It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
At dozens of National Weather Services offices across the country, staffing levels were low well before President Donald Trump took office. As the new administration announced mass terminations this week, current and former staffers said an exodus of new hires and veterans will hinder the agency’s ability to monitor and predict weather hazards.
The administration let go of meteorologists, hydrologists and technicians that help inform daily weather forecasts in places including Boston and Boise, Idaho. It fired scientists who build, improve and maintain weather models that form the backbone of weather forecasting around the globe. Staff at offices responsible for warning the public about tsunamis, tornadoes and hurricanes lost their jobs, as did an entire team dedicated to communicating NOAA’s work and science to the public.
Combined with Thursday’s firings the government climate and weather enterprise’s workforce contracted by more than 6 percent in two days. NOAA’s workforce is still large — starting this year at about 13,000 employees, including about 4,300 who work for the Weather Service — and a spokeswoman said Thursday the agency “remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public.”
About half of the Weather Service’s forecast offices were already understaffed, according to a congressional analysis released last year. When Trump took office and instituted a government-wide hiring freeze, it further strained staffs, forcing some to work double shifts to ensure all-day coverage, current and former Weather Service staff told The Washington Post.
Termination notices reviewed by The Post told NOAA and Weather Service staffers they were “not fit for continued employment because your ability, knowledge and/or skills do not fit the Agency’s current needs.” Louis Uccellini, who served as Weather Service director from 2013 to 2022 said that is far from the truth: “These are exactly the people we need,” he said.
Jobs were also eliminated at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and Storm Prediction Center. The offices produce forecasts and analysis that inform work done by meteorologists in local forecast offices around the country — as well as private sector meteorologists and the media. The cuts also impacted NOAA’s tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii, according to a person familiar with those offices. Even before those layoffs, scientists at the centers logged overtime hours to ensure the public is apprised of tsunami threats, the person said.
Technicians who repair radar systems across the country lost their jobs, as did several from a team who handled larger repair projects at the Weather Service’s National Reconditioning Center in Missouri, said Jeran Krska, who was fired Thursday after leaving the private sector to join the center as director in September. “We’re falling even more into, we just can’t support the mission anymore,” Krska said. “Now they just terminated all the probationary people? We’re screwed.”
Krska’s office is responsible for major repairs to systems that gather weather observations to help issue forecasts. Budgets were already tight for many repair parts, and now repair technicians across the country are also among those fired, Krska said. “We were barely Band-Aided together as it was,” he said.
As much as 25 percent of the staff at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center was cut Thursday, Spinrad said — a blow to an office that faces a complex task of building, improving and maintaining the computer models that serve as a foundation for weather prediction.
The center handles more than 20 numerical weather prediction systems — programs that combine mathematical models of earth systems with observations of current conditions to produce weather predictions. Already, low staffing has affected the operations of at least one weather balloon station in Alaska that collects data on current conditions. Without information from sources like these, experts said the accuracy of models key to forecasts across the country and globe could be affected.
The modeling center is central to work championed by Neil Jacobs, Trump’s nominee to lead NOAA. The work is meant to improve U.S. weather models, generally outperformed by rival systems developed in Europe and the United Kingdom. The center is collaborating on efforts to build what is known as the Unified Forecast System, of which Jacobs serves as chief science adviser and that he has spearheaded as a means of improving forecasting accuracy.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla
Comments
1. Leaving NATO and the UN
2. Shutting down foreign aid
3. Dismantling the professional USA bureaucracy
4. Removing safeguards for epidemics and disease
The enemy within, indeed ...
And if you provide a “link” here to an off-topic discussion you are well aware it will still be discussed in the investment section due to the failings of “Vanilla” you explained earlier.
Much as I value your contributions, I do not think railing against Prez Musk is going to do anything to attract readers who are looking for mutual fund / investment information. Or has that type of content ceased to be the primary function of Mutual Fund Observer?
Just like an article in NYT today about the non partisan scientists fired at Department of Agriculture who do research to prevent crop and animal diseases
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/us/politics/federal-workers-scientists-firings-trump.html
And the NIH supposedly will be lead by a man who has no background in medicine or biology except a few medical school course years ago.Never seen a patient as a physician in his life.
don't you think that will set back biotech companies by decades?
With respect to Trump, please note that he is mentioned only once, and that was to point out that NOAA staffing levels were low well before he took office. I deliberately edited any other references to the current president's name.
I haven’t seen any serious post here yet about what we as investors should do to protect our portfolios or grow our assets in light of the NOAA issue. Say what? Should we short agriculture or farmland? Maybe unload our U.S. securities and invest in foreign assets? Likely Musk’s Starlink can provide the same services for a fee or would be able to. Shall we invest in Starlink?
The problem is twofold: Threads like this distract attention away from the board’s purpose of helping investors make investment decisions. And because they go out all over the internet and surface in search queries they attract posters like the Big Bang guy who come here primarily to take sides and participate in the free-for-all.
So I respect you very much. But I don’t understand why posts loaded with political inferences should be on the investment side. Some say OT is a “wasteland”. Yeah, probably correct. Look at the 90% political threads there. Do we want this side of the forum to resemble that?
Is this thread going to change my portfolio next week or month?
No. It belongs in the OT forum.
You know very well where this thread is going.
Not every report about the economy or politics means something to the investment world.
What's so hard to use the OT forum?
All I can suggest for investing in this very uncertain environment is to follow David's sage advice from February 1:
1. Do not count on the stock market – valuations are at epic levels, with speculative funds like ARK Innovation ETF popping up 10% in the month of January, far more than the 2-3% gains of more mainstream market indexes. Such markets tend to be incredibly fragile.
2. Prefer quality over momentum – “momentum” comes down to “what was working will continue working,” which has been an intermittently disastrous assumption. While quality rarely soars, it also is typically underpriced and resilient.
3. Consider a small position in a hedge-like fund – they tend to be expensive and few have justified their existence, but we’ve tracked a handful of well-run funds that have succeeded with hedged equity positions or with a managed futures strategy that uses very short-term signals to short falling classes while investing in rising ones. Standpoint Multi-Asset charges 1.49% with a five-year return of 12%, a beta of 23, and a downside capture of 22. Dynamic Alpha Macro, meanwhile, weighs in with a 1.98% e.r. but booked top percentile returns in its Morningstar peer group during its first year of operation. The argument here is simple: it’s far easier to remain calm and focused when something in your portfolio is holding up as the little voice in your head shouts “run! Run! Runnnnn!”
4. Do not rule out bonds as a competitor to stocks – while I’m skeptical of debt-weighted bond index funds, Lynn makes a strong argument for the asset class just now.
5. Fund your emergency account – really, knowing that you’ve got the next two to three months’ worth of bills covered buys a lot of peace of mind. My portfolio uses RiverPark Short Term High Yield for that role, but Schwab has a bunch of money market funds yielding over 4% just now.
You don't really need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Maybe ask why the US always seems to face adversaries? If we didn't have adversaries, we would manufacture them. We seem to have an imperial tendency to attempt to dictate to other countries how they should conduct their affairs. since the end of the Cold War -- and it did end --- how many countries has China bombed? How many countries has Russia bombed? (Georgia, Ukraine come to mind. Others?) How many countries has the US bombed? I don't know the number, but I suspect the US has bombed/invaded more countries than all of our 'adversaries' (Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela) combined. And America always seems to think its behavior should be held to a different standard than other nations. Strange, that other countries might expect the US to adhere to the same rules which it expects of them...
As for an "enemy within", AIPAC and Israel exert a stranglehold on US policy decisions in the Mideast, and has done so beginning back as far as LBJ. That we hear political concerns expressed about Russian influencing US elections, but neery a peep about blatant, pervasive Israeli interference, suggests to me the whole 'Russian interference' allegations unserious. Deal with the biggest foreign interloper in our elections first...
So of course, FOTUS is trying to kill them both, because winning!
* who also predicts & warns about the path of hurricanes that might, oh, I dunno, hit Palm Beach County or Doral?
Wildfires are possibly the most alarming, and the links to climate change are undeniable. When they occur, the destruction is rapid and devastating. Who would have expected large portions of Los Angeles to go up in flames? Many insurance companies are abandoning coverage in much of California. There will come a time when wildfires destroy large amounts of forests and property in the Eastern United States, and conservatives will act shocked.
Hurricanes, tornadoes and severe storms are also linked to climate change. And again, conservatives claim that there is no link to climate change. Meanwhile, many insurance companies are raising rates or pulling out of places like Florida that are prone to hurricanes. NOAA is the primary federal agency dealing with weather and climate. Cutting funding to it is penny wise and pound foolish.
So, apparently some of you think that billions of dollars of destruction from natural disasters has no effects on the economy. I suggest that you visit western North Carolina, LA or other places destroy by wildfires, floods, hurricanes, etc.
1. A lot of science is funded by govt. Scientists are quite good at math, and understand if they do not provide the desired conclusion -- that being "Omigod, its Global Warming" their future fundings may be cut off. Scientists are human. They have families to raise. They want the gravy train to continue, and know what they need to do, to keep the funding coming. Simple, human motivations.
2. In the past 40 years, a large plurality of new homes/condos have been built very close to the coasts. Commercial developments follow the people. If you put a lot more structures on the coast, you are going to get more hurricane damage. In the arid western US, if the govts refuse to engage in forestry management, the fuel for the fires accumulate until a spark sets the unmanaged flora ablaze. CA is infamous for not engaging in sound forestry management. The Santa Anas blow every year. Bad govt policy is what drove the scale of the disaster.
3. If neighborhoods are allowed to build on a flood plain, they should expect to, well, get flooded. NOLA, famously, is below sea level. And we are shocked that occasionally NOLA gets hit?
The simple expansion of human settlements/cities/exurbsover the past 50 years assures that there will be more incidents of natural disasters. That is simple probability.
Do billions in losses from natural disasters effect the economy? Of course they do. It creates GDP, as incremental spending occurs to rebuild. -- One reason why GDP is a lousy measure of how a country is doing, economically.
Certainly, if NOAA is meritorious, George Soros, Jeremy Grantham and Bill Gates are welcome to fund it with their private donations.
Oh, I see the connection and am inclined to agree with the merits of your argument.
No one is denying the connection. Of course weather / climate affects the economy. So does substance abuse in the workplace, decaying national infrastructure, organized crime and tax evasion, highway safety and posted speed limits. Throw in space launches along with the harmful orbital debris that’s accumulating. And the asteroid projected to pass very close to earth in 2032 could really impact the economy by taking out New York, San Francisco or London. Shall we create an investment thread on asteroids?
My earlier point was that discussing one of these related subjects isn’t enough. If it’s under “investing” it ought to deal with applying that information to how we invest. Which funds or stocks would you buy or sell as a result of this information? How might the loss of NOAA affect interest rates and bond prices? Are there private sources for the information (SpaceX comes to mind) so you can still apply weather patterns to your investment decisions? Does this make you want to invest more or less in the markets? More or less inside / outside the U.S.?
I hope folks will realize that without specific investment discussion “things that affect the economy” is too broad a criteria to warrant posting under Other Investing. There is a rich and vibrant Off Topic section where NOAA would be gladly welcomed along with the inevitable references to a government many here oppose. Politics and governance reign supreme in OT.
1. Scientists around the globe are concerned about climate change. It is not a conspiracy, but based on analyses of facts and measurements. I spent much of my career in air quality. I have personally observed and measured how small concentrations of air pollution can affect the environment and people’s health. Much of the opposition to climate change is funded by fossil fuel companies with vested interests in maintaining the status quo.
2. This is true but context is important. Where I live, conservatives have consistently opposed land use controls to limit development in floodplains, coastal areas. Trump is also cutting funds for the US Forest Service and FEMA. National forests are located all over the US, not just California. I believe we will be experiencing more wildfires in many areas outside the West. Several years ago, we had an exceptionally dry year in North Carolina, and wildfires were occurring across the state.
3. Many areas flooded by hurricanes in North Carolina were well outside floodplains, even 500-year zones. This was true in hurricanes Fran, Floyd, Matthew, Helene and others.
1. I did not use the term 'conspiracy'. Do fossil fuel companies use lobbying to further their interests? Sure. Is the use of money to influence outcomes in the climate issue unique to one side? I doubt it. I suspect money is a corrupting issue on both sides. (and on most issues). I simply do not believe the science outcomes are pure as the driven snow.
2. Human lifetimes are short. I doubt any of us, from our personal experience has a large enough data set to infer larger truths from our anecdotal experiences. In 2021 the entire state of TX suffered a severe month-long freeze. Worse than anything in my lifetime. Do I infer a new Ice Age is at hand? No. It was a one-off.
3 By definition then, perhaps the human-defined "flood plain" was not accurately understood. Human knowledge in all realms of science is incomplete and imperfect. We know more today than we did 200 years ago. Our understanding in 200 years will be more accurate still. We don't 'know it all' now. We should acknowledge the shortcomings of our knowledge. There is no sin to admitting we don't know it all.
And you know this to be true because... ??
I know it is true because they were fired. Again, this is not politics, this is saving our country. There were probably as many Republicans as Democrats fired, so it was not politics.
And how do you know it is not true???
Don't you realize, Old Joe, that all of your name callings and other trash you and your cronies are putting out is not helping your cause. It just makes you look childish and like a poor looser. One of your most often comments is "prove it", but you never offer any proof of your options. Just name calling.
REasonable inference from the poster's experience working in the govt. How do you 'know' they weren't overstaffed?
But MAGA somehow KNOWS that these jobs were UNNECESSARY, and Musk and his axe crew are always VERY CONSIDERATE in understanding how the agency works and what the CONSEQUENCES would be. Smartest guys in the room.
OR....MAGA needs to blindly cut trillions of dollars to justify tax cuts that will benefit mainly the wealthy.
MAGA loyalists - they cant see the forest for the trees. This is why the poor stay poor. Bad decisions and failure to consider the bigger picture.
@hondo- would that be anything like your calling me and "my cronies" communists? How many times have I and my "cronies" kissed Putin's rear end... oh, wait... that's your king Trump...
"Trash" seems to be anything factual that doesn't fit neatly into your warped version of reality.