"The price strength exhibited in US equities [in Q1] left the S&P 500 just 3.1% off our 2021 year-end price target with risk to our target now slanted to the upside," BMO writes. "That being said, as we have discussed previously, we believe investors should be prepared for a second half of the year that will likely be weaker in terms of price gains compared to 1H as the reopening and cyclicals trade matures and investors start to digest the implications of an EPS-driven environment. Ultimately, however, we see the S&P 500 ending 2021 at our price target of 4,200."
Comments
My darts say S&P at 3800.
Stay Safe, derf
Somewhere above 666....
"Dating back 150 years, there have only been five instances where the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has surpassed and sustained 30. The Shiller P/E ratio measures average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years and is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE. On April 6, the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was nearly 36.7, which is well over double its historic average of 16.8.
Furthermore, in the previous four instances where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E hit 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to as much as 89% of its value. Although we're unlikely to see Great Depression-like losses of 89% ever again, at least a 20% decline has been the recipe when valuations get extended."
Studz must be shaking his head even more than the rest of us.
MFool articles about this, well, that hed of theirs must be what is called a standing hed.
Shiller p/e has become less meaningful, evidently, I mean forget its history, and is at 37 this weekend, and while I doubt it will stick at 40 for years, the dip strength and buying penchant are just consistently strong. SP500 is now strongly over 4100. Trivial for it to hit a hundred higher per Derf's BMO cite above, eventually, and not far off.
I think the year will end, if we are all really lucky, with it @ 3800. And many of us buying or having bought prior. And Shiller still really, really high.
Here are a list of
some famous "experts" Bogle, GMO, Arnott, Gundlach, Shiller
Others, PE, PE10=CAPE, inverted yield, overvalue, the sky is falling every other week.
KISS for most: know your goals and risk tolerance, select asset allocation accordingly, make minimal changes, stay the course, stay invested. Pretty boring stuff.
Disclaimer: I don't practice the above.
Tech bubble is quite clear, otherwise smoothish growth w 08-09 dip and recent sick runup, but how odd really, given tina / cheap money? 1980ff.
https://davidrmoran.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/shiller_pe_asprat.png?w=1024