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Market watchers are mixed on today's action: Oversold, technical bounce (again), end of quarter portfolio dressings...purely a guessing game to me today.
To that end...IMO, it was another in a brief series of dead cat bounces, but warmly received by this investor who decided to significantly reduce his stock allocation today.
@Crash- I'm sorry... I just checked in with "the administration" and find that you are not cleared for that level of information. Something about "persona non grata", I believe.
Market watchers are mixed on today's action: Oversold, technical bounce (again), end of quarter portfolio dressings...purely a guessing game to me today.
To that end...IMO, it was another in a brief series of dead cat bounces, but warmly received by this investor who decided to significantly reduce his stock allocation today.
I was down a tiny fraction, but I've not received monthly dividends, yet, though. New money will be poured into MMkt, until there's a serious change in the investing climate.
@Crash, the secret's out. Per WaPo's Catherine Rampell:
"Trump has already “liberated” his country from the inconvenience of due process or expectations of civil rights. But his freedom crusade escalates this week, when he shall also “liberate” America from affordable cars, a stable economy and its closest allies."
Though I did not lose money today, looking at some of the negative marks in my portfolio and marks in other parts of the market, I would say today was a risk off day, notwithstanding the strong close for the three major indices. I am sure the beginning of the day my portfolio probably was deeply in the red.
It would be good to know the stock sale trades, if any, of Congress persons. I see some buys from them. I am assuming the administration, especially senior personnel, all sold their stock holdings months ago.
@Crash, the secret's out. Per WaPo's Catherine Rampell:
"Trump has already “liberated” his country from the inconvenience of due process or expectations of civil rights. But his freedom crusade escalates this week, when he shall also “liberate” America from affordable cars, a stable economy and its closest allies."
Thanks. Can we get HIM to stop winning so much, by now????? ORK.
@Crash, the secret's out. Per WaPo's Catherine Rampell:
"Trump has already “liberated” his country from the inconvenience of due process or expectations of civil rights. But his freedom crusade escalates this week, when he shall also “liberate” America from affordable cars, a stable economy and its closest allies."
Thanks. Can we get HIM to stop winning so much, by now????? ORK.
"We're gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you'll say, 'Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too much.' - Donald Trump, April 12, 2016
We're gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you'll say, 'Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too much.' - Donald Trump, April 12, 2016
@JD. Me too. I am looking forward to Liberation Day with greater anticipation than I would the Super Bowl. I will be up extra early …. Who will take the over on 20% ?
FWIW, all SELLs (per above posts) have been entered today. Reduced stock exposure by ~50%. Parking proceeds in VMRXX, FZDXX and will likely BUY a coupla new rungs on 5-yr CDs ladder that virtually guarantees a net positive TR in 2025.
Kudos to @larryB for this thread. (Sadly) Timely and actionable.
EDIT: NOT saying this strategy is correct for anyone other than me and the missus. BUT, our #1 goal this year, after two monster stock gain years under a REAL president, was to NOT allow the buffoon's asinine fiscal policies (read, orange brain farts) to cause us to be anything but net positive for the year on 12/31/25. And that goal has virtually been guaranteed with these moves today. Plus, we will sleep MUCH better thru year-end!
What's that old saying? Oh, yeah. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn from time-to-time.
Thanks again to @larryB for this thread - it truly was the final catalyst for us to act so boldly on Monday.
Monday's stock sale proceeds were used as follows Tues/Wed: Most went as intended to VMRXX and FZDXX. Bought another 5-yr CD ladder rung Bought first dedicated bond OEFs (3) since selling all of them circa 2022. Opened a position in long/short fund QLENX.
IF, the blood letting continues today up to the close, MAY redeploy some of the proceeds back into FXAIX or PRWCX, having strategically side-stepped today's sell off. But probably not as we are becoming reasonably convinced that a recession and bear are well in the works.
And, taking suggestions on how to thank @larryB for helping me and the missus save five figures today.
Thankfully my accounts, nearly all equity, have been relatively flat (+/- 1.5%) on the day, which is fine by me when the storm clouds show up. Will it hold in the coming days? *fingers crossed*
(China just imposed 34% retaliatory tariffs on all imported US goods, too.)
"We're gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you'll say, 'Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too much.' - Donald Trump, April 12, 2016
FAFO. Many people (and companies) did the former, and now will suffer the latter.
Probably because Liberation Day is starting to act a lot like Groundhog Day, the movie that is.
Got up this AM and it looks like the same exact BS as yesterday!
Well, fortunately we held off putting anything back into stocks yesterday as the truth about the gross inaccuracies of the tariff data unfolded.
We bought yet another 5-yr CD rung instead, as CP offerings were flying off the shelves yesterday. Got one of the very last CP CDs paying over 4.0%.
Regardless of what the UE report shows and Chair Powell says today, looks like another buffoon-induced, major bloodbath in world equities again today.
As 45, historians widely regarded him as the worst, or 2nd worst president of all-time.
As his 47 term crumbles the US economy, world markets and every worthy foreign relationship we had on the planet in a bit over his first two months, he's got a strong leg up on cementing his legacy as by far the worst president ever.
BTW, futures are of course now much worse than above-noted, getting right into the range of Groundhog, er Liberation Day 1.
As detailed somewhere on this/other threads, we SOLD 1/2 of our stock allocation on Monday in anticipation of the tariff disaster. So we are sitting on a pile of dry powder.
We have re-deployed about half of the proceeds into a CD, three dedicated bond funds and started a position in Alternative fund QLENX.
FWIW, we remain hesitant to ADD any new money, or in this case, re-deploy Monday's stock sale proceeds at this time. If we do ADD back, we will likely DCA those proceeds back in over the rest of 2025, or DUMP back in on a baby/bath water day.
Recession probabilities are climbing as is the insanity level in DC. We are electing to be as reasonably safe as possible given the extraneous circumstances that face us all for the next 3.75 years.
If an investor didn't get outta the way of the freight train that we all should have seen coming down the tracks, I just dunno what the best strategy would be at this point.
But ADDing new/re-deployed $ at this point just doesn't feel right.
Glad I didn't have any resting buy orders out there ... this morning's open blew past them and then some, even on simple stuff that should've held up okay
Tariff Baby says his 2-day-old tariffs are responsible for the uptick in jobs reported today --- which is based on data from LAST month, pre-tariff. (WTF?????)
He also came out with a bunch of tweets about how "THE OPERATION IS A SUCCESS!" and other upbeat messages over the past 24 hours.
I think he's now trying to convince himself "it's working" since the stock markets are is #1 indicator of personal popularity.
Lack of basic comprehension by the POTUS will be a drag as he forces this tariff tragedy down our gullets.
Unfortunately, I had many standing purchase orders fill this morning - clearly an oversight on my part. Better buy opps lie ahead. This market could roll over entirely, along with the world economy at large.
Markets are down considerably for the second consecutive day after Liberation Day. As of the current time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen ~3.5%. Thank you sir, may I have another? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jyz8PTWReWo
And the predictable response from Tariff Toddler...
This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he could now change his image, and quickly. Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!
The current MAGA conspiracy theory is that FOTUS is purposely tanking the stock market so he can get the Fed to lower interest rates ... something that's taken off since he retweeted a video from a cryptobro saying this was the reason.
Comments
To that end...IMO, it was another in a brief series of dead cat bounces, but warmly received by this investor who decided to significantly reduce his stock allocation today.
"Trump has already “liberated” his country from the inconvenience of due process or expectations of civil rights. But his freedom crusade escalates this week, when he shall also “liberate” America from affordable cars, a stable economy and its closest allies."
It would be good to know the stock sale trades, if any, of Congress persons. I see some buys from them. I am assuming the administration, especially senior personnel, all sold their stock holdings months ago.
- Donald Trump, April 12, 2016
So very looking forward to our "liberation" and the smooth, calm seas that surely lie ahead.
Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn from time-to-time.
Thanks again to @larryB for this thread - it truly was the final catalyst for us to act so boldly on Monday.
Monday's stock sale proceeds were used as follows Tues/Wed:
Most went as intended to VMRXX and FZDXX.
Bought another 5-yr CD ladder rung
Bought first dedicated bond OEFs (3) since selling all of them circa 2022.
Opened a position in long/short fund QLENX.
IF, the blood letting continues today up to the close, MAY redeploy some of the proceeds back into FXAIX or PRWCX, having strategically side-stepped today's sell off. But probably not as we are becoming reasonably convinced that a recession and bear are well in the works.
And, taking suggestions on how to thank @larryB for helping me and the missus save five figures today.
If you factored in a recession, should the S&P be at least ~25% lower?
Dow -1000
SPX -142
NDQ -550
(China just imposed 34% retaliatory tariffs on all imported US goods, too.)
"We're gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you'll say, 'Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too much.'
- Donald Trump, April 12, 2016
FAFO. Many people (and companies) did the former, and now will suffer the latter.
Probably because Liberation Day is starting to act a lot like Groundhog Day, the movie that is.
Got up this AM and it looks like the same exact BS as yesterday!
Well, fortunately we held off putting anything back into stocks yesterday as the truth about the gross inaccuracies of the tariff data unfolded.
We bought yet another 5-yr CD rung instead, as CP offerings were flying off the shelves yesterday. Got one of the very last CP CDs paying over 4.0%.
Regardless of what the UE report shows and Chair Powell says today, looks like another buffoon-induced, major bloodbath in world equities again today.
As 45, historians widely regarded him as the worst, or 2nd worst president of all-time.
As his 47 term crumbles the US economy, world markets and every worthy foreign relationship we had on the planet in a bit over his first two months, he's got a strong leg up on cementing his legacy as by far the worst president ever.
BTW, futures are of course now much worse than above-noted, getting right into the range of Groundhog, er Liberation Day 1.
With possible recession and a bear market on the horizon - does buying equities make sense at this time?
We have re-deployed about half of the proceeds into a CD, three dedicated bond funds and started a position in Alternative fund QLENX.
Dip buying is a topic that has come up recently on a few threads.
See my link and comments here:
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/190277#Comment_190277
FWIW, we remain hesitant to ADD any new money, or in this case, re-deploy Monday's stock sale proceeds at this time. If we do ADD back, we will likely DCA those proceeds back in over the rest of 2025, or DUMP back in on a baby/bath water day.
Recession probabilities are climbing as is the insanity level in DC. We are electing to be as reasonably safe as possible given the extraneous circumstances that face us all for the next 3.75 years.
If an investor didn't get outta the way of the freight train that we all should have seen coming down the tracks, I just dunno what the best strategy would be at this point.
But ADDing new/re-deployed $ at this point just doesn't feel right.
Glad I didn't have any resting buy orders out there ... this morning's open blew past them and then some, even on simple stuff that should've held up okay
I expect/hope Powell today will NOT bow to the buffoon and the blood letting will continue through the close.
Where/when it stops, nobody knows!
EDIT:
Some Index data
As of now, these are the levels the 4 major indexes are OFF their respective peaks
DOW -13.1% (Correction)
NASDAQ -21.6% (Bear)
S&P -15.7% (Correction)
RUT -26.5% (Bear)
He also came out with a bunch of tweets about how "THE OPERATION IS A SUCCESS!" and other upbeat messages over the past 24 hours.
I think he's now trying to convince himself "it's working" since the stock markets are is #1 indicator of personal popularity.
Unfortunately, I had many standing purchase orders fill this morning - clearly an oversight on my part. Better buy opps lie ahead. This market could roll over entirely, along with the world economy at large.
But there are 40%-50% of Americans who believe whatever he says, including a few notable posters on this forum.
As of the current time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen ~3.5%.
Thank you sir, may I have another?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jyz8PTWReWo
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/powell-sees-tariffs-raising-inflation-and-says-fed-will-wait-before-further-rate-moves.html
This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he could now change his image, and quickly. Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!
The current MAGA conspiracy theory is that FOTUS is purposely tanking the stock market so he can get the Fed to lower interest rates ... something that's taken off since he retweeted a video from a cryptobro saying this was the reason.