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Today’s Market Recap

Comments

  • edited March 4
    What was the news around 2:20 PM Central Eastern when the trapdoor opened?
  • Trump was still president?
  • edited March 4
    No apparent news. It appears (per at least one worthy market observer) that we were close enough to a NASDAQ correction to trigger (computerized?) trading. That rally, if that's what it was, quickly evaporated.
  • I was wondering if the "rally" was Trump supporters trying to have a nice market day for his majesty's speechifying tonight. If so, they seem to have been overtaken by reality.
  • At Old_Joe. Trump was still president. Best comment of the last five weeks.
  • edited March 4
    Thanks guys. Good humor.

    Here’s a few snippets characterizing the day’s trading -

    Barron’s: “The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday, but some midday dip buying cut into the worst of the day’s declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 670 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 was down 1.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.4%. The Dow was down more than 800 points at its low, while the Nasdaq was down 2.1%.”

    The WSJ: “Trump's Tariffs Spark Retaliation, Whipsawing Markets

    Reuters News: ”Investors say it's time to take Trump seriously as markets recoil.”

    Bloomberg: ”Day One of Trump's Trade War Delivers Wild Ride for Wall Street”

    Bill Fleckenstein (Fleckenstein Capital .com): “Wild Volatility Continues to Rule”

    What was the news around 2:20 PM Central Eastern when the trapdoor opened?

    I’m not aware of any particular news. Markets seemed to claw back much of the day’s losses around 2:00. As you say, trap door opened. But the real carnage must have been in the last hour ISTM.

    I can’t recall this kind of volatility before. But, no doubt it has occurred. ”Recession Watch” I’d say. You can’t throw up 25% taxes everywhere (tariffs) and not brake the economy. *

    * brake as in “rapidly decelerate”

  • Also "brake" as in "break".
  • edited March 4
    Yes. That too. Shades of Herbert Hoover …
  • The S&P 500 was within 4 points or so of the 200 day simple moving average when it reversed.
  • Foreign assets spiked about the time the U.S. markets began the late day sell off. There were unconfirmed reports the Fed was eyeing more rate cuts than earlier proposed (5 thru year end I think). That would weaken the dollar, but might serve to push up U.S. equities. This is beginning to make some sense.
  • I see Luttnick gaslighting the overnight markets with talk of possible compromise on tariffs. Mr. Market might get grumpy if Luttnick can't deliver.
  • edited March 5
    Five cut is a lot due to current inflation is higher than that of 2% target. If inflation ticks higher from tariffs, one can expected higher and longer rate scenario. So who paints himself into corner ?

    The other scenario is US enters a recession in Q2 this year. The definition of recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDPs. Looks like Q1 is in negative territory. Market will be volatile for sure.
  • CME FedWatch is now showing 3 cuts in 2025. There are based on fed fund futures trading data, not surveys.
    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
  • "The definition of recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDPs."

    I would go to NBER website and read up on the definition.
  • For those interested in saving time about Trump Tariff updates, here is a source -

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/05/trump-tariffs-live-updates-china-says-its-ready-to-fight-any-type-of-war-us-wants-till-the-end.html

    Do not worry about how the weblink reads; it is not a single story link.
  • Old_Joe said:

    I was wondering if the "rally" was Trump supporters trying to have a nice market day for his majesty's speechifying tonight. If so, they seem to have been overtaken by reality.

    Some people really have an obsession about Trump.
    Seek help. And remind me, how did the market finish the day after the speech?
  • Hey eddie,,, some people care about America,,, the rule of law and the constitution. Your market went up today cause the king backed off of the most damaging parts of his deranged economic policies. Today’s market has nothing to do with the rants of madman last night.
  • larryB said:

    Hey eddie,,, some people care about America,,, the rule of law and the constitution. Your market went up today cause the king backed off of the most damaging parts of his deranged economic policies. Today’s market has nothing to do with the rants of madman last night.

    +1.
  • edited March 6
    @Edmond
    ...And remind me, how did the market finish the day after the speech?

    I'll take the bait...

    Here's your requested reminder about yesterday:
    Dow closes nearly 500 points higher, S&P 500 surges over 1% on hopes for Trump tariff concessions
    [NOTE: The convicted felon's speech Tuesday night did nothing to calm the markets, it was his Canada concession (sic) Wednesday and hopes for more (hints at sanity) that caused the temporary rebound.]

    And here's your wake up call for today:
    Dow futures drop more than 400 points as Wall Street volatility continues

    Overall, since The Orange Turd (TOT) was elected, US markets are UP about a point. After today, it'll be more like Pick 'Em. So ZERO US market growth since Election Day.

    BTW, your cult leader aspires to be as great as a (rare) prior tariff lover, McKinley. Given TOT's vast knowledge of American history, I trust he knows how that all worked out for him?

    So what's your f*cking point now again, bub? And more broadly, who really "needs help"?
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