FUNDS. Ivascyn (and Murata) of multisector giant PONAX / PIMIX are loading up on agency MBS and TIPS but reducing exposure to corporates, nonagency MBS (a Pimco specialty) and HY. Credit spreads are tight, stocks are (still) expensive, so it's focusing on credit quality. The yield-curve is almost flat. He doesn’t expect high inflation or recession and has increased Fund duration a bit. Fund is well positioned for 5-yr timeframe and has a generous distribution. It’s unclear how (or, if) the Administration will calibrate policies with economic data and market signals. (etf cousin is
PYLD, riskier CEF cousins are indefinite-term PDI and limited-term PDO, PAXS.) (By
@LewisBraham at MFO).
https://www.barrons.com/articles/top-bond-fund-manager-buying-now-2168a117?refsec=funds&mod=topics_funds
Comments
Paywall for me.
"It’s unclear how (or, if) the Administration will calibrate policies with economic data and market signals."
The administration is shooting for a somewhat inverted yield curve and as I see it, that is how PIMIX is positioned for. What is up with M*, showing PIMIX holdings as of Sept 30?
I had not checked PIMIX stats in years. I did a quick check. seems like their webpage has changed quite a bit since I last checked. I had to download the Portfolio Stats spreadsheet to see some of the detail I thought I used to be able to see on their website.
In any case, as of Feb 28, it is 85% US and UK+ Australia another 15% with Germany and Japan short. Not a whole lot of EM which surprised me. But they can have naked currency exposures which i have not yet checked. I strongly urge forum members downloading the spreadsheet and checking the details.
excerpt:
Once upon a time, PIMIX was my largest position in dfd, Roth and taxable accounts. Had held/added to those positions over several years. Own none now. Was really un-impressed with PIMCO's performance across all of its funds in the 2022 bond bear. For being the 'best' bond mgr in the world, they handled rising rates like a deer in the headlights. JMHO.
For those who like PIMIX's approach, there is a shorter-duration version PFTPX which might be of interest.
On the ETF side, PYLD has some decent non-PIMCO competitors in the multi-sector space: JPIE, CGMS, and BINC. I own none currently, favoring the ultra-short space, But when time to nibble, I will likely give the nod to BINC.
Could have fooled me. Article is dated March 12. Not sure when the interview was done. Bonds looked better when the 10-Year Treasury was at 4.8% a month or so ago than at 4.32% today. But everything is relative. Perhaps he means “on sale” in comparison to overpriced junk bonds …
Later, he elaborates: ”… Ivascyn says that high-quality bonds are priced so cheaply now relative to stocks, which are still near all-time highs, that it's worth taking some risks.”
A logical follow-up might be: “Which stocks?”
Ivascyn is known to avoid the press as much as possible, so LB did a nice job with what he likely had to work with.
The story has very few direct quotations with Louis largely paraphrasing Ivascyn on different issues. But some important quotes are included in the last paragraph and say a bit about Ivancyn’s macro outlook and expectations for Fed policy.
“We think [the Federal Reserve is] going to be very patient, and with all the uncertainty around tax policy and tariff policy, we think they’re on hold,” he says. Even if inflation spikes and rates go up again, the reaction “could be even worse for equity markets.”
It was the first bond fund I owned and the longest from around 2010 to 01/2018 at 50+% for years.
It was the fund I used to change my stock/bond % until I retired
But since 01/2018, the magic has been gone. I sold and never looked back.
The cheap, on sale MBS trade was gone. PIMIX AUM grew like no other.
I found better funds to replace it, such IOFIX until ithe meltdown.
For years now I stated that RCTIX invests mainly in securitized but have a better risk/reward and a much smaller AUM.
https://schrts.co/NIzzEXtp
PIMIX is s still open...why?
I stopped listening to PIMIX managers, no matter what the question is, they still like securitized/MBS for over 15 years.
It doesn't matter to me what a fund made 3-5-15 years ago, I care what it has been doing lately with a look at the future.
Add to PIMIX it's derivatives and a black box tools and I'm skeptical.
Is PIMIX a good fund? Sure, but I continue to stay away.
The biggest stock fund is $1+ trillion.
The biggest bond fund is only low triple-digit billions.
PIMIX is still a baby among giant funds. Its AUM (MFOP data) bottomed at $111.1 billion on 10/31/22 and it's $179.8 billion as of 2/28/25 - that is an impressive +61.8% growth in 2 yrs, 4 mo for a large fund. This growth is despite Pimco having cousin ETF PYLD and several cousin CEFs PDI, PDO, PAXS.
Pimco markets PIMIX it well. It's often a choice in 401k/403b, including in my Fido 403b and TIAA 403b, and do I have it there (no other choices for multisector funds there).
Only MFO members think the world will stop if they do not permit.
YBB, do we have a break down of AUM increase by class?
PIMIX $109.91 billion
PONPX $48.41 billion
PONAX $14.26 billion
Rest in other classes
It's rare that I agree w/FD but several of these points are spot-on.
And it's hard to invest in a fund 'with a look at the future' since often times the only info is there semi-regular holding reports and/or mgmt commentaries, both of which are released on *serious* time-delay, which doesn't help much with looking into the future.
I don't like black boxes, either.
I’ve never owned PIMIX / PONAX. Have looked and looked at it. Decided I’d rather take a little more risk in limited term preferred or arbitrage funds with the conservative portion of the portfolio in hopes of adding an extra percent or two over time without a whole lot more risk. But it’s a close call. PIMIX is certainly the safer bet. I think Ivascyn does a great job with the asset class he’s been handed. Just not enamored by bonds here unless (as I’ve said before) they are part of a broader asset allocation scheme / approach (Giroux’s for example).
Not expert - but it does appear there’s some “black box” elements to the fund. Buffet’s line about the tide going out haunts me …
Do not fall blindly for M* classification of funds. E.g., IOFIX is classified as a multisector fund, which hardly it is.
“Derivatives are subject to a number of risks described elsewhere in this section, such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk and management risk. They also involve the risk of mispricing or improper valuation and the risk that changes in the value of the derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate or index. If the Fund invests in a derivative instrument, it could lose more than the principal amount invested.”
“Certain transactions may give rise to a form of leverage. Such transactions may include, among others, reverse repurchase agreements, loans of portfolio securities, and the use of when-issued, delayed delivery or forward commitment transactions. The use of derivatives may also create leveraging risk. To mitigate leveraging risk, PIMCO will segregate or “earmark” liquid assets or otherwise cover transactions that may give rise to such risk.“
Prospectus
For example, things to discover on the Detailed Stats tab: Pimco Income has lots more agency than non-agency mortgages these days. (I just started looking at the Port Stats again a couple of weeks ago after a long hiatus, given that I'm after a home for some of my former CLO $.)
I was invested in PIMIX during (approximately) 2017-2019. It delivered consistent dividends each month, but continued to lose principle. I eventually got tired of watching this and sold it.
Because of it’s relatively high dividend consistency, I think it would make a very good annuity substitute.
I think that posters should be aware of the use of derivatives and have some general idea about them. But it isn't necessary to become an expert on them. Overthinking may just lead to analysis-paralysis. If one doesn't like Pimco, they can stay away - Pimco isn't hurting for money. Its recent growth in Pimco Income AUM alone is more that the total assets of several competing multisector funds.
I am all in with its OEF (PIMIX), etf (PYLD), CEF (PDI, PDO, PAXS). Pimco is a good but expensive bond house. In other areas, I avoid Pimco.
PImix stopped doing that in 01/2018.
Cloz has been amazing for at least 1.5 years. The magic disappeared too.
Chances I would own PIMIX is low and definitely not at a higher %.
BTW, PIMIX used to have a managed distribution policy (and it might still have). So, it can get a bit inefficient trying to hit the target but my experience was that it shot for total return and as a proof, sometimes it made ROC distributions. I think it is a good product.
My last post in this thread.
Short term, PIMIX seems to have regained momentum..
Curious why you established positions in both funds. Aren't PYLD and PIMIX very similar funds with the same managers?
PONAX / PIMIX does set a monthly distribution level at the beginning of the year and it does so conservatively so that there may be an extra yearend distribution (still from income).
ROCs are more common for CEFs. But PDI hasn't distributed ROC in recent years (despite 19a reports) although PDO and PAXS have made small ROC distributions.