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Not YB but... I think there is much more to come as I said before due to immigrant deportation job losses, fed job losses, all the research and grant funding cuts will lead to research, college staff job losses. All the support for those jobs (mom and pop shops where they get used to their coffee/lunch will need to cut staff). Hardly any of that has hit the economy yet.... all that is even before the tariffs hit. "Bailouts" will soon be in our vocabulary. For what? To show everybody who's boss? We're the richest country on the planet by far and yet we need more? Countries relied on us, these policies will just lead to them reducing that reliance. EU is starting to do that now with defense initiatives. People said the EU couldn't break their reliance on Russian energy and yet here we are. We're next. All IMHO.
50-dMA and 200-dMA are like large ships that turnaround slowly. So, even if the market action is sideways for the next few weeks, these death-crosses would happen and then cause more selling. R2000/IWM may be leading the way.
The momentum has turned negative and it may take some time to play out.
I have sufficient effective-equity exposure, so I am not buying anything now, but only keeping a buy list.
Good seasonality ends on April 30. The bad seasonality period is May 1 - October 30. If what we have seen so far was during good seasonality, I wonder what bad seasonality will bring?
If you were sure that Tariffs have a high correlation to the stock market, why didn't you sell weeks ago? Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.
If you were sure that Tariffs have a high correlation to the stock market, why didn't you sell weeks ago? Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.
What a surprise, yet another after the fact post of your performance! When will you EVER understand that NOBODY believes you?
After your dumber than f*ck statement recently that tariffs have no direct correlation to the markets or the economy, it's startling that 1. you would post here ever again and 2. you would foolishly re-visit a topic that you clearly do not understand.
But that's what MAGAts do I guess.
And...Just recently you posted that you are 99% invested. (Actually, you post that ALL the time!)
So now we know, finally.
Your routine statement that you are always 99% invested MEANS you have your port in something other than cold hard cash, in this case, 99% money market. What a joke!
You certainly have earned your new label here, BS1000! Keep up the good work!
BTW, if your question was to me, I was SURE of the effect and SOLD 1/2 our stock allocation on Monday, and detailed all that in what's called REAL TIME on another thread. Sadly I was holding out hope that your cult leader would do something other than pull tariff %'s out of a bowl or I would have SOLD it all!
I trust you don't know as FOX likely sidestepped the FACT that both columns of tariff data on your cult leader's plaque are SIGNIFICANTLY WRONG! So, no shame to any reasonably intelligent investor who thought/hoped the Buffoon and Plaque Show wouldn't be the disaster it was.
Little man syndrome on full display. Again and again.
Trust you'll attempt to change the subject away from the topic because that's what MAGAts do.
Enter the FACTs. Exit the MAGAts. It gets old bub.
seems a lot of people have now miraculously timed the trump bump...that was just recently to be a continuous 4 yr golden age of economics, markets, and consumer prices.
I did sell all equities after three years, precisely. Week ago, Thursday, 27 March. Rolled into DODIX, PIMIX, HOSIX. Done pretty well. But if recession bell continues to ring, will exit to TBills.
If you were sure that Tariffs have a high correlation to the stock market, why didn't you sell weeks ago? Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.
What a mealy-mouthed bit of flim-flammery-type verbiage that last line is. Here's the real skinny. On a different forum, on April 3, FD posted the following: "Sold already weeks ago. See (fd1000.freeforums.net/post/463/thread)." Unfortunately for him, a few weeks later, he wrote:
Mar 15, 2025 Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2025 at 1:24am Per my link fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/48/2024-5-bond-oefs?page=5 I sold it all last Monday. See why above On Thursday I bought it all back because it was reversed. This is based on my style, goals, and using only bond funds
Yes, he sold, but then he bought everything right back. Going forward, if not backwards as well, probably best to not believe a word he says. The guy really is teched.
A rare look at my account because of what was written about me. I don't deny or confirm anything more. Too much hassle and time-consuming.
2 attachments (using a snipping tool) from my biggest account directly from Schwab. The other accounts are similar. You can clearly see what I have done; it's the blue line. MM is over 99%.
Since I trade only/mostly bond funds for years, I can hold longer and get out in time. My 3 best ideas funds in 2025 (HOSIX,NRDCX,CBYYX) were doing OK but nothing much. I never invested directly in treasury funds; I play it thru HY Munis. Both categories volatility have been too high and why I missed it. That is not a concern because I have enough. My main goals are very low SD, positive yearly performance, and very small losses.
So, what do I see? First, the big picture. Is it unique? Yes. Global tariffs are unique. Trump was serious all along. Is risk elevated? Yes, for a while already. The VIX absolute number is important, but the speed is too. Most risky categories are down = another verification. Bonds: high-rated bonds went up; this is good; it worked this time. Even HY munis did OK. They went up Thur and Fri. The MOVE (bond volatility) also moved very quickly to signal a sell.Another stress sign is RPHIX, it was down on Friday -0.21%.
Second, T/A was verified. We had a small bump in stocks, but it was a short-term one. I mostly use uptrends to verify buys or a switch. After a big meltdown, I use T/A to enter back. IMO, ceilings and floors/support don't make sense because both keep breaking; which is the real true one? Other T/A indicators are useless in predicting the future.
Markets didn't make sense to me for several weeks. When it happens, I sell because very low SD and capital conservation are my primary goals. My biggest "mistake" was that I thought that rates would not go down that much; after all, inflation isn't low enough, and new jobs are still doing OK. The Fed chair, Powell, reiterated it too with no rate cuts yet.
There is no way to know how much more. Selling early or based on an absolute % are my preferred methods because you are late after it starts going down. There is no way to know if it will go 8-10% or 20+%.
@linter, thanks for your research and post, providing conclusive evidence of what most of us already knew, Teched1000 is a fraud.
His reply, with two links to nowhere (sic) and his rambling psycho-babble post about general investment BS and references back to 2020 and 2022 (Say what?) are testament to it. You don't have to have 35+ years of audit experience to know that 500+ word responses about everything but the simple question that was posed/issue that was raised indicate, well, in technical accounting terms, bullshit.
@linter, thanks for your research and post, providing conclusive evidence of what most of us already knew, Teched1000 is a fraud.
His reply, with two links to nowhere (sic) and his rambling psycho-babble post about general investment BS and references back to 2020 and 2022 (Say what?) are testament to it. You don't have to have 35+ years of audit experience to know that 500+ word responses about everything but the simple question that was posed/issue that was raised indicate, well, in technical accounting terms, bullshit.
First, the 500+ words were my opinion about the markets. If you don't like it move on. Second, you just crossed the line by saying "fraud, sic, psycho-babble, general investment BS" and should be banned from this site. Third,I urged people to look at the links that were provided and see the truth. But wait, stillers, the seeker of truth posted under 4 different names on different sites. Karen/ Stillers / Arriba / Albie. Any respectable person uses the same one. The last name was Karen. He claimed that he was married to a financial advisor and then continued to post dozens of opinions that supposedly came from his husband while they were his own. When I revealed it and posted about it, he disappeared.
Comments
Would be be so kind as to give us your thoughts on the likelihood that we continue the current downward spiral and execute one or more of the crosses?
Any thoughts of yours in that regard would be greatly appreciated. TIA.
FWIW, I am in the McFadden and Whitehead Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now camp.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/small-cap-benchmark-russell-2000-becomes-first-major-us-stock-measure-to-enter-bear-market.html
The momentum has turned negative and it may take some time to play out.
I have sufficient effective-equity exposure, so I am not buying anything now, but only keeping a buy list.
Good seasonality ends on April 30. The bad seasonality period is May 1 - October 30. If what we have seen so far was during good seasonality, I wonder what bad seasonality will bring?
Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.
After your dumber than f*ck statement recently that tariffs have no direct correlation to the markets or the economy, it's startling that
1. you would post here ever again and
2. you would foolishly re-visit a topic that you clearly do not understand.
But that's what MAGAts do I guess.
And...Just recently you posted that you are 99% invested. (Actually, you post that ALL the time!)
So now we know, finally.
Your routine statement that you are always 99% invested MEANS you have your port in something other than cold hard cash, in this case, 99% money market. What a joke!
You certainly have earned your new label here, BS1000! Keep up the good work!
BTW, if your question was to me, I was SURE of the effect and SOLD 1/2 our stock allocation on Monday, and detailed all that in what's called REAL TIME on another thread. Sadly I was holding out hope that your cult leader would do something other than pull tariff %'s out of a bowl or I would have SOLD it all!
I trust you don't know as FOX likely sidestepped the FACT that both columns of tariff data on your cult leader's plaque are SIGNIFICANTLY WRONG! So, no shame to any reasonably intelligent investor who thought/hoped the Buffoon and Plaque Show wouldn't be the disaster it was.
Little man syndrome on full display. Again and again.
Trust you'll attempt to change the subject away from the topic because that's what MAGAts do.
Enter the FACTs. Exit the MAGAts. It gets old bub.
seems a lot of people have now miraculously timed the trump bump...that was just recently to be a continuous 4 yr golden age of economics, markets, and consumer prices.
Mar 15, 2025
Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2025 at 1:24am
Per my link
fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/48/2024-5-bond-oefs?page=5
I sold it all last Monday. See why above
On Thursday I bought it all back because it was reversed.
This is based on my style, goals, and using only bond funds
Yes, he sold, but then he bought everything right back. Going forward, if not backwards as well, probably best to not believe a word he says. The guy really is teched.
I don't deny or confirm anything more. Too much hassle and time-consuming.
2 attachments (using a snipping tool) from my biggest account directly from Schwab. The other accounts are similar. You can clearly see what I have done; it's the blue line. MM is over 99%.
Since I trade only/mostly bond funds for years, I can hold longer and get out in time.
My 3 best ideas funds in 2025 (HOSIX,NRDCX,CBYYX) were doing OK but nothing much.
I never invested directly in treasury funds; I play it thru HY Munis. Both categories volatility have been too high and why I missed it. That is not a concern because I have enough. My main goals are very low SD, positive yearly performance, and very small losses.
So, what do I see?
First, the big picture. Is it unique? Yes. Global tariffs are unique. Trump was serious all along. Is risk elevated? Yes, for a while already.
The VIX absolute number is important, but the speed is too. Most risky categories are down = another verification.
Bonds: high-rated bonds went up; this is good; it worked this time. Even HY munis did OK. They went up Thur and Fri. The MOVE (bond volatility) also moved very quickly to signal a sell.Another stress sign is RPHIX, it was down on Friday -0.21%.
Second, T/A was verified. We had a small bump in stocks, but it was a short-term one. I mostly use uptrends to verify buys or a switch. After a big meltdown, I use T/A to enter back. IMO, ceilings and floors/support don't make sense because both keep breaking; which is the real true one? Other T/A indicators are useless in predicting the future.
Markets didn't make sense to me for several weeks. When it happens, I sell because very low SD and capital conservation are my primary goals. My biggest "mistake" was that I thought that rates would not go down that much; after all, inflation isn't low enough, and new jobs are still doing OK. The Fed chair, Powell, reiterated it too with no rate cuts yet.
There is no way to know how much more. Selling early or based on an absolute % are my preferred methods because you are late after it starts going down. There is no way to know if it will go 8-10% or 20+%.
Research shows that missing the worst days is better than missing the good days, and most of these good days come after a big dive. See https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/14/missing-worse-best-days
BTW, I always sell a huge % early, but I buy back very quickly when my big picture risk + other indicators signal that.
See 2/29/2020
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2
See March 2022
https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1262/make-sense
His reply, with two links to nowhere (sic) and his rambling psycho-babble post about general investment BS and references back to 2020 and 2022 (Say what?) are testament to it. You don't have to have 35+ years of audit experience to know that 500+ word responses about everything but the simple question that was posed/issue that was raised indicate, well, in technical accounting terms, bullshit.
Second, you just crossed the line by saying "fraud, sic, psycho-babble, general investment BS" and should be banned from this site.
Third,I urged people to look at the links that were provided and see the truth.
But wait, stillers, the seeker of truth posted under 4 different names on different sites.
Karen/ Stillers / Arriba / Albie. Any respectable person uses the same one.
The last name was Karen. He claimed that he was married to a financial advisor and then continued to post dozens of opinions that supposedly came from his husband while they were his own.
When I revealed it and posted about it, he disappeared.