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Retail Disasters

Best of class retailers are crashing - first WMT, today TGT. Retail ETF XRT is equal-weighted. Watch the damage unfolding as the following chart becomes live after the market open.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=WMT&compare=TGT,XRT&id=p92236688292

Comments

  • Time for another stimulus check !?
  • edited May 18
    Amazon’s chart (AMZN) isn’t quite that dramatic. But if you could separate out AWS it might be.
    I haven’t heard a really convincing explanation in the media. I’m thinking (1) higher labor costs, (2) higher transportation costs due to energy prices.
  • TGT -25% in the premarket. Yeeeesh.....
  • Buy little on the dip lol
  • Hmm. Makes you wonder how soon we won't be seeing all those goofy "Great Resignation" on line articles...getting really concernced layoffs will be starting enmasse if they haven't already.

  • edited May 18
    hank said:

    Amazon’s chart (AMZN) isn’t quite that dramatic. But if you could separate out AWS it might be.
    I haven’t heard a really convincing explanation in the media. I’m thinking (1) higher labor costs, (2) higher transportation costs due to energy prices.

    IIRC Amazon uses AWS to offset perpetual losses on the retail side, but I could be misinformed. By not breaking out numbers, it makes it easier to conceal threats/losses in other business lines such as retail, or increased prices for Prime content, etc, etc. And if that's not enough for their PR/IR outreach teams, they can always jack up Prime subscriptions again.
  • Stuff really does cost a lot these days. I have needed some Tacoma cedar siding repair on my house for more than a year. Last summer the wood was unavailable anywhere; this year my contractor said I wouldn’t believe what a board foot of the wood costs now. I think it’s one of those products that was not produced at all during the worst of the Covid shutdown. While lumber prices in general are said to have declined, this specialty product is as dear as it’s ever been. I said to do the work on time and materials because I have no choice. Were we selling the house, a home inspector would go nuts looking for more damage that I’d either have to fix or I’d have to lower the price. One anecdote does not explain rampant inflation, but it’s real to me.
  • Kind of OT but I'm preparing to redo 2 bathrooms. For me, the materials cost is nothing compared to the price of labor these days .. I'm not using anything overly premium or exotic. Was this project not in response to a leak, I'd be putting it off for a few more years - I'm already about 25K over what I envisioned paying for, even in a VHCOL area.
  • @rforno : Did the leak just show up recently or was the repair put off ? That would make the redo jump in price !
    I hope you have a third BR to use during redo.
    X plumber, Derf
  • Derf said:

    Time for another stimulus check !?

    No. They just need to reprogram the Open Mouth Committee to sound more upbeat.

    Re retail today - This is the initial decent into the “soft landing.”

  • Derf said:

    @rforno : Did the leak just show up recently or was the repair put off ? That would make the redo jump in price !
    I hope you have a third BR to use during redo.
    X plumber, Derf

    Nah. It's a leak in the inner workings of a 40 year old drop-in tub in the MBR - it's not an 'emergency' b/c the drip is going down the drain, thankfully. Due to how my condo was built, there's no cutoff just for the tub, so if I kill water to the tub, I lose use of the entire bathroom. I discovered that it'll be cheaper to replace the whole tub than try to find the part for it or pay the plumber to install a cutoff ... and if I'm paying money just to rip out the tub and cut thru marble to do it, why not go ahead and redo the whole 80s-looking bathroom? And if I'm doing one, while they're here, why not do the hall bathroom, too?
  • @hank : My comment was in jest. Soft Landing, sometimes end with a thud !
  • edited May 18
    Perfect storms

    Credit issues
    Housing issues
    Prob high unemployment next yr
    Govt may not be able to do much
  • Not encouraging data since US economy is heavily driven by consumers. Inflation again is making everything more expensive for consumers.
  • edited May 18
    BenWP said:

    Stuff really does cost a lot these days. I have needed some Tacoma cedar siding repair on my house for more than a year. Last summer the wood was unavailable anywhere; this year my contractor said I wouldn’t believe what a board foot of the wood costs now.

    @BenWP, if that's western red-cedar, the high volume older trees are about gone in the U.S., and what we get mainly is from B.C., where the supply in the forest is headed down pretty rapidly too. It makes great lumber for so many uses, but we're running low -- a sad state of affairs, IMHO.
  • johnN said:

    Perfect storms

    Credit issues
    Housing issues
    Assist unemployment
    Govt may not be able to do much

    Completely agree with this! hold on folks
  • Yes, lumber is going thru the roof, has been for several years.
    In the mean time our forests are being consumed by forest fires.
    We need to get back to logging, letting ranchers run cattle in forests, create fire breaks and clear cuts to improve live feed.
    I expect my Home Owners Insurance will go up again 15 to 20% because of the cost of replacement.


  • A tree fell and poked holes in my son's roof. While he is insured, he is having great difficulty getting the required three roofing companies to come out and provide estimates before repair work can begin.
  • I had a new metal roof put on last year for about $20K. USAA raised my replacement value about 30K and yes, the premimum zooooomed. I thought a metal roof should have lowered my cost due to better fire protection.
  • Rost rossstores also -20% poor earnings
  • "While he is insured, he is having great difficulty..."

    "the premimum zooooomed. I thought a metal roof should have lowered my cost due to better fire protection. "

    Yeah- never give a sucker an even break... from my life experiences I feel that all insurance companies are vicious bastards.
  • I had a new metal roof put on last year for about $20K. USAA raised my replacement value about 30K and yes, the premimum zooooomed. I thought a metal roof should have lowered my cost due to better fire protection.
    Fire hazard has expand west of the Rockies in recent years. Many residential houses in Pacific Northwest are now built with metal roofs and concrete siding (Hardie board). Building codes for new construction is changing and so does the construction cost. Not surprise that insurance premium keeps on rising regardless what you have done to the property to migrate the risk.
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