Marketplace is a suite of daily programs about economics, culture and politics. That is, they talk about politics through the lens of its interplay with economics. The tone tends to be breezy and accessible, though the analysis and guests are pretty consistently solid and non-ideological. (The lead host, a former Navy fighter pilot and Foreign Service officer, remains stunned by Mr. Trump and his followers but that tends not to bleed into coverage the way it might with MSNBC or Fox.)
Yesterday's "that's cool!" moment was a really clear description of the cause of an imminent crisis in $20 trillion commercial real estate. David Sherman thinks the crisis will be monumental but didn't walk through the issue. Marketplace did: commercial RE loans are typically for five years. A record number of loans are due for renegotiation in the next year. Almost all of those loans will be at higher rates and many of those loans will be for smaller amounts. Lenders will grind more on borrowers' cash-flow assumptions and crisis management plans. In consequence, a bunch of deeply indebted borrowers may have to go into fire sale mode for some of their properties, either slashing rents to maintain near-full occupancy or selling properties for whatever they can recoup. This will not be a good thing.
That walk-through helped a lot.
You might find it worth your time to look into
Marketplace. It is
not NPR though, like NPR, it is listener-supporter. (I contribute monthly.) The flagship show is Marketplace. The daily chat between hosts is Make Me Smart. The program to help kids understand money is Million Bazillion. The show about how money messes with our lives is "This is Uncomfortable."
Comments
I also heard the story about the RE crisis on Marketplace. You are not alone!
Thanks much, David.
OJ
A description of each of the 11 shows can be found here - https://www.marketplace.org/shows/
(Not from the drop down "Shows" menu on the main page)
https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Baron-Real-Estate-Fund-Quarterly-Letter-3.31.23.pdf
The results of the fund BREIX in multiple periods means the manager knows what they are talking about.
it's not lighting the world on fire, for sure. The dividends are healthy, though....Any takers on my question? Thanks.
https://postalrealtytrust.com/
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/XNYS/PSTL/quote
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/PSTL/opinion
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/PSTL/analyst-ratings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/PSTL/technical-analysis
The stock is down -10.94% (M*) since I bought-in. But "Personal Rate Of Return" (TRP website after login) shows -8.19%. I suppose it's in the doldrums, a knock-on effect together with pretty much ALL Real Estate currently, eh? Dividends have indeed increased a tiny bit each year, between '22 and '23. I've owned it just less than a year. Not much history. In the end, I can't imagine the P.O. defaulting.
But Markets are never simple and straightforward. The only SIMPLE rule I've definitely observed in that Markets always overreact to data or events, both to the upside and the downside.
They were inherited. What does that do to the cost basis?
Bogleheads debate on forever stamps humorously fluctuates between replacement to TIPS vs quality of glue on those stamps.
Enjoy your weekend, Derf
The Plano properties are among a portfolio that would have required a paydown of $255 million and $80 million in capital spending.
Read in The Dallas Morning News: https://apple.news/AegWIHgtISIa34X7E9rHjDQ
I am assuming this is the right thread to post the above, given the OP. If not, please feel free to move it to the right thread.
I know everybody talks about office RE being the only sore spot in real estate. A few weeks ago two landmark hotels were surrendered by the owner in SF and I told myself that SF probably has some idiosyncratic issues and this is likely limited to SF and that if travel and entertainment is booming, the office contagion is unlikely to get to hotels.
I guess I need to read the Baron funds link @devo posted to understand the nuances of the RE.
Edit: Baron funds link covers Travel related real estate on page 8 of the 16 page document. Note that the fund, while talks about the great prospects for travel related RE, has allocated only 4.4% to Hotel & Leisure (15+% going to Casinos (grouped in Travel)).
Hotels 2.0
Timeshare Operators 1.5
Ski Resorts 0.9
Do you also go by another alias, such as @admin that is quicker to type on a phone?
Is there a thought of providing an ignore feature in this forum so one could ignore specific posters or threads to allow easy navigation? Many investment forums have this feature.
Thanks.
Desiderata
Edit - I’m wondering how someone would follow a protracted discussion involving multiple contributors if they had previously selected to “ignore” the comments of certain board members? Would come across as a discombobulated, perhaps completely unintelligible, muddle ISTM.
The short answer is that we haven't had a Vanilla programmer since Accipiter left.