Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
A short while ago, Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for 75 countries. Across-the-board 10% tariffs will remain in effect for these countries. However, Chinese tariffs were increased: "Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately."
Markets seem to be very pleased with this latest development! The S&P 500 is currently up 8.00% while the NASDAQ is up 10.16%.
BBG: Goldman Sachs economists rescinded their forecast for a US recession after the 90-day pause on most of his previously-announced tariffs. Again, you should always do the opposite of what they recommend!
“Earlier today, before President Trump’s announcement, we had shifted to a recession baseline in response to the additional country-specific tariffs that went into effect this morning,” the Goldman Sachs team, led by Jan Hatzius, said Wednesday in a note. “We are now reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast.”
It's not over yet... allies hate us and will not buy American or travel to America , lots of people lost their jobs or will lose their jobs, lots of research grants and funding cuts still to hit, IRS cuts will limit tax revenue collections. China.. a LOT of stuff comes from China whether we like it or not. Big dead cat bounce.
No tariff on Russia. That point has been made. I do believe Ireland is missing from the list, too. Curious. At any rate, the method for computing each nation's tariff charged by the USA is... um.... f***ed.
No tariff on Russia. That point has been made. I do believe Ireland is missing from the list, too. Curious. At any rate, the method for computing each nation's tariff charged by the USA is... um.... f***ed.
No tariff on Russia. That point has been made. I do believe Ireland is missing from the list, too. Curious. At any rate, the method for computing each nation's tariff charged by the USA is... um.... f***ed.
Maybe the creative Trump algorithm showed the US owed them a higher tariff. I guess that would mean, for the computation, that the trade deficit number used was negative. Ireland, hard to understand. Russia, no doubt the trade in prisoners usually favors Russia. Are those trades counted?
Further reputational damage: the Danes. Canadians, as we all already know, are pissed off, too. More than likely, that is the case in a great many places. Canadians are not buying American, refusing to travel and spend money here. I wonder if Doug Ford instituted his tariffs out of Ontario on electricity generated there and sold to NY, MI and MN? https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/danish-shoppers-boycott-us-products-as-greenland-trade-tensions-escalate.html
Look for companies with not much business exposure overseas, he says. But here's my confirmation bias at work... What do you think? ... So, BLX does zero business in the US. It's all Latam and Caribbean. The bank was created by governments in the region in the '70s as a semi-official tool to be employed by the Treasuries of those countries. BLX also cooperates in commercial deals, too. One recent event I saw involved collaboration with Canada's Scotiabank to do a deal down south. Those other countries are not tariff-ing each other. And I recall seeing a reference in the past day or two about Panama's gummint working with the US to diminish China's influence around the Canal. (BLX HQ is in Panama City.) https://bladex.com/en
Ok. I understand that all of the previous comments that are related to the errors of Trump. Which are many. I agree that Trump has remarkable skills in bankrupting companies. My issue, however, it is my own money. What do I do as my own bonds and bond funds drop a lot in value value. . Any ideas?
Frankly, I've never liked bond funds because in this type of situation you have absolutely no control over the potential for rapid swings in value. My perspective on individual bonds is entirely different: I buy a specific bond for (hopefully) safety and the interest income, with the intent to keep that bond until maturity. Along the way it may appreciate or depreciate in market value, and that makes absolutely no difference to me.
It's my belief that to really "play" bonds you need to be a very smart, experienced, and dedicated player- someone like Junkster, for instance. Probably almost a full-time occupation.
When much younger, if I wanted to take a chance on the intrinsic value of a financial product (hoping for a significant increase in value, of course), I went with stocks or stock funds and took my chances in the market along with everyone else.
”Please limit comments to how tariffs may impact the economy or investing. This thread is not intended for political diatribes - please use Off Topic for that.”
Thanks. I needed that!
The President’s name is attached to these and he’s exercising questionable executive authority in announcing / imposing them. However, the tariffs / tariff proposals are the product of his broader administration, surely taking into account the views of those inside. “Tariffs” might work as a caption.
My gut reaction having watched the circus for about 10 days is that a lot of this was a ”trial balloon”. Announce them. Watch. Wait. And and see how markets and other nations react. Obviously, it didn’t go swimmingly well. The goal would have been to find an alternative government funding method to the income tax with its progressive structure - thereby despised by many of the richest. A tariff tax hits everyone “equally” as do sales taxes.
Bottom line: They nearly tanked the markets and economy and quickly backed off from the most extreme proposals. What next? Tariffs won’t be as draconian as first proposed. How then to pay for the tax cuts? The federal budget deficit will likely grow, increasing the debt load - a more desirable option (easier to kick down the road) than tanking the economy and causing a catastrophic global recession / depression. There will be tax cuts come hell or high water. If my thesis is correct, this will lead to much higher inflation in coming years. And there may still be a recession. Can’t rule that out.
Rather than listen to me, I’m linking a very good Meb Faber interview with Paul Donovan of UBS Global Wealth. Neither Faber nor Donovan are fans of tariffs. Donovan understands how they affect consumers (and how they do not) a lot better than most of us. (Disclaimer: I no longer hold any of Faber’s funds.)
How do I know that DOGE work? The louder the scream, the more it's correct. Prez after Prez have been saying we are going to cut but didn't. Most of these Gov jobs are held by Dems and why they scream. If you were laid off, start looking for a job in the private sector. I was laid off 3 times after great reviews because my company didn't meet the goal, or was acquired, or they wanted to get rid of older guys. Two of them were immediately; they told me to take my hands off the keyboard and leave the building. One of them was exactly when my kids were in college. Each time it was 15-20% of the workforce. Welcome to the real world of corporate America.
I got screwed, so everyone else deserves it, too? About as much empathy there are the Orange Lump.
I got a better idea. Don't fuck people. Instead, tax the rich. When's the last time they paid their FAIR share? Um... NEVER. Scale-back gov't jobs by attrition. Everyone gets older and wants to retire. Cut back spending gradually.
The Repugnants are hell-bent on giving themselves that permanent tax cut. In order to do it, they want the rest of us to struggle. Life does not need to be such an ordeal. Where is it written that it must be so? I'll tell you: nowhere. But pass the Orange Kool-Aid, anyway. Who cares about others? I got myself to worry about. ... A selfish, closed-in way to live.
This thread is for discussing tariffs not DOGE. Please stay on topic. If you would like to discuss DOGE, I would suggest creating a new Off-Topic thread for this purpose.
I didn't get screwed; it was how corporate America does business. You can whine or start looking for a job or do both. Gov/State employees are the ones that don't care; after all, they think they deserve lifetime employment. As I said before, I worked many years at Gov/State places and saw the abuse, waste and laziness. I'm discussing principles, not emotions, like Dems love to do.
We know that you like to discuss you, but this is not your thread. You are welcome to post your thoughts here on trump's tariffs and please stay on topic.
And Weekend Update was spot on with its opening line: "This week, President Trump tried to rescue the economy from the disastrous policies of whoever was president last week..."
We know that you like to discuss you, but this is not your thread. You are welcome to post your thoughts here on trump's tariffs and please stay on topic.
Thanks for your compliance.
You are right; I posted on the wrong thread. How about all of you be compliant and post your politics in the OFF TOPIC forum?
Or maybe when someone starts a thread and asks not to post about politics, some of you do. Next time, please ask that poster to be compliant.
"In volatile moments like this one, investors look for signs of borrowers under duress, forced selling and illiquidity. Those gauges offer clues on where the markets are headed, and how the selloff is beginning to ripple through the economy."
"All 11 S&P 500 sectors are down since the announcement, with energy the hardest hit. That is because oil prices have tumbled to their lowest levels since 2021 on fears that a global recession will curb demand."
"The materials and consumer-discretionary sectors are both down sharply because of their reliance on imports, while real estate and financials were hit hard by worries about slowing growth."
"A bond selloff that began Monday turned into the biggest weekly climb in the 10-year yield in almost 25 years, alarming traders."
"Traders are bracing for more big moves ahead. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expectations for the size of stock swings over the next 30 days, just touched the highest level since March 2020."
Comments
https://bsky.app/profile/juleshyman.bsky.social/post/3lmfirbwmsc2w
Julie Hyman @juleshyman.bsky.social
5m
TRUMP: RAISING CHINA TARIFF TO 125%, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
Edit/Add. Confirmation from LinkedIn, including 90-day pause for most countries.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/william-yii_breaking-news-trump-ordered-an-immediate-activity-7315786533557428225-Aev3?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU
Another milestone to add to the chronology of Donald JOHN Trump's many accomplishments as 'president.'
Across-the-board 10% tariffs will remain in effect for these countries.
However, Chinese tariffs were increased: "Based on the lack of respect that China has shown
to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America
to 125%, effective immediately."
Markets seem to be very pleased with this latest development!
The S&P 500 is currently up 8.00% while the NASDAQ is up 10.16%.
www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/business/reciprocal-tariff-pause-trump/index.html
BBG: Goldman Sachs economists rescinded their forecast for a US recession after the 90-day pause on most of his previously-announced tariffs. Again, you should always do the opposite of what they recommend!
“Earlier today, before President Trump’s announcement, we had shifted to a recession baseline in response to the additional country-specific tariffs that went into effect this morning,” the Goldman Sachs team, led by Jan Hatzius, said Wednesday in a note. “We are now reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast.”
amazing. goldman and others usually wait until after 1 side of this chart gets updated.
give that hedgie a bonus !
https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/tariff-swings-20250306/?initialWidth=953&childId=responsive-embed-tariff-swings-20250306&parentTitle=Timeline of Trump's tariff threats, deadlines and pauses : NPR&parentUrl=https://www.npr.org/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5345926/trump-tariffs-timeline
He's also reducing the crazy surcharge on shipping on Chinese-built vessels...
(Free link)
https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/trump-administration-revises-port-fee-plan-to-soften-blow-to-u-s-exports-603aa923?st=VJdTZC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/danish-shoppers-boycott-us-products-as-greenland-trade-tensions-escalate.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/jim-cramer-explains-the-best-way-to-pick-stocks-right-now.html
Look for companies with not much business exposure overseas, he says. But here's my confirmation bias at work... What do you think? ... So, BLX does zero business in the US. It's all Latam and Caribbean. The bank was created by governments in the region in the '70s as a semi-official tool to be employed by the Treasuries of those countries. BLX also cooperates in commercial deals, too. One recent event I saw involved collaboration with Canada's Scotiabank to do a deal down south. Those other countries are not tariff-ing each other. And I recall seeing a reference in the past day or two about Panama's gummint working with the US to diminish China's influence around the Canal. (BLX HQ is in Panama City.)
https://bladex.com/en
It's my belief that to really "play" bonds you need to be a very smart, experienced, and dedicated player- someone like Junkster, for instance. Probably almost a full-time occupation.
When much younger, if I wanted to take a chance on the intrinsic value of a financial product (hoping for a significant increase in value, of course), I went with stocks or stock funds and took my chances in the market along with everyone else.
The President’s name is attached to these and he’s exercising questionable executive authority in announcing / imposing them. However, the tariffs / tariff proposals are the product of his broader administration, surely taking into account the views of those inside. “Tariffs” might work as a caption.
My gut reaction having watched the circus for about 10 days is that a lot of this was a ”trial balloon”. Announce them. Watch. Wait. And and see how markets and other nations react. Obviously, it didn’t go swimmingly well. The goal would have been to find an alternative government funding method to the income tax with its progressive structure - thereby despised by many of the richest. A tariff tax hits everyone “equally” as do sales taxes.
Bottom line: They nearly tanked the markets and economy and quickly backed off from the most extreme proposals. What next? Tariffs won’t be as draconian as first proposed. How then to pay for the tax cuts? The federal budget deficit will likely grow, increasing the debt load - a more desirable option (easier to kick down the road) than tanking the economy and causing a catastrophic global recession / depression. There will be tax cuts come hell or high water. If my thesis is correct, this will lead to much higher inflation in coming years. And there may still be a recession. Can’t rule that out.
Rather than listen to me, I’m linking a very good Meb Faber interview with Paul Donovan of UBS Global Wealth. Neither Faber nor Donovan are fans of tariffs. Donovan understands how they affect consumers (and how they do not) a lot better than most of us. (Disclaimer: I no longer hold any of Faber’s funds.)
The louder the scream, the more it's correct.
Prez after Prez have been saying we are going to cut but didn't.
Most of these Gov jobs are held by Dems and why they scream.
If you were laid off, start looking for a job in the private sector.
I was laid off 3 times after great reviews because my company didn't meet the goal, or was acquired, or they wanted to get rid of older guys.
Two of them were immediately; they told me to take my hands off the keyboard and leave the building. One of them was exactly when my kids were in college. Each time it was 15-20% of the workforce. Welcome to the real world of corporate America.
Please listen to this eye-opening interview and what the DOGE team has been doing (https://www.foxnews.com/video/6370654580112)
About as much empathy there are the Orange Lump.
I got a better idea. Don't fuck people. Instead, tax the rich. When's the last time they paid their FAIR share? Um... NEVER. Scale-back gov't jobs by attrition. Everyone gets older and wants to retire. Cut back spending gradually.
The Repugnants are hell-bent on giving themselves that permanent tax cut. In order to do it, they want the rest of us to struggle. Life does not need to be such an ordeal. Where is it written that it must be so? I'll tell you: nowhere. But pass the Orange Kool-Aid, anyway. Who cares about others? I got myself to worry about. ... A selfish, closed-in way to live.
Ya, THIS is the kind of silly, on-and-off, unreliable opossum shit that is roiling the world right now. It's quite impossible to make a plan at all.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/trump-commerce-chief-says-not-like-a-permanent-sort-of-exemption-for-phones-computers.html
This thread is for discussing tariffs not DOGE.
Please stay on topic.
If you would like to discuss DOGE, I would suggest creating a new Off-Topic thread for this purpose.
Gov/State employees are the ones that don't care; after all, they think they deserve lifetime employment. As I said before, I worked many years at Gov/State places and saw the abuse, waste and laziness.
I'm discussing principles, not emotions, like Dems love to do.
We know that you like to discuss you, but this is not your thread. You are welcome to post your thoughts here on trump's tariffs and please stay on topic.
Thanks for your compliance.
Check to Check Business News - SNL
And Weekend Update was spot on with its opening line: "This week, President Trump tried to rescue the economy from the disastrous policies of whoever was president last week..."
Hope Bloomberg’s announcers know a little more about the markets. Some days I wonder ...
And good to hear macaroni & cheese is up!
How about all of you be compliant and post your politics in the OFF TOPIC forum?
Or maybe when someone starts a thread and asks not to post about politics, some of you do.
Next time, please ask that poster to be compliant.
Sounds a lot like some suggestions that I've seen right here on MFO. Makes one wonder...
forced selling and illiquidity. Those gauges offer clues on where the markets are headed,
and how the selloff is beginning to ripple through the economy."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/five-things-to-watch-for-signs-of-market-trouble/ar-AA1CR0bi
"The materials and consumer-discretionary sectors are both down sharply because of their reliance on imports, while real estate and financials were hit hard by worries about slowing growth."
"A bond selloff that began Monday turned into the biggest weekly climb in the 10-year yield in almost 25 years, alarming traders."
"Traders are bracing for more big moves ahead. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expectations for the size of stock swings over the next 30 days, just touched the highest level since March 2020."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-companies-and-markets-hit-hardest-by-trump-s-tariffs/ar-AA1CPk0a