Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Some of what you’re seeing I think is relief that this probably won’t be a long contested election. Helps explain stocks up. Interesting that gold is steady or slightly down tonight. Suspect some of its recent run-up was related to fears about a contested election. That said, I don’t think gold’s run is over - just a pause.
I’ve followed the 3 betting markets Bloomberg had running continuously the past couple days. Trump was ahead 55/45 or better in 2 of the 3 Monday morning. The hold-out market broke this morning and went with Trump. The last readings had Trump up 70/30 before Bloomberg pulled them down this evening.
I was a few minutes late getting to the PC to buy some TBF, inverse 20y Treasury. It was already up 3.3%; looks like that market knows what's coming.
Wonder if the Fed will stand pat this week, knowing inflation's headed up again, if not now (via opportunistic price gouging), then when the new regime takes over.
Edit: this a.m.'s Marketplace included a brief interview in which was discussed the T yield spike as a reaction to the large amount of borrowing needed and resulting debt that will be incurred by the new admin. The people who cited high prices and the federal debt as reasons they were dissatisfied with the existing admin just elected somebody who will make both worse.
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. This whole thing is right out of the comic strips. BTW, I came across a report that Jack Smith, the current special counsel, is already winding down his prosecution operation.
I’ll have to say I found watching the original “Godfather” with Marlon Brando infinitely more entertaining than this version. However, similar ethics in play.
He still owes civil fines.The Fani Willis case is not dead, either... yet. Now I'll go back to feeling my head explode, as I ponder this preposterous, absurd state of affairs.
Hmm. Whoever raised money for the people who rioted, looted and burned businesses in Minneapolis? Whoever decided that thefts under $900 would not be prosecuted?
Moral equivalence? Why not focus on fomenting an insurrection and refusing to transfer power peacefully? The peaceful transfer of power is one of the bedrocks of our democracy. Violating this core principle should automatically disqualify perpetrators from holding office. This is just one example where "Teflon Don" was not held responsible for his illegal actions. It certainly seems like Trump does not have to adhere to US laws unlike the rest of us!
I suspect Trump’s crimes, mistakes and misdeeds *were* acknowledged, considered, and judged by many who voted for him; but, they concluded that when everything was taken into consideration, the alternative was worse. This election was the Democrats’ to lose, and they couldn’t have lost it any better if they tried.
I suspect Trump’s crimes, mistakes and misdeeds *were* acknowledged, considered, and judged by many who voted for him; but, they concluded that when everything was taken into consideration, the alternative was worse. This election was the Democrats’ to lose, and they couldn’t have lost it any better if they tried.
chang, do you watch Trumpf in the WWE from Europe?
The Democrats lost because Trumpf's base is loaded with low information voters. But you knew that.
The democrats lost because: - Biden tried to run as a geriatric vegetable - The DNC shut down any serious primary contenders including RFK - Once Biden was pushed aside, they crowned the incumbent VP who couldn’t separate herself from all the failures of her administration - KH picked Walz - the only decision she made in 100 days, and the worst possible choice combining a SF liberal with an even more liberal Minnesotan - Lied about not covering up Biden’s dementia - No substantial interviews or press conferences - No plans, no answers, just word salads - Freezing up when the teleprompters went out - The entire campaign was focused on abortion and Jan 6 - two valid issues, but not enough to win on - What would you do differently than Joe Biden? “Nothing I can think of.” Wrong answer. - Biden calling half the American population garbage. - KH doubling down on that and calling Trump’s supporters Nazis and fascists. - Obama playing the race card - Everyone playing the gender card and treating women as if abortion was the *only* issue they cared about - Cuban tripling down and insulting women - KH avoiding Rogan and almost all contact with ordinary people, preferring to hang out with Clooney and Springsteen - KH snubbing Catholics at the Al Smith dinner (no teleprompters allowed) - KH closing her campaign with fascist, fascist, fascist. - No one really knows anything about KH other than she slept her way up the ladder, was the first primary candidate in 2020 to drop out, was picked by Biden because he promised to pick a woman of color regardless of qualifications, and she comes from a middle class family. Oh, and she supported defunding the police and bailing out the Minneapolis rioters.
The media has been exposed as a tool of the left. With the benefit of hindsight, we see now that Trump’s allegations of “Fake News” were 100% right on target. The American people finally realized that.
Trump ran a much better campaign, communicating much more effectively and tapping into voter discontent with the Democrats’ extreme-left ideology.
A more centrist, experienced and intelligent candidate, and a less loony VP, could and would likely have won in a landslide.
See what I mean by this election was the Democrats’ to lose? KH was the worst possible candidate. I see a hundred ways this could have been an easy Democratic victory, if Biden had stepped aside 18 months ago.
The two happiest people about the Trump victory are Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, for obvious reasons.
= = = = =
Look, I understand you’re grieving, but don’t let your hatred consume you. Harris, Biden, and Obama all made laudable concession speeches; maybe you should watch those again. If you really deny all the mistakes KH and the Dems made — I listed only a few — then you are, well, you know.
Very serious case of TDS, if you cannot address a single mistake made by your candidate.
Feel free to insult all you like, if that helps you cope. Obviously the American people rejected your candidate in a landslide, as well as in the senate, house, and gubernatorial races. I’m sure it’s painful, but if you want to wallow in hatred and misery, no one can help you.
Be thankful that the stock market likes the result!
Very serious case of TDS, if you cannot address a single mistake made by your candidate.
Feel free to insult all you like, if that helps you cope. Obviously the American people rejected your candidate in a landslide, as well as in the senate, house, and gubernatorial races. I’m sure it’s painful, but if you want to wallow in hatred and misery, no one can help you.
Be thankful that the stock market likes the result!
chang,
You are fortunate to be an expat residing in Europe and not subject to the day to day chaos and dysfunction that the next four years (or maybe longer) is sure to bring. Hopefully you face less antisemitism than in the US, exacerbated by Trumpf's unabated use of xenophobic anti-Semitic tropes. If not, fortunately, you can reside in Israel.
Summary Interest in moving to Canada, New Zealand and Australia surges Immigration New Zealand site had 25,000 new US users on Nov. 7 Many Americans worried that U.S. democracy is under threat
Go for it, guys. Let the TDS flow. If the Democrats can find no fault within their party or candidate, and blame the American people for their loss, they will never win another national election.
And Trump is the candidate of antisemitism? Not the one whose pastor and spiritual advisor, Amos C. Brown, blames America for 9/11 and celebrated the Holocaust? Sure.
I was trying to be slightly reasonable and helpful, but it feels like a psychiatric ward here. Again, fill your boots. If I can help with your grieving process, then I’ve done my good deed for the day.
And as for leaving the country, I don’t think Trump is going to cause you any difficulty getting out. Only for illegals coming in.
Go for it, guys. Let the TDS flow. If the Democrats can find no fault within their party or candidate, and blame the American people for their loss, they will never win another national election.
And Trump is the candidate of antisemitism? Not the one whose pastor and spiritual advisor, Amos C. Brown, blames America for 9/11 and celebrated the Holocaust? Sure.
I was trying to be slightly reasonable and helpful, but it feels like a psychiatric ward here. Again, fill your boots. If I can help with your grieving process, then I’ve done my good deed for the day.
And as for leaving the country, I don’t think Trump is going to cause you any difficulty getting out. Only for illegals coming in.
chang,
Are you really that removed from what's happening in the United States? Let me help you out with a few minutes with Stephen A Smith.
Of course, the Democrat's see the things that went wrong. Do you feel better?
I am sorry that you are unable to see how Trumpf preyed on the low information voters with a misunderstanding of the Trumpier features of the 45th president record, character, and agenda.
And yes, open your ears and listen to Trumpf's unabated use of xenophobic anti-Semitic tropes.
You’re the first to admit that the Dems made mistakes. I’m glad you’re able to see and do that. As for me, well, Trump got 73,461,776 votes and counting. You can call them all stupid, but again, that suggests that there’s nothing wrong with how the democrats have been running things. Keep that up, and you’ll never win another national election.
Truth is, I *am* a bit busy, so I will let you guys get on with your grieving together. Not sure I can offer any more aid and comfort than I already have. Don’t do anything rash with your investments - they’ll be just fine and dandy. I’ll check back in in 2028 and see how you’re feeling, when it’s Vance (or Desantis, or Haley) running against …… er, just who *is* the leader of the Democratic Party now?
You’re the first to admit that the Dems made mistake. I’m glad you’re able to see and do that. As for me, well, Trump got 73,461,776 votes and counting. You can call them all stupid, but again, that suggests that there’s nothing wrong with how the democrats have been running things. Keep that up, and you’ll never win another national election.
Chang,
I did not call them "all stupid". I said "Trumpf preyed on the low information voters".
So please do tell me. Have you heard Trumpf's unabated use of xenophobic anti-Semitic tropes?
I suspect Trump’s crimes, mistakes and misdeeds *were* acknowledged, considered, and judged by many who voted for him; but, they concluded that when everything was taken into consideration, the alternative was worse. This election was the Democrats’ to lose, and they couldn’t have lost it any better if they tried.
For years, many US citizens felt they were left behind and that the "system" doesn't work for them. Institutional trust has eroded significantly. Trump was able to exploit disaffected voters' grievances with his "Make America Great" bullshit. The economy was also a very important factor. Although the US economy has performed well (GDP, job growth, etc.) since the height of the pandemic, voters were upset paying higher prices for many items (largely due to embedded inflation from prior years).
Trump was able to exploit disaffected voters' grievances with his "Make America Great" bullshit.
Observant1, I can't believe you cussed! Kinda made my day there.
Chang seems to be brainwashed. Maybe we can all take a kumbaya trip out to his European chateau and set him straight. Or is he in Mother Russia? Orange is quite cozy with Putin, so that would make more sense.
BB is definitely Boggleheads II -- I've been banned. Heil Hitler um err... Chang, agree with us or you're gone. - Actually lucky me, I've been wanting to cut down screen time.
Comments
I placed this about an hour ago in the ELECTION thread here, in OT.
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
I’ve followed the 3 betting markets Bloomberg had running continuously the past couple days. Trump was ahead 55/45 or better in 2 of the 3 Monday morning. The hold-out market broke this morning and went with Trump. The last readings had Trump up 70/30 before Bloomberg pulled them down this evening.
Thanks Catch for the link.
Wonder if the Fed will stand pat this week, knowing inflation's headed up again, if not now (via opportunistic price gouging), then when the new regime takes over.
Edit: this a.m.'s Marketplace included a brief interview in which was discussed the T yield spike as a reaction to the large amount of borrowing needed and resulting debt that will be incurred by the new admin. The people who cited high prices and the federal debt as reasons they were dissatisfied with the existing admin just elected somebody who will make both worse.
Why not focus on fomenting an insurrection and refusing to transfer power peacefully?
The peaceful transfer of power is one of the bedrocks of our democracy.
Violating this core principle should automatically disqualify perpetrators from holding office.
This is just one example where "Teflon Don" was not held responsible for his illegal actions.
It certainly seems like Trump does not have to adhere to US laws unlike the rest of us!
The Democrats lost because Trumpf's base is loaded with low information voters. But you knew that.
- Biden tried to run as a geriatric vegetable
- The DNC shut down any serious primary contenders including RFK
- Once Biden was pushed aside, they crowned the incumbent VP who couldn’t separate herself from all the failures of her administration
- KH picked Walz - the only decision she made in 100 days, and the worst possible choice combining a SF liberal with an even more liberal Minnesotan
- Lied about not covering up Biden’s dementia
- No substantial interviews or press conferences
- No plans, no answers, just word salads
- Freezing up when the teleprompters went out
- The entire campaign was focused on abortion and Jan 6 - two valid issues, but not enough to win on
- What would you do differently than Joe Biden? “Nothing I can think of.” Wrong answer.
- Biden calling half the American population garbage.
- KH doubling down on that and calling Trump’s supporters Nazis and fascists.
- Obama playing the race card
- Everyone playing the gender card and treating women as if abortion was the *only* issue they cared about
- Cuban tripling down and insulting women
- KH avoiding Rogan and almost all contact with ordinary people, preferring to hang out with Clooney and Springsteen
- KH snubbing Catholics at the Al Smith dinner (no teleprompters allowed)
- KH closing her campaign with fascist, fascist, fascist.
- No one really knows anything about KH other than she slept her way up the ladder, was the first primary candidate in 2020 to drop out, was picked by Biden because he promised to pick a woman of color regardless of qualifications, and she comes from a middle class family. Oh, and she supported defunding the police and bailing out the Minneapolis rioters.
The media has been exposed as a tool of the left. With the benefit of hindsight, we see now that Trump’s allegations of “Fake News” were 100% right on target. The American people finally realized that.
Trump ran a much better campaign, communicating much more effectively and tapping into voter discontent with the Democrats’ extreme-left ideology.
A more centrist, experienced and intelligent candidate, and a less loony VP, could and would likely have won in a landslide.
See what I mean by this election was the Democrats’ to lose? KH was the worst possible candidate. I see a hundred ways this could have been an easy Democratic victory, if Biden had stepped aside 18 months ago.
The two happiest people about the Trump victory are Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, for obvious reasons.
= = = = =
Look, I understand you’re grieving, but don’t let your hatred consume you. Harris, Biden, and Obama all made laudable concession speeches; maybe you should watch those again. If you really deny all the mistakes KH and the Dems made — I listed only a few — then you are, well, you know.
Typical MAGA tool.
Feel free to insult all you like, if that helps you cope. Obviously the American people rejected your candidate in a landslide, as well as in the senate, house, and gubernatorial races. I’m sure it’s painful, but if you want to wallow in hatred and misery, no one can help you.
Be thankful that the stock market likes the result!
Sad, so sad. Feel sorry for you. Such a waste.
You are fortunate to be an expat residing in Europe and not subject to the day to day chaos and dysfunction that the next four years (or maybe longer) is sure to bring. Hopefully you face less antisemitism than in the US, exacerbated by Trumpf's unabated use of xenophobic anti-Semitic tropes. If not, fortunately, you can reside in Israel.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/after-trumps-win-many-despondent-americans-research-moving-abroad-2024-11-08/
Summary
Interest in moving to Canada, New Zealand and Australia surges
Immigration New Zealand site had 25,000 new US users on Nov. 7
Many Americans worried that U.S. democracy is under threat
And Trump is the candidate of antisemitism? Not the one whose pastor and spiritual advisor, Amos C. Brown, blames America for 9/11 and celebrated the Holocaust? Sure.
I was trying to be slightly reasonable and helpful, but it feels like a psychiatric ward here. Again, fill your boots. If I can help with your grieving process, then I’ve done my good deed for the day.
And as for leaving the country, I don’t think Trump is going to cause you any difficulty getting out. Only for illegals coming in.
Are you really that removed from what's happening in the United States? Let me help you out with a few minutes with Stephen A Smith.
Of course, the Democrat's see the things that went wrong. Do you feel better?
I am sorry that you are unable to see how Trumpf preyed on the low information voters with a misunderstanding of the Trumpier features of the 45th president record, character, and agenda.
And yes, open your ears and listen to Trumpf's unabated use of xenophobic anti-Semitic tropes.
Shoot, you don't even live here? Some MAGA supporter you are.
Truth is, I *am* a bit busy, so I will let you guys get on with your grieving together. Not sure I can offer any more aid and comfort than I already have. Don’t do anything rash with your investments - they’ll be just fine and dandy. I’ll check back in in 2028 and see how you’re feeling, when it’s Vance (or Desantis, or Haley) running against …… er, just who *is* the leader of the Democratic Party now?
I did not call them "all stupid". I said "Trumpf preyed on the low information voters".
So please do tell me. Have you heard Trumpf's unabated use of xenophobic anti-Semitic tropes?
Institutional trust has eroded significantly.
Trump was able to exploit disaffected voters' grievances with his "Make America Great" bullshit.
The economy was also a very important factor.
Although the US economy has performed well (GDP, job growth, etc.) since the height of the pandemic,
voters were upset paying higher prices for many items (largely due to embedded inflation from prior years).
Observant1, I can't believe you cussed! Kinda made my day there.
Chang seems to be brainwashed. Maybe we can all take a kumbaya trip out to his European chateau and set him straight. Or is he in Mother Russia? Orange is quite cozy with Putin, so that would make more sense.