Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Or it could be the global market leader doing what it does, and has done for a while now, and will very likely continue to do for the foreseeable future.
And NVDA's P/E is virtually unchanged. So there's that, too.
It's far more about AI than just NVDA.
IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!
Disclaimer: We've been participating in NVDA via FSELX (and other funds) for a long time now and just BOT NVDA on Tues-Wed this week. We are at ~36% Tech and ~25% Mag 7, and feeling very comfortable.
There are a few high flyers out there. SMCI, Super Micro Computer Inc for example. If not moving markets, this stock seems to be moving the ETF XMHQ (Invesco S and P Midcap Quality). It's XMHQ's largest holding and is up ~208% YTD. This ETF has been mentioned a few times here in different posts. Not sure that ETF performance is sustainable
Or it could be the global market leader doing what it does, and has done for a while now, and will very likely continue to do for the foreseeable future.
And NVDA's P/E is virtually unchanged. So there's that, too.
It's far more about AI than just NVDA.
IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!
Disclaimer: We've been participating in NVDA via FSELX (and other funds) for a long time now and just BOT NVDA on Tues-Wed this week. We are at ~36% Tech and ~25% Mag 7, and feeling very comfortable.
I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!
@stillers - you said "IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!"
You are certainly welcome to your opinion however I'd be hard pressed to draw any conclusions about this board based upon let's say 20 respondents in various threads including your own thread which had less than 10 responses. I could be wrong (again) but I believe this board/forum has some 2-3K members.
All good here, question for @stillers. My perception is that you were an investor during the dot com era...we all know what happened to the tech companies then...lot of momo, hype etc...maybe not a good comparison agreed. But...we do know what a down -70% flush can do to your wealth
How do you see it now, vs 25 years ago?
BTW, props and congrats on being on the right side of these trades so far
On the same note, a prominent MFO member recently wrote:
“You have no reason to envy my investments. I have no reason to envy yours. I don’t know how much my brother-in-law’s portfolio made. I don’t care whether I beat the market, I care about whether I have a good life and make a difference in the lives of others. My early modeling said that I needed to earn 6% a year, minimum, to have the resources to do all that. Happily, I’ve gotten there.” (Since most have likely read this, I’ll skip the attribution. part).
To me, investing has been a 50 year long process based on clearly thought out plans which have been revised over and over again thru those years leading now to a great deal of restraint as I approach the “80” milestone. You don’t have to do it that way. But it’s the route I’ve chosen.
I’m a bit more optimistic than the distinguished author cited above claims to be. I suspect that a 7-8% annual return long-term with reasonable drawdowns (no more than 15-20% over 3 year periods) is a doable goal. That would not have been the case 3-5 years ago however. The difference now is in the much higher rate of interest available on bonds and cash.
At this point I’m thinking @stillers may have landed on the wrong forum. A generally “slow-mo” conservative lot here with an occasional shorter visit by those in despair needing support on one hand, and those who believe they have struck gold on the other. But, longer term ISTM a conservative lot. May I suggest any of the following where he might feel more at home?
I appreciate anyone's reasonable, well thought out views and investing ideas, but I would hope that folks will not assume that other people do not have just as reasonable and well thought out ideas for their own investments, if they do not match your own choices.
A few years ago the general buzz was CDs, bond ladders etc. I don't remember many people telling us to back up the truck for NVDA then, much less posts describing their business model, valuation etc.
I hope that your personal style and choice of investments works for you, @stillers, but I assume many people here would be very uncomfortable 36% tech and 25% Mag 7 ( I know I would)
I sat in MSFT for ten years when it went nowhere. At a P/S ratio of 40 to 60 I believe NVDA will at some point flatten out for a long time, if not crash, just as TSLA and META have done. If you can figure out when this is and get out, good luck! If you are prepared for the consequences of missing that exit, more power to you. Me, I would rather sleep at night!
I do wonder privately often, whether I'm shooting myself in the foot with my own system, plan, approach. My funds own the Mag7. Can't do much about that. I've seen SMCI run-up, too, LATELY. @MikeM. I deliberately avoid crowded trades. I like to wander away from the beaten path. Don't like to invest in companies which do stuff I don't like, ethically. THAT is a near-impossible job, though. They all own each other, fer crissakes. How long have I been waiting for BHB to move? Too long. It's dead money. For now. All promises are that it will rise with other financial institutions, when rates come down. But The Fed "is in no hurry." Dooky, Scum, pus and stinky poopies.
Giant party in the Markets today. I got no invitation. Apart from TS. And it did manage to drop from the opening bell, rather than rise. More dog feces. But only in a back-handed way, sure. Anyhow, with the rest of my single-stocks, I'm not at the party, but sitting home with house-brand coffee and fried eggs and toast, rather than Filet Mignon and caviar.
My funds are still the vast majority of the money. They will cheer me up today. ORK!
@rforno ..."I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!"
indeed, and they pop up in unexpected places. They are a top holding in Rajiv Jain's international and EM funds for reasons I've yet to hear an explanation. I hold what's considered to be a secondary AI play to NVDA, and that's Broadcom (AVGO), which I bought as an "accidental high yielder" in 2020.
"I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!" indeed, and they pop up in unexpected places. They are a top holding in Rajiv Jain's international and EM funds for reasons I've yet to hear an explanation.
I trust the fund managers I’ve hired to make those buy / sell / hold decisions for me! If there are some “babies” being thrown out with the “bathwater” today those managers are grabbing them up. Wait one year. A little over a year ago the hoopla here was all about 5% cash - greatest thing since sliced bread. A mere 18-months ago folks were were crying in their beer over double-digit portfolio losses. And 2-3 years ago the noise was all about I-Bonds!. Give me a break!
I figured I'd follow-up at the end of today, after a jump upward of +7.7% in TS shares. There is a still rather brand new-ish Morningstar analysis of the company, dated just more than a week ago. Yes, M* is less and less useful, but some might find this item helpful, I figure: Tenaris is the largest provider of oil country tubular goods, the steel tubing used to construct oil and gas wells. It controls nearly half the global OCTG market, providing premium and nonpremium solutions for offshore and onshore applications.
The firm manages low-cost, high-quality manufacturing operations on nearly every continent, enabling it to reap the benefits of a globalized supply chain while maintaining a localized presence. It continues pursuing capacity expansions in North America and the Middle East.
Tenaris aims to optimize its supply chain through the expansion of Rig Direct, a just-in-time inventory-management program that maximizes production efficiency through improved demand planning. Tenaris can manage the entirety of well operators’ tubular supply chains, from steel procurement to well installation.
Rig Direct helps Tenaris maintain customer relationships through collaborative product development and, to a broader extent, customers’ production plans moving forward. Better demand visibility leads to a more agile supply chain, as Tenaris can more easily optimize its inventory on hand, reducing raw material costs and storage costs. As of November 2023, 85% of Tenaris' North American customers use Rig Direct in some capacity.
The OCTG industry at large remains oversupplied and highly competitive. Generalist steel manufacturers now produce nonpremium OCTG products, since these don’t require specialization. The premium market, where Tenaris maintains substantial share, focuses on more-complex projects, such as offshore deep-water production. Premium products require more specialized manufacturing processes that, while not impossible to replicate, would require substantial investment by a new competitor to enter.
Brand reputation and customer trust are factors too, as complex projects typically involve a higher cost of failure. However, the premium space has seen new entrants over time, and we expect heightened competition in this once-concentrated market will persist, especially as revitalized offshore investment pushes the industry toward a multiyear upcycle. ---END---
"I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!" indeed, and they pop up in unexpected places. They are a top holding in Rajiv Jain's international and EM funds for reasons I've yet to hear an explanation.
I trust the fund managers I’ve hired to make those buy / sell / hold decisions for me! If there are some “babies” being thrown out with the “bathwater” today those managers are grabbing them up. Wait one year. A little over a year ago the hoopla here was all about 5% cash - greatest thing since sliced bread. A mere 18-months ago folks were were crying in their beer over double-digit portfolio losses. And 2-3 years ago the noise was all about I-Bonds!. Give me a break!
I think @PRESSmUP raised an interesting point worth kicking around an investment forum.
Speaking for myself only, I don't trust fund managers that goose their funds with stocks that are unrelated to the category, or the thesis. What's the point of owning an "EM fund" if the returns are driven by stocks from North America and Europe?
You say you don't care. OK by me.
What does that have to do with 5% cash, I-Bonds, or losses?
@WABAC …to be fully transparent, I own both of the funds I mentioned. For Jain, it works until it doesn’t.
I've looked at his funds. He seems to be the thesis and the category. Too much target risk for me when so many other funds are buying the same stocks he does.
But thank you for the clarification. I'll fix my previous post.
I am sometimes reminded of something Bill Gates wrote in March of 2023: "The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone." NVDA's performance today suggests AI's investment story is continuing to unfold and that NVDA remains on its cutting edge. Like @PRESSmUP, I purchased a little AVGO during the dark days of 2020. It is the only semiconductor stock in my portfolio as my individual stock holdings have a dividend focus. I am hopeful that the AI boom is for real and that it will increase the productivity of the economy for the next several years. But, as a 74 year old retiree who is making withdrawals from his portfolio, the MAG-7 stocks included in a few of my OEFs and ETFs coupled with AVGO provides enough of that kind of high growth oomph for my portfolio.
I don't trust fund managers that goose their funds with stocks that are unrelated to the category, or the thesis. What's the point of owning an "EM fund" if the returns are driven by stocks from North America and Europe?
You say you don't care. OK by me.
What does that have to do with 5% cash, I-Bonds, or losses?
If you need a break, take one.
I have little understanding of what you are talking about here @WABC. If you don’t trust the fund managers you’ve hired there are a great many other choices out there. Depends on age, risk tolerance, needs etc.
I was trying to put the current rage over NVDA and AI into some sort of perspective. I said: “Wait a year” (before passing judgement on other points of view). Than we can look back and see who was stupid and who was smart. If a year is too long a time horizon here for some I’m truly sorry. I like to wager $5 on an NBA game just for fun. But I’m not about to wager a life’s savings - or even a substantial part of it - on the latest greatest investment fad. People will do what they will do. And you are correct that it’s none of my damn business.
Not sure I understand the ruckus over @Stillers posting above. These boards are all about discussing each of our own investing strategies and I have learned a great deal from each of you. Whether you invest in Mag 7 directly or through funds, one cannot deny that these stocks are critical to the movement of the US market making up nearly 30% of the S&P 500. I value the opportunity to learn how each of you are approaching your strategies on these stocks as well as funds that are heavily invested in them. This makes me a better investor. Going back over the past couple of years, Stillers has made some pretty savvy calls on funds that are tech heavy like FSELX. As I recall he invested in this fund at the end of 2022 when I frankly didn’t have the balls to do so. At any rate I appreciate his contributions.
@stillers: IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!
So, that's what I stated.
To those who seem to have misinterpreted that statement, please point me directly to exactly where in there I stated that my current strategy is better or that anyone else's current strategy is worse.
I can save you all some time - I did NOT.
All I said, pointedly and I thought carefully, was that it is "astounding" and "telling." And IMO, it is.
But I don't think that merits another poster showing me the door to trader's sites of all places! If you've followed my recent posts, you'd KNOW I ain't no trader!
As I've explained on various posts, IMO, very clearly, my two recent stock trades are currently RARE events for us. But we did venture into TWO indv stock trades YTD that have both, for the time being at least, worked out very favorably:
GOOGL BOT and SOLD within 10 days for 6%, and NVDA BOT Tues-Wed this week, currently UP 18%. Still TBD if we will ca$h it in or HOLD it LT.
The interesting part of these two trades has been our strategy: Limited reliance on either technical and/or fundamental analysis (both of which failed us miserably at times years ago when we did actively trade indv stocks), though there definitely was some of both, and more based on investor psychology.
(FWIW: We plan to do more of these this year IF similar opportunities arise - they'll be blue chips and will include the same pivot point, either book a ST gain or HOLD the position LT.)
The GOOGL trade was far easier. Market participants, per everything we read and heard then, had inexplicably punished GOOGL stock ~6% upon its last earnings report. The ~6% drop was regarded as irrational and tradeable by the experts we follow. We jumped in and within 10 calendar days it had gained back its goofy 6% DROP. We sold it and booked the ST gain.
The NVDA, Tues-Wed, very brief DCA BUYs, are well documented on the BSW thread. NVDA had a +/-11% swing projected coming into earnings. The DROP, if it was to be a DROP, appeared to start on Tues and continued into Wed, and IMO, was going to be brief, unmerited and tradeable, or act as a great entry point for a LT BUY & HOLD.
We BOT shares on both days and had an avg cost basis just above the Wed close. We missed the ~4% swoosh DOWN after hours and lost out on our intended topping off BUYs. And the NVDA swoosh UP, well, is now market history.
Being LT owners of FSELX since near its inception, we watch Semis, and in recent years, NVDA, very closely (some say anally). We were intent on BUYing any NVDA move DOWN IF revenues and earnings kept its FWD P/E in the same current range. We rolled the dice on Tues-Wed that they would. And...Voila!
Yes, we started investing in 1980 and were participants in the dot com crash. We were punished severely as we were always 99+% stocks back in the day. We were young and stoopid and did NOT have a viable Exit Plan.
No, we do NOT see 2023-24 market conditions as anything resembling the dot com era and its historic ~77% NASDAQ crash. Without getting into the weeds on that topic, we'd offer that anyone who has researched that topic with any vigor likely agrees. That however is NOT to say that we can't/won't see yet another mighty DROP in technology - but ~77%, pretty sure not.
More importantly, anyone who did get bent over by the dot com crash (all four of our my hands are raised HIGH!) should have learned by it and should have a viable Exit Plan strategy in place. We do, but IMO, we won't be executing it anytime soon. All eyes are however trained on the Fed and the May meeting, as the Fed, IMO, NOT NVDA or Semis or Tech, are STILL the biggest threat to the markets.
Also note that @stillers is (or was…..harkening back to my interactions with him on the M* discussion forum) almost half invested in CDs, T-bills, and other things, so his holding FSELX, GOOG, and NVDA are “appropriate” and not some “wild” trader mentality. He has always had a firm anchor of safe, interest-earning funds (using that term for a pile of money, not necessarily as a term for mutual funds/ETFs/etc.)…which nowadays earns quite a bit. He takes (measured) risks on the equity side, rather than trying to find the best performing bond funds ST.
Not that he needs anyone to defend him (and yes, he sometimes comes off negatively in these forums, but he has been much more affable recently)…he is (like the rest of you fine folks) a good source for investment and trade information. He made some good calls on some tech trades and documented them here. And I actually would say he wasn’t bragging, as much as pointing out why he made those calls.
@stillers, I will post in the Mag7 thread soon, as I am overweight LCG and QQQ-type stocks. I’ll opine more in that thread.
All kidding aside, it's great to see that somebody gets it and took the time to (at least attempt to - we'll see) clarify! Yep, definitely NO intended bragging, WAY more about the somewhat unique strategy (for us at least) that worked!
For additional clarity...
We are in our 3rd, 5-yr Retirement Model Portfolio, so our strategy and holdings have changed significantly over our 12 years of retirement, mainly at the 5-yr intervals. (I've posted that a few times but some posters are still stuck on our first one!)
To wit, our (referenced) 5-yr, 5+% APY CD ladder is currently acting as two things: (1) self-funded LT care bucket and (2) ballast for our current, moderately(?) aggressive 85/15, stock/bond market portfolio. No dedicated bond funds for us at this point - bonds are only currently being held via PRWCX and FBALX.
I look forward to your post on the Mag 7 thread and intend to get back to it after the NVDA trade dust settles.
Hey, and thanks man!
EDIT: And if it means anything to anybody, on the Fido board (different handle, same photo!) I am relatively high in the all-important "Kudos Received' rankings and have received more Badges there than I know what to do with! I also stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, but sadly only once!
Lunch time back East, and TS continues to rise. Nice. No white knuckles here, just a smile. I'll get me some "joe" and catch up with the news. But what MATTERS is the share price at the END of the day. Looks like a very good week, overall. Pretty sunrise reflecting and shining off the tall buildings in our Honolulu cityscape today. 70, partly sunny at 7:38 a.m. Headed for 81 degrees today. Showers later.
Hi @stillers Have at it with tech. related. I'm with you in this area of investing. We have remained U.S. centered with our investments for many years and have whatever foreign pieces make a good fit in the tech. area; as with BOTZ (robotics), IHI and FSMEX both being (medical tech), genomics, FTEC (Fidelity tech.), FHLC (Fidelity Health ETF) and the broad based growth of FBCG (Fidelity blue chip companies). We've not been inclined towards value, small cap, international or EM. We held junk bond funds for a period near the bottom of the market melt in 2008 and for several months afterward, and have held IG bond funds and still do; as well as money market now at about 5% yield. We're about 40% equity. Although we've done dollar cost averaging now into funds; not unlike our early days with IRA's and 401k's. Good enough for now, at this house.
FBCG Top holdings Top 10 holdings AS OF Dec-31-2023 59.72% of 159 total
MSFT Microsoft Corp 10.15% NVDA NVIDIA Corp 9.81% AAPL Apple Inc 9.63% AMZN Amazon.com Inc 9.10% GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A 6.64% META Meta Platforms Inc Class A 4.99% UBER Uber Technologies Inc 2.62% LLY Eli Lilly and Co 2.34% NFLX Netflix Inc 2.22% SNAP Snap Inc Class A 2.21%
Comments
Nvidia Earnings Electrify Markets
Could be exhuberance by bulls, newcomers to the symbol buying, and/or shorts trying to exit their positions.
And NVDA's P/E is virtually unchanged. So there's that, too.
It's far more about AI than just NVDA.
IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!
Disclaimer: We've been participating in NVDA via FSELX (and other funds) for a long time now and just BOT NVDA on Tues-Wed this week. We are at ~36% Tech and ~25% Mag 7, and feeling very comfortable.
You are certainly welcome to your opinion however I'd be hard pressed to draw any conclusions about this board based upon let's say 20 respondents in various threads including your own thread which had less than 10 responses. I could be wrong (again) but I believe this board/forum has some 2-3K members.
How do you see it now, vs 25 years ago?
BTW, props and congrats on being on the right side of these trades so far
Baseball fan
“You have no reason to envy my investments. I have no reason to envy yours. I don’t know how much my brother-in-law’s portfolio made. I don’t care whether I beat the market, I care about whether I have a good life and make a difference in the lives of others. My early modeling said that I needed to earn 6% a year, minimum, to have the resources to do all that. Happily, I’ve gotten there.” (Since most have likely read this, I’ll skip the attribution. part).
To me, investing has been a 50 year long process based on clearly thought out plans which have been revised over and over again thru those years leading now to a great deal of restraint as I approach the “80” milestone. You don’t have to do it that way. But it’s the route I’ve chosen.
I’m a bit more optimistic than the distinguished author cited above claims to be. I suspect that a 7-8% annual return long-term with reasonable drawdowns (no more than 15-20% over 3 year periods) is a doable goal. That would not have been the case 3-5 years ago however. The difference now is in the much higher rate of interest available on bonds and cash.
At this point I’m thinking @stillers may have landed on the wrong forum. A generally “slow-mo” conservative lot here with an occasional shorter visit by those in despair needing support on one hand, and those who believe they have struck gold on the other. But, longer term ISTM a conservative lot. May I suggest any of the following where he might feel more at home?
- Elite Traders
- Stockaholics
- Super Trader Sam
- Traders Labratory
- Investors Hub
A few years ago the general buzz was CDs, bond ladders etc. I don't remember many people telling us to back up the truck for NVDA then, much less posts describing their business model, valuation etc.
I hope that your personal style and choice of investments works for you, @stillers, but I assume many people here would be very uncomfortable 36% tech and 25% Mag 7 ( I know I would)
I sat in MSFT for ten years when it went nowhere. At a P/S ratio of 40 to 60 I believe NVDA will at some point flatten out for a long time, if not crash, just as TSLA and META have done. If you can figure out when this is and get out, good luck! If you are prepared for the consequences of missing that exit, more power to you. Me, I would rather sleep at night!
Giant party in the Markets today. I got no invitation. Apart from TS. And it did manage to drop from the opening bell, rather than rise. More dog feces. But only in a back-handed way, sure. Anyhow, with the rest of my single-stocks, I'm not at the party, but sitting home with house-brand coffee and fried eggs and toast, rather than Filet Mignon and caviar.
My funds are still the vast majority of the money. They will cheer me up today. ORK!
indeed, and they pop up in unexpected places. They are a top holding in Rajiv Jain's international and EM funds for reasons I've yet to hear an explanation. I hold what's considered to be a secondary AI play to NVDA, and that's Broadcom (AVGO), which I bought as an "accidental high yielder" in 2020.
Tenaris is the largest provider of oil country tubular goods, the steel tubing used to construct oil and gas wells. It controls nearly half the global OCTG market, providing premium and nonpremium solutions for offshore and onshore applications.
The firm manages low-cost, high-quality manufacturing operations on nearly every continent, enabling it to reap the benefits of a globalized supply chain while maintaining a localized presence. It continues pursuing capacity expansions in North America and the Middle East.
Tenaris aims to optimize its supply chain through the expansion of Rig Direct, a just-in-time inventory-management program that maximizes production efficiency through improved demand planning. Tenaris can manage the entirety of well operators’ tubular supply chains, from steel procurement to well installation.
Rig Direct helps Tenaris maintain customer relationships through collaborative product development and, to a broader extent, customers’ production plans moving forward. Better demand visibility leads to a more agile supply chain, as Tenaris can more easily optimize its inventory on hand, reducing raw material costs and storage costs. As of November 2023, 85% of Tenaris' North American customers use Rig Direct in some capacity.
The OCTG industry at large remains oversupplied and highly competitive. Generalist steel manufacturers now produce nonpremium OCTG products, since these don’t require specialization. The premium market, where Tenaris maintains substantial share, focuses on more-complex projects, such as offshore deep-water production. Premium products require more specialized manufacturing processes that, while not impossible to replicate, would require substantial investment by a new competitor to enter.
Brand reputation and customer trust are factors too, as complex projects typically involve a higher cost of failure. However, the premium space has seen new entrants over time, and we expect heightened competition in this once-concentrated market will persist, especially as revitalized offshore investment pushes the industry toward a multiyear upcycle.
---END---
Speaking for myself only, I don't trust fund managers that goose their funds with stocks that are unrelated to the category, or the thesis. What's the point of owning an "EM fund" if the returns are driven by stocks from North America and Europe?
You say you don't care. OK by me.
What does that have to do with 5% cash, I-Bonds, or losses?
If you need a break, take one.
But thank you for the clarification. I'll fix my previous post.
I was trying to put the current rage over NVDA and AI into some sort of perspective. I said: “Wait a year” (before passing judgement on other points of view). Than we can look back and see who was stupid and who was smart. If a year is too long a time horizon here for some I’m truly sorry. I like to wager $5 on an NBA game just for fun. But I’m not about to wager a life’s savings - or even a substantial part of it - on the latest greatest investment fad. People will do what they will do. And you are correct that it’s none of my damn business.
So, that's what I stated.
To those who seem to have misinterpreted that statement, please point me directly to exactly where in there I stated that my current strategy is better or that anyone else's current strategy is worse.
I can save you all some time - I did NOT.
All I said, pointedly and I thought carefully, was that it is "astounding" and "telling." And IMO, it is.
But I don't think that merits another poster showing me the door to trader's sites of all places! If you've followed my recent posts, you'd KNOW I ain't no trader!
As I've explained on various posts, IMO, very clearly, my two recent stock trades are currently RARE events for us. But we did venture into TWO indv stock trades YTD that have both, for the time being at least, worked out very favorably:
GOOGL BOT and SOLD within 10 days for 6%, and
NVDA BOT Tues-Wed this week, currently UP 18%. Still TBD if we will ca$h it in or HOLD it LT.
The interesting part of these two trades has been our strategy:
Limited reliance on either technical and/or fundamental analysis (both of which failed us miserably at times years ago when we did actively trade indv stocks), though there definitely was some of both, and more based on investor psychology.
(FWIW: We plan to do more of these this year IF similar opportunities arise - they'll be blue chips and will include the same pivot point, either book a ST gain or HOLD the position LT.)
The GOOGL trade was far easier. Market participants, per everything we read and heard then, had inexplicably punished GOOGL stock ~6% upon its last earnings report. The ~6% drop was regarded as irrational and tradeable by the experts we follow. We jumped in and within 10 calendar days it had gained back its goofy 6% DROP. We sold it and booked the ST gain.
The NVDA, Tues-Wed, very brief DCA BUYs, are well documented on the BSW thread. NVDA had a +/-11% swing projected coming into earnings. The DROP, if it was to be a DROP, appeared to start on Tues and continued into Wed, and IMO, was going to be brief, unmerited and tradeable, or act as a great entry point for a LT BUY & HOLD.
We BOT shares on both days and had an avg cost basis just above the Wed close. We missed the ~4% swoosh DOWN after hours and lost out on our intended topping off BUYs. And the NVDA swoosh UP, well, is now market history.
Being LT owners of FSELX since near its inception, we watch Semis, and in recent years, NVDA, very closely (some say anally). We were intent on BUYing any NVDA move DOWN IF revenues and earnings kept its FWD P/E in the same current range. We rolled the dice on Tues-Wed that they would. And...Voila!
To respond to the @Baseball_Fan question:
Yes, we started investing in 1980 and were participants in the dot com crash. We were punished severely as we were always 99+% stocks back in the day. We were young and stoopid and did NOT have a viable Exit Plan.
No, we do NOT see 2023-24 market conditions as anything resembling the dot com era and its historic ~77% NASDAQ crash. Without getting into the weeds on that topic, we'd offer that anyone who has researched that topic with any vigor likely agrees. That however is NOT to say that we can't/won't see yet another mighty DROP in technology - but ~77%, pretty sure not.
More importantly, anyone who did get bent over by the dot com crash (all four of our my hands are raised HIGH!) should have learned by it and should have a viable Exit Plan strategy in place. We do, but IMO, we won't be executing it anytime soon. All eyes are however trained on the Fed and the May meeting, as the Fed, IMO, NOT NVDA or Semis or Tech, are STILL the biggest threat to the markets.
Thanks to @MikeW for the kind words!
Bottom Line: We're having a monster year (so far) but DI's iconic words about "dancing at the exit doors" are always bobbing and weaving in our heads.
Not that he needs anyone to defend him (and yes, he sometimes comes off negatively in these forums, but he has been much more affable recently)…he is (like the rest of you fine folks) a good source for investment and trade information. He made some good calls on some tech trades and documented them here. And I actually would say he wasn’t bragging, as much as pointing out why he made those calls.
@stillers, I will post in the Mag7 thread soon, as I am overweight LCG and QQQ-type stocks. I’ll opine more in that thread.
All kidding aside, it's great to see that somebody gets it and took the time to (at least attempt to - we'll see) clarify! Yep, definitely NO intended bragging, WAY more about the somewhat unique strategy (for us at least) that worked!
For additional clarity...
We are in our 3rd, 5-yr Retirement Model Portfolio, so our strategy and holdings have changed significantly over our 12 years of retirement, mainly at the 5-yr intervals. (I've posted that a few times but some posters are still stuck on our first one!)
To wit, our (referenced) 5-yr, 5+% APY CD ladder is currently acting as two things:
(1) self-funded LT care bucket and
(2) ballast for our current, moderately(?) aggressive 85/15, stock/bond market portfolio. No dedicated bond funds for us at this point - bonds are only currently being held via PRWCX and FBALX.
I look forward to your post on the Mag 7 thread and intend to get back to it after the NVDA trade dust settles.
Hey, and thanks man!
EDIT: And if it means anything to anybody, on the Fido board (different handle, same photo!) I am relatively high in the all-important "Kudos Received' rankings and have received more Badges there than I know what to do with! I also stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, but sadly only once!
@Crash - I could buy a couple of shares if you really want to bet on an instant crash. Let me know.