Last year’s plunge in the S&P 500 (SPX) made uber bear Mike Wilson the most celebrated stock forecaster on Wall Street. It’s a role he has failed to reprise in 2023.
The chief US equity strategist for Morgan Stanley on Monday conceded that he stuck with the pessimism for too long amid a rebound that has left equity benchmarks within spitting distance of erasing last year’s decline. His forecast for the S&P 500 remains 3,900, a level that has been left behind in the index’s 19% jump to around 4,560.
“We were wrong,” Wilson wrote in a note to clients Monday. “2023 has been a story of higher valuations than we expected amid falling inflation and cost cutting.” His team has recently shifted the focus to June 2024, for which the price target is set at 4,200, about 8% below its current level. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/were-wrong-morgan-stanley-wilson-191650465.htmlSuppose I’d be upset had I paid Mr. Wilson one dime for his prediction. But I didn’t. He gave it out free of charge, Sometimes you gets what you pays for.
Comments
However, it's tough to be bearish but wrong.
Initially, Mike Wilson was praised for his bold bearish call. But he stayed bearish too long. Of course, when the last bears throw in the towel, the market may turn south anyway.
This whole idea of making predictions seems ridiculous. I don’t. Most here don’t. If you do it, good luck. I recently read some interesting well laid-out macro analysis from Calimos. Dodge and Cox also publishes some good analytical pieces in their annual & semiannual reports. T. Rowe puts out a ton of the stuff. Sure, they require more labor to read through. But I’d read any of those before jumping on Mike Wilson’s bandwagon - or that of any other big name from the investment banks. These places are not your friend unless you have a heap of money with them. Maybe one day the SEC will look into all this ”free advice” eminating from the likes of M/S, Goldman, Wells Fargo, etc. They may argue it isn’t intended for retail investors and that it doesn’t constitute “advice.” Yep - I just saw Santa Clause.
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Works like a dream. But why doesn't he use it running his mutual funds?
I have never understood how a guy with such data at his disposal, such well throughout discussions and analysis can do so poorly managing mutual funds.
How much do you think the tea leaf reader meaning Wilson pulls down in salary annually? Where else can you be so wrong and get paid to keep doing it?
The weatherman=markets predictor
In the meantime, give me some of that "have-not" stuff.
Per Google search, here is a timeline of Mike Wilson's career at Morgan Stanley:
1989-1995: Investment banker
1995-2000: Head of Institutional Equity Sales
2000-2005: Head of Content Distribution for North American Equities
2005-2012: CIO of Wealth Management
2012-Present: Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer
P.S.: I do not hold Mike or anybody else responsible for my outcomes because at the end of the day, my actions are always dictated by my own mental inclinations.