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The bottom are likely in Good things maybe better 12 24 months from today Chance of another key leg down sp500 < 3650s in 4 8 wks minimal ( approaching 0 - 5%) base on previous historical models, but anything maybe possible Stay invested
This current bump up from the June lows seemed way too easy. Reading the latest Barron's, there's more than a bit of anxiety in the market, and some are voicing this pretty clearly, which I find odd. I'm holding at the moment, waiting. It feels like there's another shoe ready to drop.
This current bump up from the June lows seemed way too easy. Reading the latest Barron's, there's more than a bit of anxiety in the market, and some are voicing this pretty clearly, which I find odd. I'm holding at the moment, waiting. It feels like there's another shoe ready to drop.
Ding. Ring that bell. This is not over, yet. If I had a slug of extra cash, I'd throw it in my HY fund, TUHYX. 6.57% yield, but currently a 9.41% SEC Yield. Buy low, sell high. That fund is wayyyyyy down there. Good income producer, about now.
This current bump up from the June lows seemed way too easy. Reading the latest Barron's, there's more than a bit of anxiety in the market, and some are voicing this pretty clearly, which I find odd. I'm holding at the moment, waiting. It feels like there's another shoe ready to drop.
Don’t read too much into Barron’s. Forsyth’s been away the past 2 weeks by my count. Hopefully he’ll be back next week to provide some penetrating insights into what’s really going on …
As much as I love reading Barron’s, take everything you read there with a large grain of salt. ISTM what you’re getting largely (but not always) is conventional wisdom.
Nothing here said should overlook the fact that @JohnN’s OP is a combination of wishful thinking and weak / incomplete technical analysis. If you want to gamble with your $$ stick to Draft Kings or Fan Duel. Your odds are probably better there than playing against the sharpies that frequent Wall Street trading rooms.
@JohnN’s OP is a combination of wishful thinking and weak / incomplete technical analysis.
Awhile back he mentioned that he is down double digits as he continues to pursue the elusive bottom. It will be a long road to climb back to breakeven point this year and beyond.
Monday, August 22nd the broader market is down by over 1% as the Fed meets to decide next round of rate hike in September, regardless whether US is entering a recession or not. Europe is experiencing a slow down as well.
I’d never criticize somebody else’s investment approach. Being down double-digit (meaning 10% or more) wouldn’t be bad for some investors depending on their age and risk tolerance. By comparison the S&P is down nearly 13% YTD and the NASDAQ off more than 20%. So, somebody off 10 or 11% would be beating both of those indexes.
Out of curiosity I checked GLDGDX, a good proxy for gold miners. A lot of folks, including me, maintain a small exposure to miners. It, too, is off around 20% YTD. Yes, if you are sitting on a big wad of cash this year you’ve outsmarted the markets. Congratulations! But for long term focused investors cash, ISTM, is not a viable option. Inflation will eat you alive over longer time spans.
FWIW - I lost almost 22% in 2008. That was followed in 2009 with a gain of over 28%. I mention that only because if you’re down a lot, not all is lost. Markets will do what they will do.
Almost impossible to beat indexes Long term portfolio- Compared late fri -although only down 8% so far but 10 yrs performance dismal at less 10% where as sp500 >=12%
Did not loose much but bulk portfolio in bonds
401k returns similar returns to sp500
Prob may need place more into indexes for future distribution, watch long terms but you may loose more if catch many downturns
Voo spy qqq or vti could be best vehicles for long terms
It's not just the comments in Barron's, though that was surely most recent. Jamie Dimon chipped in also with a comment unlike him....economic "hurricanes" and whatnot. This current bump up looks to me simply to be a bear market rally.
In February of this year I posted about how Putin's army sitting on the border of Ukraine was my biggest concern for 2022. Well, that's unresolved. And that needs to be resolved prior to the weather turning in Europe before the gas situation turns deadly. Not to be a complete buzzkill...but Putin's getting his ass kicked. Normally, this might be a cause for celebration, but unfortunately he does indeed have a nuclear arsenal at his disposal. Perhaps he'll stray too close to one of those dangerous open windows Moscow is famous for.
I tend to agree this rally from June’s low resembles is more of a bear market rally until it falls again. The risk across the globe is far from subsided if not worsen in some situations such Europe’s gas supply.
Edit: energy, commodities and agricultural products are up in recent weeks even after a pause several months ago.
Yes, massive, tall piles of giant stinky doggy poopies on Monday, 22 Aug, '22. My only holding that's above the zero-line for the day was ET (oil and natgas midstream.). And THAT was by a singlepenny. My newly-bought REIT PSTL got hit but good. In ice hockey terminology, it was "driven into the boards." No panic, though. I've not even come anywhere close to putting enough $$$ into PSTL for it to be at my planned-for proportion of the entire portfolio. Gonna do more buying, while it's down. PRISX (Financials) got clobbered again. Did someone say that higher rates are GOOD for banks??????? I see @stayCalm's remark, above. Yes, you're making perfect sense. I like a very low cost-basis, though. Then there's not much regret if the shares take ages to recover in price. TUHYX is my only bond fund these days. ELEVEN percent of total. I reinvest the monthly payouts.
This shitstorm we are in the midst of is nowhere near done. Volatility will continue. The bear market rally was fun, and a nice distraction. Jax Hole feels pretty much irrelevant, anymore. Europe will soon be catching a cold, and it will morph into the flu. COLD winters. They have Norway and Qatar to turn to. Can those two sources fill the gap for Natgas for winter heating?
The new Cold War is well underway, in tandem with the hot war in Ukraine. Cheers for the Ukraine military. The world is bifurcated again. De-globalization. There are not so many severe economic restrictions upon Communist China as there are upon Russia. But the Chinese are behaving like an enemy and ought to be seen as such.
All of this plays hell with the world's economy. Most of Africa is a perpetual hot mess. The defacing of the continent at the Oil Sands projects in Alberta will continue unabated, as elsewhere. Green-goals have to be postponed. Sad, discouraging. Yet: Hydro’s primary aluminum production capacity in Norway is 100 percent supplied with renewable power. World-wide, Hydro’s corresponding renewable power share is above 70 percent. By the end of 2018, Hydro was the fourth largest buyer of renewable power intheworld,and the largest in Europe.
The low carbon footprint of Hydro’s aluminium is a unique competitive advantage, and it is in large part enabled by efficient technology and emission-free power in the aluminium production process. ---From NorskHydro's website. ADR = NHYDY.
thanks, yogi. sven said it for me. yes, john n, correct. now that i'm in, i don't plan to ever sell my ET. i want to give my nat. resources fund a punch in the face. PRNEX. Anyhow, NHYDY looks attractive, perhaps a little lower than where it sits tonight.
Not sure I agree with the article posted above. How can bonds rally when the Fed is raising rates until inflation is contained? This can continue until 2023. Powell does not care if the rate height and QT will trigger a recession. Don’t know if the summer rally continues or if that is a bear market rally.
Not sure I agree with the article posted above. How can bonds rally when the Fed is raising rates until inflation is contained? This can continue until 2023. Powell does not care if the rate height and QT will trigger a recession. Don’t know if the summer rally continues or if that is a bear market rally.
I think they're saying there will be a flight into quality--- Treasuries---- thus raising the price but reducing the yield. As for me, I'm sticking with my stake of 11% of portfolio in Junk. Juicy yield, just now. Reinvesting it all.
If one buy and hold treasuries until maturity, they will get decent yields. Treasury funds and ETFs are different story and they are down ranging from 3 to 22%! YTD total bond index is also down 10%. So much for flight to quality and counteracting the equity risk.
The two T. Rowe Price HY bond funds are down by 8 - 10%, while the bank loan fund (still junk bonds) is somewhat better at -0.9%. I believe David Giroux invests in this BL fund for his bond allocation. This year there are few bond funds that remain positive in this rising interest rate environment.
TUHYX is having a tough year. I prefer not to chase high yield at the expense of total return. Experience tells me that steep loss in one year will take a long time to fully recover. During stress time such as March 2020, all HY bond funds fell along with equities - it was ugly. High quality treasuries did better and bounced back quickly as Fed cut rates to near zero (0.25%) and ended by year end in black.
My point is that majority of investors use bond funds/ETFs in their tax-deferred and taxable accounts. While buying individual treasuries and holding them to maturity is doable, it is not so practical for many including myself.
For now I will stick with short term TIPs ETFs and BL bond funds.
Comments
As much as I love reading Barron’s, take everything you read there with a large grain of salt. ISTM what you’re getting largely (but not always) is conventional wisdom.
Nothing here said should overlook the fact that @JohnN’s OP is a combination of wishful thinking and weak / incomplete technical analysis. If you want to gamble with your $$ stick to Draft Kings or Fan Duel. Your odds are probably better there than playing against the sharpies that frequent Wall Street trading rooms.
Monday, August 22nd the broader market is down by over 1% as the Fed meets to decide next round of rate hike in September, regardless whether US is entering a recession or not. Europe is experiencing a slow down as well.
Out of curiosity I checked
GLDGDX, a good proxy for gold miners. A lot of folks, including me, maintain a small exposure to miners. It, too, is off around 20% YTD. Yes, if you are sitting on a big wad of cash this year you’ve outsmarted the markets. Congratulations! But for long term focused investors cash, ISTM, is not a viable option. Inflation will eat you alive over longer time spans.FWIW - I lost almost 22% in 2008. That was followed in 2009 with a gain of over 28%. I mention that only because if you’re down a lot, not all is lost. Markets will do what they will do.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=GDX&compare=GDXJ,GLD&id=p28896619951
Amazingly, GDX just turned positive for the day. Probably won’t last, but nice to see a bit of green somewhere.
Hi Sirs:
Almost impossible to beat indexes
Long term portfolio- Compared late fri -although only down 8% so far but 10 yrs performance dismal at less 10% where as sp500 >=12%
Did not loose much but bulk portfolio in bonds
401k returns similar returns to sp500
Prob may need place more into indexes for future distribution, watch long terms but you may loose more if catch many downturns
Voo spy qqq or vti could be best vehicles for long terms
Bought Leap covercalls spxl this morning
It's not just the comments in Barron's, though that was surely most recent. Jamie Dimon chipped in also with a comment unlike him....economic "hurricanes" and whatnot. This current bump up looks to me simply to be a bear market rally.
In February of this year I posted about how Putin's army sitting on the border of Ukraine was my biggest concern for 2022. Well, that's unresolved. And that needs to be resolved prior to the weather turning in Europe before the gas situation turns deadly. Not to be a complete buzzkill...but Putin's getting his ass kicked. Normally, this might be a cause for celebration, but unfortunately he does indeed have a nuclear arsenal at his disposal. Perhaps he'll stray too close to one of those dangerous open windows Moscow is famous for.
Edit: energy, commodities and agricultural products are up in recent weeks even after a pause several months ago.
This shitstorm we are in the midst of is nowhere near done. Volatility will continue. The bear market rally was fun, and a nice distraction. Jax Hole feels pretty much irrelevant, anymore. Europe will soon be catching a cold, and it will morph into the flu. COLD winters. They have Norway and Qatar to turn to. Can those two sources fill the gap for Natgas for winter heating?
The new Cold War is well underway, in tandem with the hot war in Ukraine. Cheers for the Ukraine military. The world is bifurcated again. De-globalization. There are not so many severe economic restrictions upon Communist China as there are upon Russia. But the Chinese are behaving like an enemy and ought to be seen as such.
All of this plays hell with the world's economy. Most of Africa is a perpetual hot mess. The defacing of the continent at the Oil Sands projects in Alberta will continue unabated, as elsewhere. Green-goals have to be postponed. Sad, discouraging. Yet:
Hydro’s primary aluminum production capacity in Norway is 100 percent supplied with renewable power. World-wide, Hydro’s corresponding renewable power share is above 70 percent. By the end of 2018, Hydro was the fourth largest buyer of renewable power in the world, and the largest in Europe.
The low carbon footprint of Hydro’s aluminium is a unique competitive advantage, and it is in large part enabled by efficient technology and emission-free power in the aluminium production process.
---From Norsk Hydro's website. ADR = NHYDY.
If have little more risks buy little dca slowly
If buy probably bag holders- 12 36 months
It's all about inflation. Has it been tamed? I doubt it. But that's based on my experience last time.
Maybe this time is different?
“This Time, It’s Different.”
David Rosenberg impresses me. So savvy.
https://financialpost.com/investing/recession-fears-set-to-split-stocks-and-bonds-after-summer-rally
The two T. Rowe Price HY bond funds are down by 8 - 10%, while the bank loan fund (still junk bonds) is somewhat better at -0.9%. I believe David Giroux invests in this BL fund for his bond allocation. This year there are few bond funds that remain positive in this rising interest rate environment.
My point is that majority of investors use bond funds/ETFs in their tax-deferred and taxable accounts. While buying individual treasuries and holding them to maturity is doable, it is not so practical for many including myself.
For now I will stick with short term TIPs ETFs and BL bond funds.