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Anyone care to venture a guess where S&P ends the year ?!

"The price strength exhibited in US equities [in Q1] left the S&P 500 just 3.1% off our 2021 year-end price target with risk to our target now slanted to the upside," BMO writes. "That being said, as we have discussed previously, we believe investors should be prepared for a second half of the year that will likely be weaker in terms of price gains compared to 1H as the reopening and cyclicals trade matures and investors start to digest the implications of an EPS-driven environment. Ultimately, however, we see the S&P 500 ending 2021 at our price target of 4,200."


  • Who the heck knows but I'll play. I see the S&P hitting 4400 at some point during the year. Not sure where it ends up.
  • Many fortune-tellers are predicting a possible pullback sometime later this year after some more gains. But the market never does what the analysts (or anybody else) think it will.

    My darts say S&P at 3800.
  • @MikeW & @JD_co Thanks for throwing your dart & I hope to see more darts air borne '
    Stay Safe, derf

  • Somewhere above 666....
  • rforno said:

    Somewhere above 666....

    Ah, the S&P's low during the 2009 collapse. That's what you were going for there.
  • edited April 2021
    JD_co said:

    rforno said:

    Somewhere above 666....

    Ah, the S&P's low during the 2009 collapse. That's what you were going for there.
    Why yes, yes I was. Absolutely. Nothing else. :)
  • The stock market can't just go up forever. Per the Motley Fool's "A Stock Market Crash May Be Imminent" article (bold added by me).....

    "Dating back 150 years, there have only been five instances where the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has surpassed and sustained 30. The Shiller P/E ratio measures average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years and is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE. On April 6, the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was nearly 36.7, which is well over double its historic average of 16.8.

    Furthermore, in the previous four instances where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E hit 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to as much as 89% of its value. Although we're unlikely to see Great Depression-like losses of 89% ever again, at least a 20% decline has been the recipe when valuations get extended."
  • har --- read the MFO discussions --- sober and well-reasoned warnings abound for month after month after month after month.

    Studz must be shaking his head even more than the rest of us.

    MFool articles about this, well, that hed of theirs must be what is called a standing hed.

    Shiller p/e has become less meaningful, evidently, I mean forget its history, and is at 37 this weekend, and while I doubt it will stick at 40 for years, the dip strength and buying penchant are just consistently strong. SP500 is now strongly over 4100. Trivial for it to hit a hundred higher per Derf's BMO cite above, eventually, and not far off.

    I think the year will end, if we are all really lucky, with it @ 3800. And many of us buying or having bought prior. And Shiller still really, really high.
  • Anybody who is in the prediction business must be wrong.
    Here are a list of
    some famous "experts" Bogle, GMO, Arnott, Gundlach, Shiller
    Others, PE, PE10=CAPE, inverted yield, overvalue, the sky is falling every other week.

    KISS for most: know your goals and risk tolerance, select asset allocation accordingly, make minimal changes, stay the course, stay invested. Pretty boring stuff.
    Disclaimer: I don't practice the above.
  • edited April 2021
    If you change the aspect ratio of the Shiller cape, it may change how we think, to some extent (using family history site as graph placeholder).

    Tech bubble is quite clear, otherwise smoothish growth w 08-09 dip and recent sick runup, but how odd really, given tina / cheap money? 1980ff.
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