Barron's Midyear Roundtable

Comments

• hank

  July 2022 edited July 2022

  Barron’s looks fascinating this week.
  
  “Estée Lauder is in the beauty business—and its stock is starting to look like a beautiful buy … Estée Lauder stock (ticker: EL) has fallen 34%, to a recent $245, in 2022, worse than the S&P 500 index's 19% drop.”
  
  Hmm … “Once More Unto the Breach” ?
  
  Article: “Este Launder’s Not So Secret Ingredient” - by Jacob Sonenshine
  -
  
  Another must-read: “Levering Japanese Inflation” - by Lewis Braham
  
• hank

  July 2022 edited July 2022

  William Priest recommends LSXMA, holder of SirusXM. SiriusXM derives 80% of its revenue from subscriptions by “relatively affluent drivers.”
  
  Just wondering. Yes, 80% of new cars come with Sirius. However, ISTM it will take a backseat to direct internet connectivity / streaming in coming years, allowing a broader and cheaper range of offerings. I could be wrong. But I’d liken buying Sirius to investing in a beautiful Kodak camera or suburb 8-track tape player.
  
  Another of his recommendations, DE, is more interesting. I was surprised to check and find it down a bit this year after a hot start. Likely related to the downturn in housing. In addition to agricultural products, DE Makes a lot of construction machinery.
  
  
  More …
  
  WOW - ELLENBOGEN sees a reassion coming sooner than most expect. Pretty downbeat on the economy. ABBY COHEN just the opposite. No recession in sight! Do academics tend to view the economy more through rose colored glasses? But BHANSALI takes the prize for bearishness, forecasting a “lost decade” of multiple years of equity declines.
  
  
• Crash

  July 2022

  A.J. Cohen has had quite a career. Years ago, I noted any public statement she might make. Later, it always seemed she was..... WRONG.
• hank

  July 2022 edited July 2022

  Crash said:

  A.J. Cohen has had quite a career. Years ago, I noted any public statement she might make. Later, it always seemed she was..... WRONG.

  On Rukeyser’s show she seemed always the optimist. Nick-named “Gabby” by some back than. I feel in hindsight that was unfair. Of course, in those days she was with Goldman Sachs, not teaching as today. Whatever one thinks of her forecasting skills, I’d say those are some fortunate students.
  
  
• Crash

  July 2022

  fortunate students, agreed.
• sma3

  July 2022

  I just got a new truck with Sirius XM for three months. Then they send me an offer for an additional two months free if I sign up for a subscription
  
  Subscription costs $75 for three months! I like classic rock and roll 60's, classical music and opera.
  
  There are only a couple of "classic" rock stations, neither of which beats my free FM station. Their classical music is a joke. While opera is great on TV with subtitles, I doubt anyone but real buffs will listen on radio constantly
  
  This seems an overpriced poor quality product where there is a free alternative. Maybe if you have to have sports on all the time, but not for me
• BenWP

  July 2022

  I agree with you, @sma3, on Sirius. For $99 per year Apple Music offers practically everything ever recorded. My tastes are somewhat similar to yours and the only recordings I cannot get on AM are Harmonia Mundi’s catalogue. I wouldn’t know about opera, especially historical recordings, as my tastes don’t run that way.
• hank

  July 2022

  Thanks for chiming in guys. To be honest, my 2018 Honda didn’t come with Sirius. But the previous car had it and I found myself listening to Bloomberg Radio most of the time. (Financial talk junkie). Now, I realize that Bloomberg Radio is actually free of charge off the internet. You don’t need Sirius to listen. However, have resisted the temptation to listen in the car. I’m with @BenWP. Apple music is awesome. Recently switched over from Amazon’s Premium Prime music which cost $2 more monthly. The big difference is Apple’s product has fewer glitches, takes voice commands better and integrates seamlessly with my IOS devices.
• dstone42

  July 2022

  This discussion has certainly wandered off of the OP subject! But I'll chime in about Sirius. As noted, three months free came with my new Toyota. At first I did not continue with a paying subscription. Then my wife says "I'll give it to you for Christmas". When I called Sirius, I bought a year for a little more than $100. Every year, they want me to renew for much more than that; I call up and cancel and the Sirius folks find me an offer for a little over $100 for the next year. So I still have it in my Prius. I get it no matter where I am ( which sometimes means driving through some deserts).
  My favorite channels are 50's Rock and Roll, 60's Rock and Roll, 70's Rock and Roll and 80's Rock and Roll -- I flip back and forth. Often I listen to CNBC. Or there's at least one classical channel, and an Outlaw Country channel and a Tom Petty channel and a classic rock channel. Many others, but I can only manipulate so many preset buttons.
  I don't even spend that much time in my car; I think there are ways to play Sirius on a phone app or on our Amazon Alexa.
  I could live without Sirius XM, but I like it enough to keep it for the price and ease of use.
  Which is probably the thinking behind owning LSXMA.
  David
• hank

  July 2022 edited July 2022

  I’ll accept responsibility for thread wandering off course. Here’s a mid-course correction.
  
  Having finished reading the Barron’s Mid-year Roundtable I’m struck by how dower / downbeat most of the participants sounded. Know little of BHANSALI but his her forecast for a lost decade doesn’t resonate with me. 10 year stretches where a diversified basket of equities don’t generate at least some profit would seem rare to me. Perhaps some hyperbole in his her assessment. Scott Black dates back to the 90s when I first began reading extensively about the markets. As far as I know a man of reason. He sees trouble ahead, a falling stock market. Gabelli is usually upbeat. Here, he’s neutral at best on the next several months, but thinks the markets will respond positively after the November elections.
  
  I’ve mentioned Abby Cohen already. She’s semi-optimistic, based it seems on the correction in valuations. David Giroux was the final contributor. Probably no surprise that he sees much value in the markets and has been spending down dry powder and adding equity positions. Still likes leveraged loans, but thinks the stock market offers better opportunities now. Cast a dour note on consumer staples, which surprised me. Likes tech.
  
  ISTM many (not all) of the stocks recommended by participants were in niche companies. Companies making batteries or the necessary components for EV vehicles comes to mind. While they would be fine in a fund or highly diversified portfolio, they seemed a bit risky for an average small investor to play around with other than a small spec position. Giroux? I wish he’d added more than he did. Can’t recall his saying anything in the interview about AMZ, but quite certain he owns and likes it. If any of them referenced the FX markets / strong dollar I must have missed it. And, I think that’s an important part of the equation.
• yogibearbull

  July 2022 edited July 2022

  Rupal Bhansali is the chief value lady at Ariel. https://www.barrons.com/articles/most-influential-women-in-us-finance-rupal-j-bhansali-51646430102?mod=Searchresults
  
  Scott Black is a bottoms-up strategist who builds his own earnings estimates. While there are more opportunities for mistakes, this is a difficult detail work and there are only a few bottoms-up analysts/strategists. This is unlike many top-down strategists who start with broad macro picture about the economy and GDP and then arrive at some % estimate changes to SP500 earnings.
  
• MikeM

  July 2022

  David Giroux was the final contributor. Probably no surprise that he sees much value in the markets and has been spending down dry powder and adding equity positions.

  So, I guess I've been buying
• Crash

  July 2022

  MikeM said:

  David Giroux was the final contributor. Probably no surprise that he sees much value in the markets and has been spending down dry powder and adding equity positions.

  So, I guess I've been buying