It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
https://usfunds.com/investor-library/investor-alertA little over a hundred years ago, the United States emerged from the double whammy of a world war and deadly pandemic. Eager to get back to “normal” life, Americans went on a decade-long spending splurge, buying cars and radios and stocks.
Although we all know how it ended, the Roaring Twenties was largely a product of pent-up demand.
This summer, I believe we could see the start of a similar demand-driven economic boom as millions of Americans, newly vaccinated and $1,400 richer, make up for lost time by booking flights and vacations, going on cruises, visiting family out of state and more.
As I shared with you earlier this month, close to $18 trillion sit in Americans’ savings accounts right now—a record amount. Much of this cash is just waiting to be unleased into the U.S. economy.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla
Comments
Not mentioned in the excerpt is how unfair the pandemic has been to lower income Americans who weren’t able to work from home and many of whom don’t participate in the stock market. Yet, they have endured the disease and suffering to a greater extent than the better-off along with being hit with the rising prices for food and essentials.
What they say about pent-up demand is true. Took just 6 days after the 2nd Pfizer injection to book a flight to a warmer climate. Hear similar stories from others - some booking trips on faith before even being vaccinated. Airfares are likely to go to the sky. I have several big home maintenance jobs due - some deferred earlier out of concerns about having workers inside during worst of the pandemic. Very concerned about a looming labor shortage and higher labor / materials costs.
Your excerpt implies we might be in for a 10-year romp akin to the 20s. Of course, there are some differences. My Accord Hybrid gets much better mileage than did Gatsby’s Rolls Royce. Also, in his day gas was something like 20 cents a gallon. 10 more years of rising stock prices? A bit too much to expect - unless a “bubble inside of bubble” develops. Could happen.
Basically gasoline cost the same then as it does now.
@Sven - Thanks for the thoughts. Yes, folks need to take their own circumstances into consideration. Also the destination and activities. FWIW - The Pres is talking about having everybody that wants a vaccine being able to get one by May 1, and also achieving a certain level of “normalcy” by July 4.
I like the thread because it points out to me that spending wasn’t really lost - just deferred until later. Some folks will do just fine. But many small businesses won’t recover.
Stay safe
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771435
Did you read any of the responses to that article? For instance, this one: On our last trip to Europe the guy behind me was coughing and hacking for 5000 miles. There was "relatively" enough airflow to do me in. Took me one day to come down with his virus and three weeks to recover. Don't even talk to me about the wonderful ventilation systems on planes.
V sorry to hear of your experience. When was that?
Many articles have detailed how ventilation and especially filtration are studied and greatly improved under covid.
Here is perhaps inconclusive sleuthing:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210228/New-evidence-of-SARS-CoV-2-spreading-on-planes.aspx
Canada data have been more public:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2021/01/15/covid-flight-information-airline-passengers-exposed-coronavirus/3905053001/
Was just responding to Sven anecdote.
OJ
https://google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/03/world/covid19-coronavirus.amp.html