I don’t have an opinion on this. Some on the board think highly of Krugman ... so thought I’d link it. “It’s going to be a year of bottlenecks and blips” - NYT
Speaking of bottlenecks - Severe shortage of skilled / semi-skilled workers here. A mega-sized Walmart had only 1 cashier in the entire store last week. Called today about getting a bicycle ready for spring riding #@%**$. You need a reservation
to take one in. Next opening May 18 ...
Where are the Wright Brothers when you need them?
Here you’re required to wear a mask in gyms. Try running laps around an indoor track (I did the other day) with a mask in place. Deep breathing sucks the mask against your face and you damn near suffocate,
Far as the bike goes, it demands attention, but with temps still in the 30s up here, I can wait a few more weeks.
@Crash : Glad to hear you got out for a nice meal. Uncomplicated . nice motto to live by.
To me, the present incredible jumps in the cost of wood products essential to construction and home maintenance is especially unsettling, and a portent of more to come.
As Danielle Park (Toronto) often reminds her readers and listeners: Canada's main thing is to sell "rocks and trees" to the rest of the world. Still highly dependent upon natural resources to trade with the rest of planet Earth. Something to think about, but maybe not to chew on. Yux.
First for brother Hank. Check around about masks. I see baseball players wearing them in the field, so there must be a way or type.
Inflation. It's been interesting to watch the supply disruptions due to Covid but also the changes in demand. Lumber is impacted by both as are many other products and services. I anticipate that official inflation will be measurably higher going forward but the street inflation is going to hurt. Any of you good people been buying groceries over the past couple of weeks? For somethings, you can almost see the price changes. I buy chicken breasts at GFS and the bag went from 15.99 to 21.99 in the past 6 months.
Shadow stats has real inflation running either 4 or 8 over the official CPI. You can like him or not, but we're all experiencing a much higher rate of inflation than the gov't suggests.
Peeps getting their shots . . . or not. feh. 1. As more and more people are vaccinated without problems, many of the hesitant will get their shots. 2. More and more companies are starting to insist and some are offering incentives. 3. Final approval for the mRNA vaccines will give legal basis to a LOT of mandates. The military has about 33% that are hesitating. Er, only because it's an EUA. When it is approved, it's roll up your sleeves boys and girls. All of this should get us to 75-80%. Of the 20% antivax true believers, it's too bad but cripes, Darwin will take care of them. I believe the word is
schadenfreude, suggests rono's 'bad wolf' side, as he giggles at Palin and Nugent.
Employment and job vacancies and help wanted signs everywhere. Of course there are those that blame it on unemployment $, make working unattractive. Bad wolf suggests that if they were paid a living wage . . . That said, I'm curious about how many women (and men) between the ages of 18 and 40 are making more money with their onlyfans account than they would ever make at a restaurant or bar or any other job that pays under $20 an hour. Asking for a friend.
All y'all stay safe and take care,
and so it goes,
peace and keep wearing the damn mask,
Core gives a more accurate view of mid- and longer-term inflation.PK makes the point in the article; see the Fred graph he reproduced. The CPI is a better shorter term measure.
Food prices, though, could still have plenty of room to head up. The ag etf DBA is still running in that direction; I assume it's got at least some correlation, with a lag, with grocery prices.
Sorry- in my observation the suggestion that food costs, on average, can increase but then go back down is pure BS.
However, just an anecdote, I remember well several years back when dairy prices fell a lot in a short time and stayed there for a couple of years before rising, slowly, again. The happy shock was seeing the 1/2 gal organic milk we used to buy going from $3.50 to $3.00 from one shopping trip to the next - a 14% drop. Maybe something to do with price supports caused that, dunno.
Let's talk inflation:
The ANNUAL inflation may get to 3-4% in the next a few/several months because it's compared to last year meltdown. In Q4/2021 and on I don't see anything beyond 2.5-3% and for several months consistently.
Remember, monthly CPI is relative to last month. If an item goes up 10% and next month stays the same then next monthly inflation for this item is zero.
Example: Gas at the pump jumped about 20% YTD (similar for 12 months) but is flat for about a month now(link).
We have been borrowing from the future for over 10 years already. In the years ahead it will get slower. The Fed welcome 2% (maybe 2.5%) long term inflation. Add to it big tech replacing jobs and improving processes + global competition, and you get tame inflation.
I was able to read the article. I agree with Krugman, he basically says what I posted above.
That's higher than it's been in ~ 10 years? I guess it makes sense...
FWIW, I pay no attn to the propoganda and the esteemed columnists in the NYTimes. Right or wrong, I'll think for myself and not what others signal to me how I should think.
Not for me, no thanks.
I assume all indicated data is accurate. Scroll down about 1/3 page for data list.
U.S. inflation beginning 1929 by year with some clickable information points.
As the linked article points out, some think recent changes to the CPI computation tend to understate actual inflation when compared with earlier standards.
Numbers can lie and can also be made to represent whatever you want. IF we factor in the improvements to overall standard of living since the 30s, we might end up with negative inflation numbers. Does anyone want to go back to the time when homes were heated with coal that you shoveled into your furnace by hand? Cars got 10-15 mpg and lacked automatic trannies or AC? AM radio was the latest form of home entertainment?
Above points to how hard it is to measure actual inflation when the things we take as “normal” or “necessary” keep changing. I do remember paying $2500 for an Apple 2e + green screen in the 80s. And $600 for a clunky dot matrix printer to go with it. 1980s technology can be had for much less today - if you can find it. So - is that how we should compute inflation?
The well informed members here have chosen to expand the discussion beyond Krugman’s limited purview. All good ISTM. Some would say that the primary reason for putting their current (safe) dollars at risk in unpredictable - even precarious - markets is to protect their buying power against the ravages of inflation over extended periods.
I hope my earlier remarks are not misunderstood. They represented neither a sounding of the rising inflation alarm siren, nor a call for complacency on the issue. They simply were an attempt to put the inflation numbers @Catch22 cited - going back to the 1930s - into some kind of perspective. As for changes in how CPI gets computed, those have received wide attention over the past several decades and are summarized in my earlier link.
Can you explain why Obama got the Nobel Prize for peace?
- Withdrew US troops and joked about ISIS, enabling the partial takeover of Syria and Iraq by Islamist radicals, with immeasurable consequences such as millions of refugees into Europe.
- Helped remove Gadaffi from Libya, leading to anarchy and radicalization
- Putin annex Crimea