effective counter-moves by foreign holders of Treasuries. A warning shot across the bow. The entire world's economy is well-oiled by US Treasuries. Create a small mis-match between supply and demand, and you get the interest rate rise we saw last week. Canada was selling, and other countries. Needless to say, the US would be most directly affected, first and foremost. And did Carney likewise make any reductions in the counter-tariffs he's imposed on US goods entering Canada? No. If Scott Bessent (Sec. Treas.) is not oblivious, he must have lost an initial argument and could do nothing else but to spout the "party-line" for the current regime. And Trump must always be in the spotlight, so changes would be announced always by HIMSELF. Which is what happened, with this "temporary" reprieve.
Thank you Crash! The two brothers think politics can’t be connected to investment analysis but how could anyone make an investment in a new factory or invest more in stocks or bonds when the regime has no clue what the business environment might be tomorrow?
Agree,@larryB. Don’t want to make big changes on stocks and bonds until the picture is more clear. Same goes to company’s long term investment and the cost of borrowing, i.e. interest rates.
FT: “Given our state of ignorance and all we don’t know, [investing now] is like betting on the outcome of the Super Bowl when you don’t know which teams are playing or who any of their players are,” Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital
Thank you Crash! The two brothers think politics can’t be connected to investment analysis but how could anyone make an investment in a new factory or invest more in stocks or bonds when the regime has no clue what the business environment might be tomorrow?
During Trump first time in office there were hundreds of posts from the same people and the American lib sources, including hundreds of "distinguished" economists, including Nobel prizes that soon our country goes to hell. Until COVID 19 it was far from that. I have a couple of friends that were so scared they left the country. It's all political BS.
"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the central bank could have less flexibility to quickly cushion the economy from the fallout of President Trump’s trade war, sending stocks down on Wednesday." "Powell also hinted that the central bank could give priority to its inflation goal over its labor-market mandate if the two were in conflict. The Fed would attempt to balance the two goals, 'keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans,' he said."
"The Fed’s focus, he said, will be to ensure that any one-time increases in prices from tariffs don’t fuel more persistent price increases."
The Ask the Compound crew received many questions from anxious readers expressing concerns about stocks and the present investing environment. The crew provides some context for the current situation and offers potentially helpful suggestions. There is a link to the corresponding video at the end of the article. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/04/investing-in-an-uncertain-world/
The Ask the Compound crew received many questions from anxious readers expressing concerns about stocks and the present investing environment. The crew provides some context for the current situation and offers potentially helpful suggestions.
The nice thing is there’s a point of view to match every type of investor or political leaning.
Excerpted from Barron’s (online edition) today:
"Since I started at Loeb, Rhoades as a sell-side analyst in 1967, we've had 11 or 12 recessions," says Mario J. Gabelli, chairman and CEO of Gabelli Funds. "Since I started my own firm (in 1976], we've had seven or eight." - His point? This, too-the political, economic, and market turmoil created by the chaotic rollout land partial rollback] of President Trump's tariff regime —eventually will pass.
My take - The major indexes are off for the year. But that follows a couple stellar years. PRWCX, a long-time board favorite, is down a couple percentage points. (I’d imagine Giroux picked up some bargains a week or so ago.) JHQAX hasn’t fared nearly as well. But gold is way up. Utilities / Infrastructure are having a good year. Some real-asset funds (typically a blend of real estate, commodities, energy) are in the green. Foreign stocks & bonds have done better than domestic. My relatively new CEF collection is at least at break-even, if not up. I’ve added 3 stocks to it in recent weeks. Two “bumped” (sprinted higher) while 1 slumped (lost value).
Point is there’s always something worth investing in. Just takes work, patience and some imagination to know what. No disputing the ongoing chaos. I first began investing under President (“I’m not a crook”) Nixon. Dutifully socked away money every payday. Could I have timed it better and bought / sold according to the continuously varying political chaos level back then? Perhaps.
"The nice thing is there’s a point of view to match every type of investor or political leaning." This is very true!
"My take - The major indexes are off for the year. But that follows a couple stellar years." The S&P 500 had two consecutive years with 25% or greater returns in 2023 and 2024. This has only occurred a few times during the index's history. Many domestic large-cap stocks were richly valued at the beginning of the year. We know that stock market corrections can occur at any time. But the sheer level of uncertainty surrounding tariffs has created significant investor angst.
"Point is there’s always something worth investing in." Both of my foreign equity funds and all my bond funds have positive returns YTD. Portfolio diversification has been beneficial thus far in 2025. I don't try to time markets nor do I make major portfolio changes based on politics.
There really is no plan, no genius, and no serious strategy behind 90 percent of what Trump does. The last 10 percent is mostly stuff people around Trump are doing that he doesn't understand.
No guarantees in investing, ever. And Mr. Market hates uncertainty. There are countless possible flavors of THAT. But the current scene is beyond the beyond. This is like no one would ever have dared to imagine. That must be admitted. I pulled some profits very early in January, which is my habit each year. Glad I did not wait. Since then, I'm down, though not alarmingly. It's about -5%. My largest holding by far is PRWCX, which has clocked a YTD loss of -3.26% by itself. My single stocks (just two) are up in terms of my Total Return, but ET is still down YTD by -10.18%. No more Junk in the portfolio. WCPNX is up marginally, though I am down marginally... Cash is up to 24% of total. Presently, I'm wanting LOTS of ballast. Less than half in equities.
James Stack in his latest update to subscribers today:
”Our portfolio remains positive for the year, while the S&P 500 is down -10.2% and the Nasdaq Composite has tumbled -15.7% year-to-date.” - *InvesTech Research
I read Stack but don’t use his recommended allocations. My own portfolio is also slightly positive for the year with around 40% equities & 10% real-assets.
Comments
Democrats Shouldn’t Support Tariffs
Nor should anyone else really. If nothing else at least scroll down to the SM post from Joey Politano.
Exactamente !!!
Thanks for sharing!
Good jobs don’t have to be in manufacturing, and manufacturing jobs aren’t always good
“McDonald’s workers in Denmark are paid more than Honda workers in Alabama.” That claim has been showing up in my inbox, so I checked it out. And it’s true. McDonald’s workers in Denmark are paid more than $20 an hour, in addition to receiving substantial benefits. Indeed.com says that “production associates” at Honda’s Alabama plants are paid an average of $14 an hour.
"There’s a lot of romanticism about what manufacturing jobs in America used to be like. It’s true that some industrial workers were well paid. But that was mainly because they had strong unions. Nonunionized workers in, say, South Carolina’s textile industry had low pay and terrible working conditions. Many came down with brown lung disease caused by breathing in lint. Why should we want to bring those jobs back?"
FT: “Given our state of ignorance and all we don’t know, [investing now] is like betting on the outcome of the Super Bowl when you don’t know which teams are playing or who any of their players are,” Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital
Until COVID 19 it was far from that. I have a couple of friends that were so scared they left the country.
It's all political BS.
"Does he mean my level or my friends?"
You can always trust BS1000. Pearls of wisdom from MAGA-land.
to quickly cushion the economy from the fallout of President Trump’s trade war,
sending stocks down on Wednesday."
"Powell also hinted that the central bank could give priority to its inflation goal
over its labor-market mandate if the two were in conflict.
The Fed would attempt to balance the two goals, 'keeping in mind that, without price stability,
we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans,' he said."
"The Fed’s focus, he said, will be to ensure that any one-time increases in prices
from tariffs don’t fuel more persistent price increases."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/powell-warns-of-challenging-scenario-for-fed-as-trade-war-rages/ar-AA1D3auD
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/chicago-fed-president-on-trumps-trade-war-and-threats-to-fire-powell
about stocks and the present investing environment. The crew provides some context for the current situation
and offers potentially helpful suggestions. There is a link to the corresponding video at the end of the article.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/04/investing-in-an-uncertain-world/
Excerpted from Barron’s (online edition) today:
"Since I started at Loeb, Rhoades as a sell-side analyst in 1967, we've had 11 or 12 recessions," says Mario J. Gabelli, chairman and CEO of Gabelli Funds. "Since I started my own firm (in 1976], we've had seven or eight." - His point? This, too-the political, economic, and market turmoil created by the chaotic rollout land partial rollback] of President Trump's tariff regime —eventually will pass.
My take - The major indexes are off for the year. But that follows a couple stellar years. PRWCX, a long-time board favorite, is down a couple percentage points. (I’d imagine Giroux picked up some bargains a week or so ago.) JHQAX hasn’t fared nearly as well. But gold is way up. Utilities / Infrastructure are having a good year. Some real-asset funds (typically a blend of real estate, commodities, energy) are in the green. Foreign stocks & bonds have done better than domestic. My relatively new CEF collection is at least at break-even, if not up. I’ve added 3 stocks to it in recent weeks. Two “bumped” (sprinted higher) while 1 slumped (lost value).
Point is there’s always something worth investing in. Just takes work, patience and some imagination to know what. No disputing the ongoing chaos. I first began investing under President (“I’m not a crook”) Nixon. Dutifully socked away money every payday. Could I have timed it better and bought / sold according to the continuously varying political chaos level back then? Perhaps.
This is very true!
"My take - The major indexes are off for the year. But that follows a couple stellar years."
The S&P 500 had two consecutive years with 25% or greater returns in 2023 and 2024.
This has only occurred a few times during the index's history.
Many domestic large-cap stocks were richly valued at the beginning of the year.
We know that stock market corrections can occur at any time.
But the sheer level of uncertainty surrounding tariffs has created significant investor angst.
"Point is there’s always something worth investing in."
Both of my foreign equity funds and all my bond funds have positive returns YTD.
Portfolio diversification has been beneficial thus far in 2025.
I don't try to time markets nor do I make major portfolio changes based on politics.
”Our portfolio remains positive for the year, while the S&P 500 is down -10.2% and the Nasdaq Composite has tumbled -15.7% year-to-date.” - *InvesTech Research
I read Stack but don’t use his recommended allocations. My own portfolio is also slightly positive for the year with around 40% equities & 10% real-assets.