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Doom and gloom - when will it end

johnNjohnN
edited May 2022 in Other Investing
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/doom-and-gloom-when-will-it-end?cmp=em-QYD


If BREAKS resistance sp500 4400 --> key supports not few wks and stay there--> may moon after


Other friend say may have bottom ( at least short terms) sp500 at 3850 last Thurs

We Added more equities last few days very slowly testing water.


China slow open up
Hope everything improves soon

Unclear when Russia slow back away from Ukraine



401k distribution 90% stocks 10% fixed incomes no changes since 2007
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Comments

  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Do we wait for magazine covers to appear on this in these internet times? Or, some pieces like this from major brokerage houses are enough? This piece from Schwab isn't really gloomy (may be cautious?) but has a view that gloomy sentiment may be overdone. There have been gloomy outlooks from some others too.
  • rforno
    IIRC either a JPM or MS person is presently calling for a bottom around SPX 3450. That's pretty gloomy....

    ... of course, such views can change on a whim. JPM said China tech was 'uninvestable' 2 months ago and now says they're very attractive. So DYOR, caveat emptor and all that....
  • hank
    edited May 2022
    Does it really matter?

    Either you have a plan or you don’t. “Student body left! Student body right! “ isn’t an investment strategy.

    The WSJ yesterday had an article making the case that very little $$ has been yanked out of equities this year compared to March ‘20 and during the ‘08 crisis (apparently by individual investors) They claimed that during the ‘08 crisis, about 80% of invested assets were sold / pulled out. I find that number hard to believe. How you even quantify that seems problematic. But, in any case, the two periods they chose to compare were dissimilar enough from the present that I fail to see the relevance of the comparison.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Bottom calling is dangerous business. But there are several pointers for being closer to bottom - terrible sentiment, strange high VIX & low SKEW combo (there are discussions of this in the MFO AAII Sentiment threads of the last 2 weeks & elsewhere), etc. SP500 may be hiding lot of damage but one can look at damage already in Nasdaq Comp (also Nasdaq-100), poorly designed small-cap R2000 (also in better designed small-cap SLY), etc. There is non-confirmation too - equal-weight SP500 RSP outperforming market-cap weighted SP500.

    Another thing to watch for is the 10-yr Treasury yields - they are not responding to Fed talk/action as the fed funds, 3-mo T-Bills, 2-yr T-Note are (and should). Bond MOVE (that is bond-VIX) may have peaked. That means that Powell Fed may be forced to invert the yield-curve and that may not be far off.

    Lots of crosscurrents.
  • rforno
    Exactly. Go with the flow and plan accordingly. Markets will fluctuate!
  • hank
    edited May 2022
    Today’s more like “Boom” than Doom. Could change on a dime… Just saying.:)

    I have no idea what’s causing the broad based rally. Interest rates appear to have ticked up. Financials, which have suffered recently, have turned up. I’ve been watching CFG which was the subject of a glowing Barron’s piece over the weekend. Not interested in owning. Just fun to watch for a while.

    Best read on EM is that they’ll finish the day very strong. A surprise since China appears to be locked down due to Covid. Sad state of affairs there.
  • johnNjohnN
    .
  • BaluBalu
    edited May 2022
    "Other friend say may have bottom ( at least short terms) sp500 at 3750 last Thurs"

    I think you meant 3850. My limit buy orders slightly below that did not trigger.
  • Derf
    Let us see where the week ends ! OR better yet the month ends.
  • CrashCrash
    Derf said:

    Let us see where the week ends ! OR better yet the month ends.

    Indeed. ..... As for today, well! I've never seen such volatility. My Limit Orders certainly did NOT "take" TODAY. Is it a one-day relief-rally? Or rather, a bargain-hunting day, dragging everything else along with the shopping trip, too? Glad I'm in ET. Wish I already owned more of it. Anyhow, stick to the plan. Even when the "plan" must be fluid, given the state of the world today.

  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Come on, you guys... we've all been through this sort of thing a few times. We'll live through it and come out the other side just fine.
  • hank
    edited May 2022
    11% jump in DKNG today. My average cost is $15 p/s. Closed just under $14. Thrills and chills for sure with that one. Sorta like ARKK on steroids.:)
  • johnNjohnN
    edited May 2022
    If RUSSIA - Ukraine peacetalk finalized, sp500 maybe gain few thousand points /uptrends (we may have a heart attack too much excitement)

    BUY in May hip hip hooray
  • hank
    There’s nothing in the news about Ukraine peace talks. Keep dreaming. I still think gloom is the predominate market driver, but with an occasional boom.
  • WABACWABAC
    I don't remember an easy, or painless, solution to inflation.
  • Observant1
    No one can predict how stock markets will perform in the short-term.
    This is especially true now with all the present known unknowns.
    I think stock markets will remain volatile in the coming weeks/months.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Yes- they will be until they're not.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    edited May 2022
    @WABAC- true enough, but we all survived the 1970s. Eventually things sort themselves out. Maybe people have to be in their 80s to remember going through all that stuff. The trick is to not do anything really stupid while all of the smoke and noise is distracting everybody.
  • larryB
    If you are old enough to survived the seventies,,,,, you know that time was on your side. For us seventies survivors we now have more wisdom but much less time. By the time long bonds become attractive I will be buying them for my heirs. Haha.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    For sure.
  • WABACWABAC
    @Old_Joe
    Old_Joe said:

    @WABAC- true enough, but we all survived the 1970s. Eventually things sort themselves out. Maybe people have to be in their 80s to remember going through all that stuff. The trick is to not do anything really stupid while all of the smoke and noise is distracting everybody.

    I'm only 66. But I remember the end of silver coins and silver certificates in the 60's. The end of the gold standard. Nixon's wage and price controls. Whip inflation now. Then what Volker had to do.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    And he did. But it wasn't pretty.

    On the other hand, at the height of the 70s inflationary spiral I found some very decent "Mormon" bonds out of Utah for new electric generating plants at 14%. Did very well on those, until they were called after some three or four years.

    It wasn't until many years later that I realized that those power plants were coal-burning units down at "Four Corners", and major polluters. Nobody thought about that sort of thing in the 70s.

  • carew388carew388
    Yes-I'm sure coal-burning units were considered safer than nuclear plants after Three Mile Island incident(and the eerie and prescient China Syndromerelease earlier.(not entirely snark)
  • AndyJ
    The big kahuna in that area, the Navajo Generating Station outside Page AZ, shut down for good in 2019.
  • royal4
    Ahhh the 70's... loved the late 70's early 80's. Mortgage was 14% BUT we were getting raises every 6-9 months. It's all relative. If bonds get to 10-14% I'm buying as many LONG term CDs as I can. ;^) ;^)
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    "If bonds get to 10-14% I'm buying as many LONG term CDs as I can. "

    You bettah believe...
  • Derf
    I don't think 10 to 14 percent is in the cards at this point. To my thinking if & when it hits 3% I'll be a CD buyer.
  • wxman123
    Derf said:

    I don't think 10 to 14 percent is in the cards at this point. To my

    Start buying, you can now get 3% 5 yr CD's.

  • Derf
    Looking for year or 18 months CD at the 3%. . Thanks @wxman123
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    With yield-curve inversion coming, one may see 3% 1-yr & 18-mo CDs BEFORE 3% 5-yr or 10-yr. The 2-yr T-Note is already at 2.68%, 3-yr T-Note at 2.84% (buy at Treasury Direct at auctions, or anytime at brokerages commission-free).
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202205
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