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The bottom are likely in



  • edited August 25
    Sven said:

    If one buy and hold treasuries until maturity, they will get decent yields.

    Last I looked a few days ago, the most recent auctions had 26 week T bills yielding a bit more than 3% (annual). Not bad for a relatively short $ tieup.
  • Daily Treasury rates update at Treasury site after 3:30pm Eastern. There are also live quotes during market hours for IRX, FSV, TNX, TYX at Stockcharts, Yahoo Finance, etc.
  • edited August 26
    +1. yes. It's just a good thing I don't need the money. I can re-invest it. That mitigates the loss. I don't want to be out of bonds, totally.
  • @Crash
    "I believe David Giroux invests in this BL fund for his bond allocation."

    Per PRWCX/TRAIX Semi Annual Report dated 6/30/22.

    1.6% of fund assets held in TRP Floating Rate Fund, Institutional share class.
    13.3% of assets held directly in bank loans.
    6.9% of assets held in corporate bonds.
    8.1% of assets held in U.S. Treasury Notes

    Here's the link for the 6/30/22 semi annual report that just hit my inbox. As always, a good read.
  • Thanks, @Roy! I read the summary bullet-points and then discarded it, in rather a hurry today. I'll go over that link, tonight.
  • edited August 26
    Thank you for the detailed breakdown on the bond’s allocation. 8.1% treasury notes appear to be new. Is that his cash position now?

    Going into May-June, he had over 10% in cash and bought stocks.
  • Tues. 30 Aug '22: it just all sucks. I'll be growing cash, after this midsummer bear-rally and now the dire pull-back after Jackson's Hole just emitted what it emitted. YTD perf. now down to -12.9%. Gotta wait. That's simply the smart thing to do, at the moment.
  • Sometime holding cash is not all bad (sone call it trash). Time like this cash give you options. Money market yields have inched up to over 1-2% now from near zero.

    Whether Giruox’s timing is right to deploy his cash to buy tech stocks in June’s low, we won’t know until later this year. That is what investors pay him to make those difficult calls.
  • "The bottom are likely in"

    The bottom "are likely" quite a way down yet.
  • There are always the optimists. No buying on dips here. Will play defensive for next few months.
  • edited August 31
    Sven said:

    There are always the optimists. No buying on dips here. Will play defensive for next few months.

    Can’t blame you. I’m a “gradualist.” Always looking at ways to tilt in the direction of slightly more risk / reward without killing the goose. “Genius at work” - LOL
  • edited August 31
    Might as well go to sleep and not touch/bother/click/check investment accounts for 12 24 months
  • Time like this reminds me of the Bee Gees “ Staying Alive” back in the disco days.
  • edited August 31
    I do not think that is part of your nature at this time of your life; based upon your recent writes.
    As long as one does not become crazy from the investment challenge, and does not neglect health, family and friends;you'll likely arrive in one piece on the other side. On the other hand, if one becomes too consumed by the investment project to the point of causing mental or physical harm; then it is time to make a full evaluation of the circumstance known as "personal investing for profit".
  • edited August 31
    Thank you Sirs Mr Catch and Mr Sven

    I think I am doing good mentality and physically.

    We did have a 6% of double dip when sp500 reached 200 days ma last wk before Jackson Hole meeting. One week and it's night and day differences.

    I Only traded 5% of portfolio so it's ok take little loss but difficult see losses and almost impossible beat indexes.

    Bulk of portfolio in long term positions w bonds and sp500, indexes, small caps, vang2055, mid caps; think I have little bit hedging/buffer help from bonds so portfolio did not nosedive.

    I read somewhere that some firm did background research and found those did so well long terms (I think) over 10 15 yrs were investors that either deceased or forgot they had an account. So active sometimes not as good as passive....

    Maybe time to let boat sail by themselves down river/ oceans.

    Papa loves Bee Gees so do I.
  • edited September 1
    Not aimed at anyone. Just thinking a lot of folks appear never to have experienced a market correction of 10-15% or a bear market of 20-40% peak to trough in the major averages. Been at least a dozen in my lifetime. 07-09 was the worst. Some indexes and funds fell more than 50% over about a 2 year period. By contrast, the S&P was only down 17% YTD as of yesterday. Since ‘21 was a pretty good year, that 17% is probably not far from where the market topped out.

    Doing nothing works if you have a long enough time horizon. Folks working and averaging in haven’t the time some of us do to fret. At 35 I could have cared less what the market did. Slowly raising one’s risk exposure over months or years as the fall continues should also work. One caveat: If one was greedy and running a high risk portfolio before the market fall commenced, there’s not a lot of room left to increase risk level further.

    They say don’t invest money in the markets that you will need within 5 or 10 years (opinions on that differ). Mr. Geroux aims to break even within 3 years in his PRWCX - though there are no guarantees. We shall see.
  • @hank I'm 73 and probably have more than enough to live rather fine for the remainder of my life. But the psychology of saving most of one's life is still there. I'm only down about 2% but, where I come from, that is a lotta money in dollars even if a rather small percent. Sigh, I'm frozen in place but wanting to jump in, bottom out, and ride it back up. Being on the horse is a lot more fun than watching the race. The psychology is there but the longevity is probably not.
  • @ Hank. Speaking for my retired self,,,,, riding out a Bear market when one has an income stream from work is something entirely different than withdrawing funds from a shrinking pile. I am about 30% equities and it’s still unpleasant. While this year’s market is historically unremarkable, it’s not a non event for plenty of retirees.
  • It’s hard to view this rationally. That includes me. I do know incrementally adding risk worked in ‘08. But that was a very quick rebound (March 2009) by historical standards. Certainly anyone with the cash to pay taxes and under 65 or 70 ought to be thinking about a Roth conversion.
  • edited September 1
    Wow so true
    mind boggling
    Thank you for sharing thoughtful insights
    Mothers portfolio loss ~13% and it's devastating/extremly sad to see since both mom and dad live on fixed incomes + govt subsidized / 401k -rmd quaterly distributions.
    My heart almost stopped several times seeing Feds smashing low rates while trying to destroy equities demands to tame inflation.

    I was extremely careful manage their monies past 2 _3 yrs but sometimes you can never predicted future events, like Buying $BBBY Bonds was a great deal 4 5 yrs ago at bbb rated and good returns 5.5% it's on risks of default. Lucky mama only have about 5k in those bonds

    Market maybe turning around soon, we all hope... Leg down maybe ceasing at sp500~3895 but nobody know>
  • @JohnN - I’m surprised how bonds have fallen so rapidly. My GNMA fund has been hit hard. However, I view it as a hedge of sorts. Obviously it hasn’t functioned in that manner lately. But the market is throwing lots of curve balls. Just try to duck once in a while. Should get better.:)
  • edited September 1
    hank said:

    @JohnN - I’m surprised how bonds have fallen so rapidly. My GNMA fund has been hit hard. However, I view it as a hedge of sorts. Obviously it hasn’t functioned in that manner lately. But the market is throwing lots of curve balls. Just try to duck once in a while. Should get better.:)

    TUHYX junk bonds rose nicely in july and into august. getting chewed up and spit out, currently. in a big way. great yield. suck-ass share price. 9.41 percent SEC yield. and that's NOT the NCAA Southeastern Conference.

    AGEPX: EM (frontier) bonds: 15.08 percent SEC yield. Holy monthly dividends, Batman!
    Today, the beach was glorious. water temp = 81. So, at least there's THAT.,_Hawaii#Beach

    just noticed that agepx has its 6th-largest holding in gov't bonds from ukraine. maturity date is october 12, 2022. the yield on those ukraine bonds is 14.91 percent. yes. that position in the portfolio = 1.94 percent of total. only 19 percent of AUM is in the top 10 within that portfolio. "Buy War Bonds" at your local theater!

  • edited September 2
    I sincerely apologize
    I Think I am very wrong, after look at old data, recession-bears market downturns could be prolong (average) 18-24 months process. Probably several more legs downs sp500 likely to 3100 in next ~ 6 9 months per friend. Hang tight. Recession may end late 2023.

    Of course we do have many bulls fans out there and keep preaching could be short ( only lasting 6 -9 months) , and should ease after Feds fix inflation, pivots /eased of QT, and Russia china situations significant improve. We maybe 1/3 way through already and just ~4 6 months left. Nobody know for sure.
  • Anna said:

    @hank I'm 73 and probably have more than enough to live rather fine for the remainder of my life.

    Do you have heirs? If this really the case, why not stick all of your leftover moneys into VONE or your equivalent choice? And then seldom look at or think about it again?
  • @hank ;) Heirs are only in-laws most of whom I don't know all that well. VONE but don't look? Is that like riding the horse with your eyes shut?
  • edited September 2
    @Anna ,

    The question was from @davidmoran.

    Unless you’ve been actively investing a long time and enjoy “The hunt” I tend to agree with him. Your stated loss is very low. I track 40/60 PRSIX and it’s down over 10%, To be down 7% or less would be very good for anyone in the markets this year,

    PS - VWINX is also worth considering for all or part of your funds. Should keep you out of deep **** while growing your $$ modestly over multi year periods. But no guarentees.
  • Boy, I seem to be making a lotta mistakes today. Sorry @hank and @davidmoran .
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