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Are you selling, buying, or staying the course these days.

edited September 2012 in Fund Discussions
I don't post much in the fund Discussion area and mostly lurk, but i was wondering what other forum members are doing these days - with the election coming up, employment stats, growth in china (or lack thereof), and issues in in europe.

I've attached a poll - it would be interesting if anyone was interested in partaking in the poll, as well as posting comments here. The poll is pretty easy to use, just look on the right hand side of the screen and click on the item you want to vote for. You can view the poll if you are not logged in, but you have to log in to vote.


A Suggestion: If you create a poll on another discussion - which you can.
add the word #polldata to your discussion or comment. then it will be easy to search for any poll that is listed on the discussion board by clicking on #polldata.
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Comments

  • hmmm. just seeing a question, not clickable items.
  • refreshed nicely. voted.
  • edited September 2012
    Hi Accipiter- the forthcoming revision to the user guide will have a page on setting up Polls. I'll incorporate that hint to that material. Thanks.

    Sticking Tight, he said nervously...

    Regards- OJ
  • Sticking tight/uncertain right now, but ready to sell if things go south with high volume. I'm 31% cash, 19 US and 4 Foreign equities and 44 bonds. I have so little conviction on how the market will go that I vacillate between cutting the bonds to cash or getting entirely out of equities. I'd like to take a long cruise without media, but I can't afford it.
  • edited September 2012
    Reply to @Old_Joe:

    I hope that members are downloading the user guide, excellent graphics and a great explanation of features that can enhance the use of this forum. And perhaps it will convince more people to become members and post and to login for all the potential features - such as notifications, poll, bookmarking, etc. Great user guide, one of the simplest and explanatory guides I've seen.

    The user guide is available from the home page - resources tab - users guide.
  • That's exactly why we have no television or computers at the weekend house. At least half the week is sane.

    46% cash / 34% bonds / 20% equities right now.
  • edited September 2012
    I'm either "neutral" or "none of the above" -

    Clipped a percent or so month ago. Will likely do so again near DJI 13,500. (1) Reflects normal rebalancing as equity holdings have risen (2) Also reflects a more cautious stance as valuations rise. My concern is that the question enlightens very little. Reason being that "momentum" investors will be adding to equities at precisely the same time others are cutting back for the above stated reasons. Without understanding the reasons for buying or selling, little can be gleamed from the results.


  • FWIW, I don't try to time the market, except in extremely small increments (around 1% of portfolio or less). So the only actions I am taking right now are waiting for a dip to do a Roth conversion (which is, in a sense, adding money to equities, since I'm converting pre-tax dollars into post-tax dollars worth more), and selling a few hundred dollars in an inherited IRA for its MRD (non-spousal inherited IRAs have MRDs, regardless of your age, or even whether it's a Roth or traditional).

    Thus, buy and sell is my response, however petty the amounts.
  • edited September 2012
    Reply to @hank:

    no offense taken hank.

    fair enough but ...
    thats why there is a comment section:)

    if anyone votes and want to put the reasoning behind their vote. they have a forum. It stills give you a picture, whether it was done by picasso or the artistically challenged.
    Perhaps future polls will provide more benefit as the more informed forum members create their own polling questions.
  • Reply to @Accipiter: Thanks & No offense intended. Just trying to put some perspective on this. Upon retrospection, guess I'm best described as buying and selling - usually looking to tweak somewhere. Can't sit still long.

  • edited September 2012
    Sold two stock positions today that wanted to move on from and were illiquid, as well. Will likely move on to other things (not moving to cash for long), but unsure what as of now.
  • Blushing... Thanks!
  • edited September 2012
    Hi Accipiter,

    Thanks for doing the poll.

    Score me as sticking tight as I recently reduced and I am now watching being that I am at the mid point in my equity allocation at about 50%. As of Friday close I compute the Index selling on a forward price to earnings ratio at 13.3 and on a trailing price to earnings ratio at 16.0. From this, I conclude it is fully priced. Should the S&P 500 Index continue its upward march I’ll be reducing equities as they will have become overbought from my thinking. Should there be a five percent, or greater, pull back I’ll be modestly increasing my allocation in equities accordingly.

    Based upon my risk tolerance score as determined by my broker my allocation to equities ranges form forty to sixty percent. As stated above I am currently at the mid point and have room to maneuver either upward or downward based upon market valuation movement.

    I am about 20% cash, 30% income and 50% equity & other.


    Good Investing,
    Skeeter
  • Howdy Skeeter,

    You noted: "Based upon my risk tolerance score as determined by my broker my allocation to equities ranges from forty to sixty percent."

    Is this the broker issued test?

    Regards,
    Catch
  • edited September 2012
    Hi Mark,

    Yes indeed it was and most investent firms now have some type of risk tolerance test. My score worked out to that of a growth & income allocation and with that the equity allocation ranged form forty to sixty percent. Which is fine with me as it allows for some movement from time-to-time. The fixed income part ranged form thirty to fifty percent and I am currently at the low end at thirty percent. For me, cash bubbles accordingly. However, for them, they want you to hold little cash as it ranges form zero to ten percent on their chart ... and, as you can see, I am overweight cash.

    If you get overweight in any of the areas ... the broker will call you about rebalancing your portfolio back in line with their recommendations. Recently, he called me wanting me to put some cash into play and recommended that I raise both income and equities by five percent. Told him, I'd think on it ... but, I was actually considering selling equites down as I felt they were coming fully valued ... and, on the income side I was concerned about interest rate risk and I felt income should be form my thinking held in the low range. Told him they just needed to increase the cash range to where if someone was in the low range in income and in equities then their needed to be room within the cash allocation to allow for this. Let's see, thirty percent income and forty percent equity leaves room for thiry percent for cash.

    He told me if my allocation got too far out of parameters ... he'd be getting a notice form his compliance officer. Told him fine ... Just have his compliance officer call me. They are for some reason mailing me verifications for me to sign and return which I have trashed.

    Next thing I know, my account might be on lock down ... and, if it is ... I will be moving somewhere else. Thinking of going to Scotttrade if they keep this up.

    Have a good evening,

    Skeeter

  • Wow, that's plain scary. At Schwab the user software will let you set up a portfolio percentage allocation based upon a series of questions to establish a risk "profile".

    If you go back and check on that it will nag you about being in need of rebalance, but it's your call and strictly up to you.

    And they talk about the government being big brother!
  • I've been shifting out of mostly bond funds and buying moderately/aggressively allocated stock funds. I've sold 20% of RNSIX to buy WBMIX and AQRIX. And, holding significant 30% stake in FAAFX. That said, I hedged slightly and sold another 10% of RNSIX to buy RPHYX. I know you guys will laugh, but experience tells me that the Dow will break the 14000 mark before this reluctant bull recedes. It is extraordinary that the Dow was at 7949 when Obama was inaugrated. As climate remains favorable for US businesses to make profit, earnings will continue to grow and there will be attendant rise in stock price. You can all give me a hard time if things head south.
  • And they talk about the government being lax in allowing brokers to sell you things that are unsuitable for you. How is the brokerage going to know if something is unsuitable if investors don't declare what's unsuitable?

    Specifically, SEC Rule 17a-3(a)(17). (Start reading at Customer Account Record)
    The Commission is adopting new Rule 17a-3(a)(17) under the Exchange Act, which requires broker-dealers to create a record containing certain minimum information as to each customer. The primary purpose of Rule 17a-3(a)(17) is to provide regulators, particularly State Securities Regulators, with access to books and records which enable them to review for compliance with suitability rules. Rule 17a-3(a)(17) also requires broker-dealers to furnish that information to each customer on a periodic basis. The rule should not be construed to affect or supersede any federal, State, or SRO requirement, including those relating to "know your customer," suitability, or supervisory obligations.
    It goes on to describe what information the brokerage must ask for, how often it must ask you to review that information, etc. There's a simple response if your investments are out of line with what you said you wanted - change what you tell them. You can generally do that proactively, so you won't even get nagged about it.
  • edited September 2012
    Howdy Skeeter.
    Your discussions here, indicate you already have a plan in place using your own skills.

    You noted: "Next thing I know, my account might be on lock down ... and, if it is ... I will be moving somewhere else."
    Based upon what you noted about this account; is this all part of formal/legal language written into a signed contract?

    I would have already told them goodbye in 7 languages. Hopefully, their (the advisor company) fees do not exceed the perceived value of their advice.

    Take care,
    Catch
  • Reply to @Skeeter: your investment advisor is required by the regulatory authorities to maintain your investments within the ranges (guidelines) you have on file with them. To get them off the regulatory hook -- which is quite severe, you would need to either amend the guidelines or agree in writing that you are aware you're not within your guidelines and are comfortable with this. They are just doing their job in a highly regulated industry.
  • Hi fundalarm,
    Your note, related to msf's statement above.
    We don't have similar exclusions from Fido with the brokerage accounts. Memory being an issue for me with this. I do not recall indicating to Fido, any particular "zone" of investment risk(s) that would cause Fido to notify us that we are attempting to travel outside of our comfort zone with any of our investments.
    I surely must have forgotten something that was asked/requested by Fido many years ago.
    Thank you and msf for your details about this area.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • I've started taking some profits solely for tax management purposes. I still have outstanding losses on the books and am trying to whittle them down. I'm rolling the money over to funds I expect to hold long term. As I have expressed multiple times in the past, I've been steadily moving toward and ALL-OUT - ALL CAP Asset allocation portfolio with no "mid cap", "large cap" etc in the name. Also trying to diversify into alternative assets a little.

    Finally, and people can shoot me if they feel better, I've been buying some HSGFX like I have also expressed before. I just want to prove shameless M* wrong. WWWFX anyone?
  • Reply to @VintageFreak: WWNPX is still below where I sold it in 2008. What alternative assets/funds have you been looking into?
  • edited September 2012
    Reply to @catch22: hi catch, mine was a response to skeeter. the guideline management usually applies to a full service brokerage relationship that he seems to maintain as opposed to a discount brokerage like fido or shwab -- where you are basically to trade on your own (which both you and i seem to enjoy).
  • msf
    edited September 2012
    Reply to @fundalarm:

    Fidelity periodically sends out email like:
    Your Account Profile Confirmation contains the most current information we have on file about you and your Fidelity account. To ensure that we have the correct information, please review it carefully by going to Fidelity.com.

    No action is required if the information on your Account Profile Confirmation is correct. If any of the information is missing or incorrect, you can update it at any time by doing one of the following:

    - Visiting Fidelity.com/YourProfile ...
    I spoke with a Fidelity rep years ago when they started doing this, and they said that they take the "suitability" requirements seriously, whatever that means.

    Here's Schwab's Update Account form. Item 3 (Investment Profile) asks for the level of your investment experience, annual income, and liquid net worth. Item 4 asks for your investment objective (which may be a broad indicator of asset allocation) - capital preservation, income, growth, speculation. The form includes a disclaimer that "Schwab has no obligation to determine whether a particular transaction, strategy, or purchase or sale of a security is suitable for you." That doesn't seem to waive a possible obligation to ensure that your portfolio as a whole is suitable for your investment objectives and experience level.
  • Because I long ago decided to be an investor rather than a trader, I voted to stick. My portfolio is tailored to my short and long term goals and performs well. (I am not greedy). I respect people who choose to trade, but long term experience has shown me that you rarely can time the market consistently. Graham-Dodd's book on investing is how Warren Buffet succeeds, and I am happy with that. I read the MFO for insights in to how other people invest and occasionally read a good idea that I store away for the rare situation that I adjust my list.
    Information from all sources can inform and educate, but each person has different goals therefore each of us must be guided by them. Good luck to all!
  • Test.. please disregard.
  • edited September 2012
    Reply to @catch22: Actually, there is such risk based limits at Fidelity. If you try to buy Leveraged ETFs etc. on Fidelity and declared yourself as Moderate risk investor, they will prevent you from buying these. You have to bump up your risk level appropriately to purchase risky investments.
  • Hi Investor,
    Thank you for that point of interest. The "old" paperwork is stashed away in a file here; but I am not going to dig for it, at this time. I recall setting up the original discount brokerage years ago with various check-offs regarding options trading and other choices; aside from the normal trading activities.
    As time allows, I am going to snoop around the Fido site for more info; as the brokerage was opened during pre-home computer era. The documents actually traveled through the postal system.........:):):)
    Thank you, again.
    Catch
  • edited September 2012
    Tally: As of around 10 AM (ET) today, re: two polls put up by Accipter and myself: Recorded "views" 1,040 / comments 50 / votes 33 ..... Hmmm
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