Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@WABAC: we both hold XMHQ. I was surprised to find SMCI as its top holding. Surprised because the same stock is the top holding of two of my go-go growth funds. Haircuts ensued last Friday.
I'm doing to stock funds what I recently did to bond fund.
XMHQ still looks good in the IRA. With the taxable, well, I didn't push all my cash in at once.
I'm kind of surprised that people are getting that excited about a company that makes servers. I remember when they were just another company advertising in the free computer magazines that used to exist in the Bay Area. I'll have to check and see if DODGX still owns any HP.
A few stocks I have to go along with WABAC 's list. All YTD. MKS +21,VST+18,URI, PH, and EW all up 13+. Thats TECH, Utilities, Industrials and Health Care. Not all about the MAG 7.
And I’ve now deleted my earlier reference to the “Mag 7” in the interest of harmony. I can now better appreciate how Dudack felt after Rukeyser fired her.
Oh, so THAT'S what happened. I missed her, after she was gone!
Awful today, not disastrous. IS the dreaded Recession going to come, after all? I just wanna punch somebody in the head right now. What's it gonna TAKE? Ork?
Gail Dudack was one of the weekly “elves” who was consistently bearish on the markets week after week while all the other elves (6 or 7) were steadfastly bullish (1999). Rukeyser himself was also bullish. So eventually, in late ‘99 Lou demoted Gail from “elfship” and replaced her with someone who agreed with all the other elves. ISTM she declined to appear on his show after that.
Gail Dudack was one of the weekly “elves” who was consistently bearish on the markets week after week while all the other elves (6 or 7) were steadfastly bullish (1999). Rukeyser himself was also bullish. So eventually, in late ‘99 Lou demoted Gail from “elfship” and replaced her with someone who agreed with all the other elves. ISTM she declined to appear on his show after that.
I loved that show, but don’t remember that particular one incident. There was one rotating female guest he had on who was, well, hot. Don’t remember her name or what she looks like now.
Here’s a 2013 Story. References to “today’s market” are dated and not applicable. But they seem to have the story of Gail Dudack (the “odd duck” among the weekly elves) correct. Being a “elf” was a permanent position, whereas the panelists rotated and weren’t always “elves.”
“An eternal bull on the stock market, the more bullish, and less tolerant of dissenting bears he became, the higher the averages climbed. On the program of Nov. 5, 1999, Mr. Rukeyser announced the firing of the veteran panelist Gail Dudak for her 156 consecutive weeks of bearishly errant forecasting. The stock market peaked four months later.”
Danielle Park out of Toronto is smart and savvy, herself. She's been doing it for decades by now. Saw her interviewed on Canadian TV and followed that very blog for a long time. Same name for the blog as the book she wrote: "Juggling Dynamite."
From what I can tell Park is perma bear, perhaps influenced by the dire predictions of the Canadian Housing Market. I only listen to a few things, as I don’t like to spend time on podcasts or Youtube when I can skim written text quicker.
Did you read her book? Does she have any suggestions other than T bills?
"I loved that show, but don’t remember that particular one incident. There was one rotating female guest he had on who was, well, hot. Don’t remember her name or what she looks like now."
I loved that show too, watched it every week. I'm thinking it was Liz Ann Sonders. IMHO
From what I can tell Park is perma bear, perhaps influenced by the dire predictions of the Canadian Housing Market. I only listen to a few things, as I don’t like to spend time on podcasts or Youtube when I can skim written text quicker.
Did you read her book? Does she have any suggestions other than T bills?
Truthfully, it's been a long time since I did much reading on that blog. I thought she was witty, and insightful. Doesn't follow the crowd. Is that what makes her a perma-bear in your eyes? She's not registered to do business in the States, so her opinions and analyses would be DIRECTLY useful only if you're buying Canadian stocks--- even if bought on US exchanges. I still track a bunch. But given my tax situation, I'm keeping my money Stateside, now. Don't want to see chunks of my dividends automatically withheld by foreign governments!
I can't say I've read her book. She is still correct about something she said many years ago: "Canada primarily sells rocks and trees to the world," still. That's the economy's backbone. Natural Resources. Think about the years-long, ongoing de-facing of the Province of Alberta with the oil sands projects, up north, around Ft. McMurray. And the more standard, legacy oil drilling in Alberta. ... WFG is a solid timber choice. The Big Banks are monopolies, in Canada. Bombardier, I think, is working to improve its situation vis-a-vis investors. But now, it's only available in the USA via an "F" share. You have to deal with the Toronto Exchange, I believe. (No, it's OTC. But now that I'm at Schwab, I must steer clear of OTC stuff. That's my understanding--- if I want to avoid FEES.) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BDRBF?.tsrc=fin-srch
She strikes me as just sensible. That's what appeals to me.
"I loved that show, but don’t remember that particular one incident. There was one rotating female guest he had on who was, well, hot. Don’t remember her name or what she looks like now."
I loved that show too, watched it every week. I'm thinking it was Liz Ann Sonders. IMHO
Liz Ann is certainly not hard to look at, but I'm thinking it was a brunette. Not sure, the show's been off over 20 years I think, so memory is not so good.
All I see is a beautiful uptrend SP500 in the last 4 months + performance of 20+% + low volatility where the index didn't lose more than 2.5% from any last top = excellent risk/reward. See the chart https://schrts.co/hTeZtxIG
On Nov 1st I posted..."You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ."
So, you can work a lot harder and do much less, such as diversification, invest in lagging categories (value, SC, international, gold, utilities) since 2010.
Of course, at one point it will change but I have heard and read about it for at least 5-8 years.
Bonds: for several weeks already I posted that for 2024, you can use RPHIX="sub" cash and make about 6%, the next 2 CBLDX, RSIIX can make 7-9%. I'm a trader but I haven't done anything for weeks = smooth charts = 99+% invested.
The only time I regularly watched Wall Street Week was the six months, or so, I was tending bar next to a fifty dollar a month residence hotel in downtown Waterloo, Iowa. Beers were 35 cents, and shots were 90 cents.
PBS was the only thing I allowed on the tube. This must have been about 1976. I vaguely remember the elves, and a beetle-browed gent from Lazard Freres I thought made some sense at the time.
Don't want to rain on this thread but...this thread was started on 2/20. S&P gapped up on 2/22 on NVDA earnings after hours on 2/21, and just broke through some resistance today. Some ports may not have done well since this thread started, but 30% of our YTD TR occurred since then. Just sayin.' YMMV.
My overall is up around +2.3% YTD, slowly creeping up. Can't complain (but I will in the next paragraph ). Schwab says their 'moderately conservative' benchmark portfolio is up +1.3% YTD. Another bench mark I compare to is the TRP 45% equity retirement fund (TRRAX), up +1.9% YTD.
I'm going to give up totally on the Schwab Intelligent Portfolio, the robo. It has made 0% YTD after many years of lack luster return. At one time I split about 50:50 between the robo and self managed. I reduced the robo to ~15% by the end of 2023. It's high cash allowance, ~12%, makes fractions of a percent while the Schwab MM, which they don't use in the robo, has consistently made ~5%+ the past year. This cash allotment is an anchor. Also, it has consistently been heavy International and emerging markets which also hasn't worked out. I gave it time. I've had it for ~7 years and it hasn't performed any better than a target date fund. Worst in fact.
@MikeM. I'd not have been so patient. I see BHB is DOWN again today. I guess it's in sympathy with NYCB. It stinks to be a regional bank. Still waiting for it to pop when rates come down. When NYCB bought that big chunk from one of last year's failing banks, I could see it was a "David eats Goliath" proposition. Too much to handle.
Nice bond divvies last night. Those are keepers--- until the postponed recession. (Junk.)
@Crash, you are right. My patience bordered on stubbornness, hoping that a professionally run portfolio was the way to go. I did make the move today to move that remaining robo money to my self managed account. Takes 5 business days for the transfer to complete. I will then, once again, be flush with cash to distribute to existing funds.
My portfolio has become unbound, surpassing its all-time high achieved in 2021. It was close at year’s end, but blew past the previous peak in late January— despite two years of modest withdrawals since 2021. The usual suspects (Mag 7) have accounted for much of the recent growth but long time laggards have started to pick up as well (eg, small caps, value and foreign stocks.) Bond funds continue to underwhelm.
BHB continues to hamper results, but I'd bet it's not their fault. Lots of knock-on effects from elsewhere, and the FED's recalcitrance to reduce interest rates. I see no indication that the bank has been imprudent or foolish or careless or has stopped making money. Low P/E. Nice dividend. Is this not a "widows and orphans" stock?
I continue to CRAWL upward in tiny, labored baby-steps. Since Jan 1: +0.7%. Pathetic. 52 stocks 39 bonds 7 cash.
Comments
XMHQ still looks good in the IRA. With the taxable, well, I didn't push all my cash in at once.
I'm kind of surprised that people are getting that excited about a company that makes servers. I remember when they were just another company advertising in the free computer magazines that used to exist in the Bay Area. I'll have to check and see if DODGX still owns any HP.
Gail Dudack was one of the weekly “elves” who was consistently bearish on the markets week after week while all the other elves (6 or 7) were steadfastly bullish (1999). Rukeyser himself was also bullish. So eventually, in late ‘99 Lou demoted Gail from “elfship” and replaced her with someone who agreed with all the other elves. ISTM she declined to appear on his show after that.
Too soon old, too late smart.
“An eternal bull on the stock market, the more bullish, and less tolerant of dissenting bears he became, the higher the averages climbed. On the program of Nov. 5, 1999, Mr. Rukeyser announced the firing of the veteran panelist Gail Dudak for her 156 consecutive weeks of bearishly errant forecasting. The stock market peaked four months later.”
From what I can tell Park is perma bear, perhaps influenced by the dire predictions of the Canadian Housing Market. I only listen to a few things, as I don’t like to spend time on podcasts or Youtube when I can skim written text quicker.
Did you read her book? Does she have any suggestions other than T bills?
I loved that show too, watched it every week. I'm thinking it was Liz Ann Sonders. IMHO
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders
I can't say I've read her book. She is still correct about something she said many years ago: "Canada primarily sells rocks and trees to the world," still. That's the economy's backbone. Natural Resources. Think about the years-long, ongoing de-facing of the Province of Alberta with the oil sands projects, up north, around Ft. McMurray. And the more standard, legacy oil drilling in Alberta. ... WFG is a solid timber choice. The Big Banks are monopolies, in Canada. Bombardier, I think, is working to improve its situation vis-a-vis investors. But now, it's only available in the USA via an "F" share. You have to deal with the Toronto Exchange, I believe. (No, it's OTC. But now that I'm at Schwab, I must steer clear of OTC stuff. That's my understanding--- if I want to avoid FEES.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BDRBF?.tsrc=fin-srch
She strikes me as just sensible. That's what appeals to me.
See the chart https://schrts.co/hTeZtxIG
On Nov 1st I posted..."You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ."
So, you can work a lot harder and do much less, such as diversification, invest in lagging categories (value, SC, international, gold, utilities) since 2010.
Of course, at one point it will change but I have heard and read about it for at least 5-8 years.
Bonds: for several weeks already I posted that for 2024, you can use RPHIX="sub" cash and make about 6%, the next 2 CBLDX, RSIIX can make 7-9%. I'm a trader but I haven't done anything for weeks = smooth charts = 99+% invested.
PBS was the only thing I allowed on the tube. This must have been about 1976. I vaguely remember the elves, and a beetle-browed gent from Lazard Freres I thought made some sense at the time.
I'm going to give up totally on the Schwab Intelligent Portfolio, the robo. It has made 0% YTD after many years of lack luster return. At one time I split about 50:50 between the robo and self managed. I reduced the robo to ~15% by the end of 2023. It's high cash allowance, ~12%, makes fractions of a percent while the Schwab MM, which they don't use in the robo, has consistently made ~5%+ the past year. This cash allotment is an anchor. Also, it has consistently been heavy International and emerging markets which also hasn't worked out. I gave it time. I've had it for ~7 years and it hasn't performed any better than a target date fund. Worst in fact.
Nice bond divvies last night. Those are keepers--- until the postponed recession. (Junk.)
Thanks for reporting back on SIP, much appreciated.
I continue to CRAWL upward in tiny, labored baby-steps. Since Jan 1: +0.7%. Pathetic. 52 stocks 39 bonds 7 cash.