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I was never impressed with him. I don't know. There are periods of brilliance but also quite wrong or his predictions don't come to happen for a long time with opportunity cost associated with it.
FEB 2022([www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html) "Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
Reality: the 10 year peeked at 4.2% ==================== MAR 16 2022 (www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/16/the-fed-is-way-behind-says-doubleline-ceo.html) G: stocks will go higher from here
Reality: The SP500 fell about 17% by 07/2022.
==================
August 26, 2021(www.nasdaq.com/articles/bond-king-sees-gold-pushing-higher-from-its-current-price-2021-08-26) "The dollar going down" Reality: the Dollar went up from 08/2021 to 09/2022 by about 25%, which is a huge move. ==================
Gundlach predictions for 2019 (www.fa-mag.com/news/how-jeffrey-gundlach-s-predictions-for-2019-turned-out-53478.html) EM should outperform. Reality: they underperformed Stocks are value trap. Reality: 2019 was a great year for stocks, the SP500 made over 28%. The dollar would probably weaken. It was flat ==================
Gundlach predicted in 2016 that the 10 year treasury to be 6% by 2021, see (www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496) and again in 2018(www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/doublelines-gundlach-warns-us-treasury-yields-are-headed-higher.html).
Look, being a salesman and promoting your product (yourself) is part of the job. Being forgotten is FAR worse than the possibility of getting something wrong. Just the way it is...
@FD1000, way to go digging those. @Baseball_Fan: Great term "confidently wrong"! I love it!
Mr. G isn't the only "expert" that has been wrong but still keep predicting. I collected over the years many of these for other experts.
Why would anyone predict the future?
Great question!
I dunno.
But many former M* participants will likely remember a couple of years ago when you presented YOUR projections of TR and SD for THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (sic) for a long list of bond OEFs.
Do you still have those projections? Would love to see them again!
Given your "bond OEFs are better than sliced bread" mentality at that time, and the last coupla years of bondland disasters, gotta think (read, "know") YOUR projections were off by miles!
But I trust (in your world) not as far off as your former bond god, now monthly punching bag, Gundlach!
I find it useful when people make predictions. In fact I find it most useful when their predictions are outlandish. Every one in the room knows that outlandish predictions are for publicity. But included with the predictions is usually a theory if you want to have gravitas. In those theories and accompanied data points we may find evidence confirming or contradicting our own ideas. Otherwise my ideas tend to grow in a bubble. The faster my bad ideas are pricked the better off I am.
In investing money is not made by predictions. It’s made by sizing predictions and odds. No one talks or remembers sizing because that’s too complicated for keeping track in public.
Byron WIEN who passed away recently at 90 (1933-2023) had this philosophy on predictions (and he made many) - they were meant to be thought-provoking contemporaneously and it didn’t matter whether they turned out to be right or wrong (and he didn’t keep score himself, but others did).
Wish I had a dollar for every prediction out there. Mostly just folks gassing. But I suspect in a few rare cases intended to influence markets for their own benefit. ISTM money is made in markets when they move in ways the masses are not expecting.
@Yogibearbull - Byron Wien was a class act. I began taking an active interest in my retirement assets in the mid 90s. Wien was in his prime at that time - often cited / quoted in financial publications. Well balanced perspective. Those “predictions” ISTM were more of a fun “gig” and not his normal approach to investing. Highly personable in interviews. A humble fella,
I find it useful when people make predictions. In fact I find it most useful when their predictions are outlandish. Every one in the room knows that outlandish predictions are for publicity. But included with the predictions is usually a theory if you want to have gravitas. In those theories and accompanied data points we may find evidence confirming or contradicting our own ideas. Otherwise my ideas tend to grow in a bubble. The faster my bad ideas are pricked the better off I am.
In investing money is not made by predictions. It’s made by sizing predictions and odds. No one talks or remembers sizing because that’s too complicated for keeping track in public.
What does sizing mean? I don't think I have seen the word used this way before. So I don't want to guess, unless you give me multiple choices.
Suppose one makes 100 predictions and bets on $1 on every prediction thats one thing. But of course a trained market participant should do better. It’s not just the prediction but also a matter of how the market is priced for that prediction and as a result what kind of odds one can get of that prediction is right and the level of confidence is high. Then instead of betting $1 bet a bigger size. Sizing matters. Think of an equal weighted fund versus barons fund holding 60% in Tesla. Sizing matters. Ron Baron talks bullish about many stocks but he didn’t size them equally. He sized Tesla. That’s an example. Hope that helps.
Suppose one makes 100 predictions and bets on $1 on every prediction thats one thing. But of course a trained market participant should do better. It’s not just the prediction but also a matter of how the market is priced for that prediction and as a result what kind of odds one can get of that prediction is right and the level of confidence is high. Then instead of betting $1 bet a bigger size. Sizing matters. Think of an equal weighted fund versus barons fund holding 60% in Tesla. Sizing matters. Ron Baron talks bullish about many stocks but he didn’t size them equally. He sized Tesla. That’s an example. Hope that helps.
Thanks for the explanation. I figured it was something along the line of putting your money where your mouth is. I haven't seen sizing as the term of art for that. My prediction is: Odds are I will now see it used that way everywhere.
Invesco recently sized their equal-weight S&P 400 fund into a mid-cap version of SPGP. And I recently sized several sprawling Vanguard index funds right out of my life. Invesco, and I, moved our money where our predictions are. We will live with the consequences of our prediction in ways that the talking heads seldom do.
@WABC- "sizing" is sometimes used to suggest comparing or evaluating, as in "he sized up the two characters, and didn't like the looks of either".
When we visited Tombstone I found it to be a town full of cosplayers sizing each other up. One little man in black tried to size me up, and got the hairy eyeball for his efforts.
"I wasn't judging him, but I sure was sizing him up", know what I mean?
The place where I work out caters to an older crowd. The stations playing on the tubes are about half dedicated to the old westerns some of us grew up with. Lots of sizing up going on with Gunsmoke, Paladin, Rawhide, etc.
One of the greatest cowboy Western flicks ever is High Noon. Symbolism is next level. Very relevant in today's time. Fighting against tyranny. Speaking up with no regard or fear of being blacklisted. Not just following along with the crowd like some weak ass softie and taking the easy way out
Had and old psychology Prof in college show the class the flick. While I was a physics/microelectronics major this was the best class I ever was taught in my life. Prof was retiring and this was his last class. Totally didn't give a shit and put it all out there
Examples. Every class started with a question
Why when you start shaving do you start in the same place on your face every day?
Why is it do you brace yourself standing on the edge of a cliff or high building? Class answers so you don't accidentally trip and fall. Professor. No you don't trust yourself, you think you just might jump
The why (Y) question. I had plenty when I started my Plumbing apprenticeship many years ago. As for starting to shave in the same spot, I don't fit the question. Why, Derf
Shave every day? Hell, I gave that junk up a long time ago. Grew up Irish and Catholic. Poured into a stiff, unbending, inflexible mold while growing up. Stuck with it for too long. Then I made a marriage mistake, but it opened up a whole new world. And I also have a son.
Comments
FEB 2022([www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html)
"Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
Reality: the 10 year peeked at 4.2%
====================
MAR 16 2022 (www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/16/the-fed-is-way-behind-says-doubleline-ceo.html)
G: stocks will go higher from here
Reality: The SP500 fell about 17% by 07/2022.
==================
August 26, 2021(www.nasdaq.com/articles/bond-king-sees-gold-pushing-higher-from-its-current-price-2021-08-26) "The dollar going down"
Reality: the Dollar went up from 08/2021 to 09/2022 by about 25%, which is a huge move.
==================
Gundlach predictions for 2019 (www.fa-mag.com/news/how-jeffrey-gundlach-s-predictions-for-2019-turned-out-53478.html)
EM should outperform. Reality: they underperformed
Stocks are value trap. Reality: 2019 was a great year for stocks, the SP500 made over 28%.
The dollar would probably weaken. It was flat
==================
Gundlach predicted in 2016 that the 10 year treasury to be 6% by 2021, see (www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496) and again in 2018(www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/doublelines-gundlach-warns-us-treasury-yields-are-headed-higher.html).
Reality: On 12-31-2021 it was at about 1.5%.
sure makes for good entertainment though...and nice luncheons at fancy dinner clubs in NYC....
Oy Vey.
Why would anyone predict the future?
I dunno.
But many former M* participants will likely remember a couple of years ago when you presented YOUR projections of TR and SD for THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (sic) for a long list of bond OEFs.
Do you still have those projections? Would love to see them again!
Given your "bond OEFs are better than sliced bread" mentality at that time, and the last coupla years of bondland disasters, gotta think (read, "know") YOUR projections were off by miles!
But I trust (in your world) not as far off as your former bond god, now monthly punching bag, Gundlach!
Bill Gross Slams Jeff Gundlach: “To Be A Bond King or Queen You Need a Kingdom”
https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/billionaire-investor-bill-gross-slams-jeff-gundlach-over-shared-bond-king-nickname-to-be-a-bond-king-or-queen-you-need-a-kingdom/articleshow/103606510.cms
Eee Gads! Who needs it? I like StarTreck’s approach (in spirit) - “go where no man has gone before.”
When choosing active funds, I now prefer funds which are team-managed.
In investing money is not made by predictions. It’s made by sizing predictions and odds. No one talks or remembers sizing because that’s too complicated for keeping track in public.
@Yogibearbull - Byron Wien was a class act. I began taking an active interest in my retirement assets in the mid 90s. Wien was in his prime at that time - often cited / quoted in financial publications. Well balanced perspective. Those “predictions” ISTM were more of a fun “gig” and not his normal approach to investing. Highly personable in interviews. A humble fella,
Invesco recently sized their equal-weight S&P 400 fund into a mid-cap version of SPGP. And I recently sized several sprawling Vanguard index funds right out of my life. Invesco, and I, moved our money where our predictions are. We will live with the consequences of our prediction in ways that the talking heads seldom do.
Had and old psychology Prof in college show the class the flick. While I was a physics/microelectronics major this was the best class I ever was taught in my life. Prof was retiring and this was his last class. Totally didn't give a shit and put it all out there
Examples. Every class started with a question
Why when you start shaving do you start in the same place on your face every day?
Why is it do you brace yourself standing on the edge of a cliff or high building? Class answers so you don't accidentally trip and fall. Professor. No you don't trust yourself, you think you just might jump
Off topic , ya for sure
Best
Baseball fan
Why, Derf
Symbolism is powerful and runs deep. Lots of folks throw it over their shoulder and don't see the sense it makes. That's anti-intellectualism. That's a damnable sin.
https://www.amazon.com/Power-Myth-Joseph-Campbell/dp/0385418868
Now, what did Jeff Gundlach have to say about anything today? Gotta stay on-topic.