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Jamie Dimon (JPM) Looking for Future Rate Storms

yogibearbullyogibearbull
edited April 12 in Other Investing
Jamie Dimon's annual letter, pg 20,

"Therefore, we are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8% or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes — from strong economic growth with moderate inflation (in this case, higher interest rates would result from higher demand for capital) to a recession with inflation; i.e., stagflation. Economically, the worst-case scenario would be stagflation, which would not only come with higher interest rates but also with higher credit losses, lower business volumes and more difficult markets. Under these many different scenarios, our company would continue to perform at least okay. Importantly, being prepared means we can continue to help our clients no matter what the future portends. "
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/ceo-letter-to-shareholders-2023.pdf

Comments

  • hank

    image
  • MikeMMikeM
    More storms like today will certainly give the long-anticipated buying opportunity.
  • hank
    edited April 12
    MikeM said:

    More storms like today will certainly give the long-anticipated buying opportunity.

    Yes. True. But I’m beginning to think Geroux really does walk on water. PRWCX gained .23% today, unless my tracker is flawed.

    Ahh … Just one day. But most everything except bonds took a hit from what I can see. I have a fund that invests in a basket of CEFs. More bloodshed than I care to say. Must have caught a lot of CEFs leaning the wrong way …
  • kings53man
    Time to do some ROTH conversions.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited April 12
    @hank, that is stale quote for PRWCX from yesterday. Many sites are still showing stale info from 4/11/24 (Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, etc). Probably will fix in the next update of the evening.

    But Price website, M*, etc are showing the correct info for 4/12/24 and it is -0.79%.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prwcx/quote
  • hank
    edited April 12
    yogibearbull said:

    @hank, that is stale quote for PRWCX from yesterday. Many sites are still showing stale info from 4/11/24 (Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, etc). Probably will fix in the next update of the evening.

    But Price website, M*, etc are showing the correct info for 4/12/24 and it is -0.79%.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prwcx/quote

    Thanks a lot @yogibearbull. Nice to know DG’s human. TCAF, which I also follow, was off quite a bit when I looked earlier, so couldn’t figure out why PRWCX would be up.

    BTW - From M*’s current assessment of PRWCX: ”A 5-star manager that hasn’t begun to peak ...”
  • Sven
    As of close on 4/12/2024, all TRP fund prices listed at Fidelity were stale with “0%” changes, and that is highly improbable. Seemed that sort of delay in the past as the mutual fund companies are slow to post their NAV soon after market close. During the GFC, NAV of bond funds are often stale.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    There was some sort of breakdown in a major feed for PRWCX.

    Prices were posted correctly YESTERDAY at Rowe Price and M* websites. But they are still stale at many places now on Saturday.

    Yahoo is totally messed up - it shows stale price on the Summary/Quote page, but correct price in Historical Data.
  • CrashCrash
    edited April 13
    +1.
    And it does not help when mutual fund prices are shown to be current-day prices, when in fact the data is a day old. M* or TRP or Yahoo or any of the others are just trying to make themselves look good, and failing, thereby.

    "Data as of (current day.") Because this---today--- is the day you're looking at it. But it's actually yesterday's information. The ploy amounts to a lie. Crap. There's not much in my experience lately that can be trusted to be reliable. Promises, promises! New and Improved! Until you need something...
  • catch22catch22
    @yogibearbull and @Crash et al

    PRWCX example for pricing that generally is accurate within 2 hours after market closing. This linked chart shows the pricing change for Friday, April 12. One may use this chart for any valid ticker symbol. NOTE: Disregard the 3 year time frame, RSI and some other data, as this example is only for viewing % change.
    What is important with this chart at StockCharts: Enter the ticker symbol, leave the 'period' at Daily, and then select/click upon 'Update'. One will then find the % change at the right side at 'Chg'. Using this same ticker or your ticker choice, you may also change the 'Period' to 'week', then select/click upon 'Update'. You will then see the % change for the trading week. So, if you use this chart for a Wednesday close, you will see the % change for the week to date.
    Save this site page, as it is active for you to use at a future date.

    Note: when checking other data this past Friday evening, M* data for SPY closing on Friday was stale well into Saturday. This chart pricing and % change was fully accurate Friday evening, about 2 hours after the market close. I've never had a conflict with correct %/pricing data using this site page. I agree about Yahoo for most data, which I do not use.
    I believe I covered all the bases for this example. Let me know otherwise.
  • CrashCrash
    @catch22. appreciate it.
  • davfordavfor
    Interest rate uncertainty coupled with the Iranian missile strike on Israel have me opening my eyes to possible investment opportunities for the first time this year. I will be paying attention to market action on Monday and may make a trade or two.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    I'd be very surprised if the Iranian missile strike has much influence on anything. Pretty much of a dud.
  • Observant1
    edited April 15
    Old_Joe said:

    I'd be very surprised if the Iranian missile strike has much influence on anything. Pretty much of a dud.

    I agree - unless the skirmish escalates.
    It appears that Iran isn't interested in further attacks unless Israel retaliates.
    My understanding is the Israeli war cabinet is undecided regarding a military response.
    The U.S. and western allies are trying to disuade Israel from taking offensive military action.
    This situation could very easily turn into a powder keg!
    Let's hope that doesn't occur...
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited April 15
    It's about oil that had runup already to WTI $85 and Brent $90. But it didn't move much after that. Similar for gold. Only cryptos showed real-time moves (at one point, Bitcoin -8%, digital-gold +32%) when none of the markets were trading, but those have calmed down too.
    But we haven't seen the end of the story yet.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Very true.
  • gman57
    Diamond must have went to meteorological school or secretly wanted to be a weather man. Back in June he was predicting an economic hurricane and now rate storms! Maybe a stock market blizzard is next?
  • FD1000
    Dimon is just covering his a$$.
    If his prediction would be correct he would say I told you so, if not, he would say it was a warning.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Interesting that Jamie Dimon's concerns have been quoted widely, but his wide rate range of 2-8% is skipped in these quotes. All he may be trying to say that as the largest bank in the US (TBTF, SIFI, etc; also largest globally by market-cap but not by assets), he is prepared for all eventualities.

    BTW, Treasury volatility is indicated by MOVE (it's like VIX for bonds) and it's now 121; recent 52-wk high was 148 in 10/2022; all-time low was 37 in 09/2020.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^MOVE
  • WABACWABAC
    yogibearbull said:

    All he may be trying to say that as the largest bank in the US (TBTF, SIFI, etc; also largest globally by market-cap but not by assets), he is prepared for all eventualities.

    That is a good place to be.

    It's also a welcome relief from rate-cut mongering.
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