Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Not YB but... I think there is much more to come as I said before due to immigrant deportation job losses, fed job losses, all the research and grant funding cuts will lead to research, college staff job losses. All the support for those jobs (mom and pop shops where they get used to their coffee/lunch will need to cut staff). Hardly any of that has hit the economy yet.... all that is even before the tariffs hit. "Bailouts" will soon be in our vocabulary. For what? To show everybody who's boss? We're the richest country on the planet by far and yet we need more? Countries relied on us, these policies will just lead to them reducing that reliance. EU is starting to do that now with defense initiatives. People said the EU couldn't break their reliance on Russian energy and yet here we are. We're next. All IMHO.
50-dMA and 200-dMA are like large ships that turnaround slowly. So, even if the market action is sideways for the next few weeks, these death-crosses would happen and then cause more selling. R2000/IWM may be leading the way.
The momentum has turned negative and it may take some time to play out.
I have sufficient effective-equity exposure, so I am not buying anything now, but only keeping a buy list.
Good seasonality ends on April 30. The bad seasonality period is May 1 - October 30. If what we have seen so far was during good seasonality, I wonder what bad seasonality will bring?
If you were sure that Tariffs have a high correlation to the stock market, why didn't you sell weeks ago? Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.
seems a lot of people have now miraculously timed the trump bump...that was just recently to be a continuous 4 yr golden age of economics, markets, and consumer prices.
I did sell all equities after three years, precisely. Week ago, Thursday, 27 March. Rolled into DODIX, PIMIX, HOSIX. Done pretty well. But if recession bell continues to ring, will exit to TBills.
If you were sure that Tariffs have a high correlation to the stock market, why didn't you sell weeks ago? Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.
What a mealy-mouthed bit of flim-flammery-type verbiage that last line is. Here's the real skinny. On a different forum, on April 3, FD posted the following: "Sold already weeks ago. See (fd1000.freeforums.net/post/463/thread)." Unfortunately for him, a few weeks earlier, he had written:
Mar 15, 2025 Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2025 at 1:24am Per my link fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/48/2024-5-bond-oefs?page=5 I sold it all last Monday. See why above On Thursday I bought it all back because it was reversed. This is based on my style, goals, and using only bond funds
Yes, he sold, but then he bought everything right back. Going forward, if not backwards as well, probably best to not believe a word he says. The guy really is teched.
A rare look at my account because of what was written about me. I don't deny or confirm anything more. Too much hassle and time-consuming.
2 attachments (using a snipping tool) from my biggest account directly from Schwab. The other accounts are similar. You can clearly see what I have done; it's the blue line. MM is over 99%.
Since I trade only/mostly bond funds for years, I can hold longer and get out in time. My 3 best ideas funds in 2025 (HOSIX,NRDCX,CBYYX) were doing OK but nothing much. I never invested directly in treasury funds; I play it thru HY Munis. Both categories volatility have been too high and why I missed it. That is not a concern because I have enough. My main goals are very low SD, positive yearly performance, and very small losses.
So, what do I see? First, the big picture. Is it unique? Yes. Global tariffs are unique. Trump was serious all along. Is risk elevated? Yes, for a while already. The VIX absolute number is important, but the speed is too. Most risky categories are down = another verification. Bonds: high-rated bonds went up; this is good; it worked this time. Even HY munis did OK. They went up Thur and Fri. The MOVE (bond volatility) also moved very quickly to signal a sell.Another stress sign is RPHIX, it was down on Friday -0.21%.
Second, T/A was verified. We had a small bump in stocks, but it was a short-term one. I mostly use uptrends to verify buys or a switch. After a big meltdown, I use T/A to enter back. IMO, ceilings and floors/support don't make sense because both keep breaking; which is the real true one? Other T/A indicators are useless in predicting the future.
Markets didn't make sense to me for several weeks. When it happens, I sell because very low SD and capital conservation are my primary goals. My biggest "mistake" was that I thought that rates would not go down that much; after all, inflation isn't low enough, and new jobs are still doing OK. The Fed chair, Powell, reiterated it too with no rate cuts yet.
There is no way to know how much more. Selling early or based on an absolute % are my preferred methods because you are late after it starts going down. There is no way to know if it will go 8-10% or 20+%.
@linter, thanks for your research and post, providing conclusive evidence of what most of us already knew, Teched1000 is a fraud.
His reply, with two links to nowhere (sic) and his rambling psycho-babble post about general investment BS and references back to 2020 and 2022 (Say what?) are testament to it. You don't have to have 35+ years of audit experience to know that 500+ word responses about everything but the simple question that was posed/issue that was raised indicate, well, in technical accounting terms, bullshit.
First, the 500+ words were my opinion about the markets. If you don't like it move on. Second, you just crossed the line by saying "fraud, sic, psycho-babble, general investment BS" and should be banned from this site. Third,I urged people to look at the links that were provided and see the truth. But wait, stillers, the seeker of truth posted under 4 different names on different sites. Karen/ Stillers / Arriba / Albie. Any respectable person uses the same one. The last name was Karen. He claimed that he was married to a financial advisor and then continued to post dozens of opinions that supposedly came from his husband while they were his own. When I revealed it and posted about it, he disappeared.
Regarding all the fuss about FD, I don't find anything unusual about his market exit. He has often moved out of the market quickly during market turmoil. Back when both FD and I invested similarly in bond oefs, he would often let me know he was selling before I did, but we have been going down very different investing tracks for the last several years. He hasn't communicated to me in a long time about his investing decisions, but his statements on this thread seem very consistent with how he has handled past market turmoil periods.
It's not his purported move out of the market that is at issue here. The problem is that he maintains he was out at a time when, according to his own words, he was all in. Going to cash, sure, be my guest. But please don't lie about it (or at least be cunning enough, as per the efforts of the modern world, to not let your own posts do you in): "I sold it all last Monday. See why above On Thursday I bought it all back because it was reversed."
A certain unfortunate pathology is at hard at work here, grinding away furiously in the background, jury rigging and justifying and maybe doctoring this or that, which is what you get all the time on the Internet. It's to be expected. But none of us should like it or fail to take note when its machinations can be plainly seen, even though taking note often only encourages more of the same, such is the nature of this particular disease.
I think minor inconsistencies in FD1000's posts were probably just innocent errors. After all, why would a rational person seek to impress a bunch of strangers on the internet? Attempts to do so would be utterly absurd!
I think minor inconsistencies in FD1000's posts were probably just innocent errors. After all, why would a rational person seek to impress a bunch of strangers on the internet? Attempts to do so would be utterly absurd!
Why would you think this time is different than others times where I posted that I sold before major meltdowns. I explained many times too that it's part of my system. I sell first, ask questions later. I'm wrong plenty, and when I am, I'm out for just several days until risk reversed. When I'm right, I stay longer from weeks(2018,2020) to months as I did in 2022.
You guys are a riot...but entertaining...WAAAAYYYY before Trumps announcement,,, just wait... In a few days he'll tell you that's exactly what he did. He's such a prophet.
Shortly after Fri's close CNBC's Mike Santoli did a great S&P chart piece on what he called "Dark Crosses" (Death Crosses to many) including a look back at two prior, similar crosses. He showed the time it took to get back to Golden Crosses, and the depths to which the S&P dropped in between the two crosses. It does not appear that video is available (yet?) but well worth the time if/when it is located.
Death-cross (or golden-cross) is a notable event. What people do with them may vary.
If I am about to buy something, and death-cross is forming, I will delay buying a few days to see how it plays out. It's a negative formation that would prompt others to sell, so I won't stand in the way.
Likewise, if I am about to sell something and golden-cross is forming, I will delay selling a bit.
For these purposes, death/golden-cross work fine. I am not impressed by examples offered.
"If I am about to buy something, and death-cross is forming, I will delay buying a few days to see how it plays out. It's a negative formation that would prompt others to sell, so I won't stand in the way." FD: The common use is to buy after the golden cross, not the death cross.
"Likewise, if I am about to sell something and golden-cross is forming, I will delay selling a bit." FD: Why would I sell, when there is a chance for an on-going rebound?
The devil is in the details. I'm not impressed by any T/A that doesn't work at a very high % My comments have nothing to do with YBB. It's all about the death/golden crosses that have been posted/published many times and used to work during 2000-10, but stopped, since then.
Comments
Would be be so kind as to give us your thoughts on the likelihood that we continue the current downward spiral and execute one or more of the crosses?
Any thoughts of yours in that regard would be greatly appreciated. TIA.
FWIW, I am in the McFadden and Whitehead Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now camp.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/small-cap-benchmark-russell-2000-becomes-first-major-us-stock-measure-to-enter-bear-market.html
The momentum has turned negative and it may take some time to play out.
I have sufficient effective-equity exposure, so I am not buying anything now, but only keeping a buy list.
Good seasonality ends on April 30. The bad seasonality period is May 1 - October 30. If what we have seen so far was during good seasonality, I wonder what bad seasonality will bring?
Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.
seems a lot of people have now miraculously timed the trump bump...that was just recently to be a continuous 4 yr golden age of economics, markets, and consumer prices.
Mar 15, 2025
Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2025 at 1:24am
Per my link
fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/48/2024-5-bond-oefs?page=5
I sold it all last Monday. See why above
On Thursday I bought it all back because it was reversed.
This is based on my style, goals, and using only bond funds
Yes, he sold, but then he bought everything right back. Going forward, if not backwards as well, probably best to not believe a word he says. The guy really is teched.
I don't deny or confirm anything more. Too much hassle and time-consuming.
2 attachments (using a snipping tool) from my biggest account directly from Schwab. The other accounts are similar. You can clearly see what I have done; it's the blue line. MM is over 99%.
Since I trade only/mostly bond funds for years, I can hold longer and get out in time.
My 3 best ideas funds in 2025 (HOSIX,NRDCX,CBYYX) were doing OK but nothing much.
I never invested directly in treasury funds; I play it thru HY Munis. Both categories volatility have been too high and why I missed it. That is not a concern because I have enough. My main goals are very low SD, positive yearly performance, and very small losses.
So, what do I see?
First, the big picture. Is it unique? Yes. Global tariffs are unique. Trump was serious all along. Is risk elevated? Yes, for a while already.
The VIX absolute number is important, but the speed is too. Most risky categories are down = another verification.
Bonds: high-rated bonds went up; this is good; it worked this time. Even HY munis did OK. They went up Thur and Fri. The MOVE (bond volatility) also moved very quickly to signal a sell.Another stress sign is RPHIX, it was down on Friday -0.21%.
Second, T/A was verified. We had a small bump in stocks, but it was a short-term one. I mostly use uptrends to verify buys or a switch. After a big meltdown, I use T/A to enter back. IMO, ceilings and floors/support don't make sense because both keep breaking; which is the real true one? Other T/A indicators are useless in predicting the future.
Markets didn't make sense to me for several weeks. When it happens, I sell because very low SD and capital conservation are my primary goals. My biggest "mistake" was that I thought that rates would not go down that much; after all, inflation isn't low enough, and new jobs are still doing OK. The Fed chair, Powell, reiterated it too with no rate cuts yet.
There is no way to know how much more. Selling early or based on an absolute % are my preferred methods because you are late after it starts going down. There is no way to know if it will go 8-10% or 20+%.
Research shows that missing the worst days is better than missing the good days, and most of these good days come after a big dive. See https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/14/missing-worse-best-days
BTW, I always sell a huge % early, but I buy back very quickly when my big picture risk + other indicators signal that.
See 2/29/2020
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2
See March 2022
https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1262/make-sense
Second, you just crossed the line by saying "fraud, sic, psycho-babble, general investment BS" and should be banned from this site.
Third,I urged people to look at the links that were provided and see the truth.
But wait, stillers, the seeker of truth posted under 4 different names on different sites.
Karen/ Stillers / Arriba / Albie. Any respectable person uses the same one.
The last name was Karen. He claimed that he was married to a financial advisor and then continued to post dozens of opinions that supposedly came from his husband while they were his own.
When I revealed it and posted about it, he disappeared.
Sorry man, but I am not trained in psychology so I'm gonna beg off here.
A certain unfortunate pathology is at hard at work here, grinding away furiously in the background, jury rigging and justifying and maybe doctoring this or that, which is what you get all the time on the Internet. It's to be expected. But none of us should like it or fail to take note when its machinations can be plainly seen, even though taking note often only encourages more of the same, such is the nature of this particular disease.
After all, why would a rational person seek to impress a bunch of strangers on the internet?
Attempts to do so would be utterly absurd!
I explained many times too that it's part of my system. I sell first, ask questions later. I'm wrong plenty, and when I am, I'm out for just several days until risk reversed. When I'm right, I stay longer from weeks(2018,2020) to months as I did in 2022.
Me, Me, Me...
It gets real old, and smells a lot like fish.
just guessing a certain someone went back all-in this morning.
Nasdaq Comp - happened on 4/8/25
Nasdaq 100 - almost there
SP500 - almost there
If I am about to buy something, and death-cross is forming, I will delay buying a few days to see how it plays out. It's a negative formation that would prompt others to sell, so I won't stand in the way.
Likewise, if I am about to sell something and golden-cross is forming, I will delay selling a bit.
For these purposes, death/golden-cross work fine. I am not impressed by examples offered.
FD: The common use is to buy after the golden cross, not the death cross.
"Likewise, if I am about to sell something and golden-cross is forming, I will delay selling a bit."
FD: Why would I sell, when there is a chance for an on-going rebound?
The devil is in the details. I'm not impressed by any T/A that doesn't work at a very high %
My comments have nothing to do with YBB. It's all about the death/golden crosses that have been posted/published many times and used to work during 2000-10, but stopped, since then.