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This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties

US Global Investor - Investor Weekly:
A little over a hundred years ago, the United States emerged from the double whammy of a world war and deadly pandemic. Eager to get back to “normal” life, Americans went on a decade-long spending splurge, buying cars and radios and stocks.

Although we all know how it ended, the Roaring Twenties was largely a product of pent-up demand.

This summer, I believe we could see the start of a similar demand-driven economic boom as millions of Americans, newly vaccinated and $1,400 richer, make up for lost time by booking flights and vacations, going on cruises, visiting family out of state and more.

As I shared with you earlier this month, close to $18 trillion sit in Americans’ savings accounts right now—a record amount. Much of this cash is just waiting to be unleased into the U.S. economy.


  • edited March 2021
    Good post @bee.

    Not mentioned in the excerpt is how unfair the pandemic has been to lower income Americans who weren’t able to work from home and many of whom don’t participate in the stock market. Yet, they have endured the disease and suffering to a greater extent than the better-off along with being hit with the rising prices for food and essentials.

    What they say about pent-up demand is true. Took just 6 days after the 2nd Pfizer injection to book a flight to a warmer climate. Hear similar stories from others - some booking trips on faith before even being vaccinated. Airfares are likely to go to the sky. I have several big home maintenance jobs due - some deferred earlier out of concerns about having workers inside during worst of the pandemic. Very concerned about a looming labor shortage and higher labor / materials costs.

    Your excerpt implies we might be in for a 10-year romp akin to the 20s. Of course, there are some differences. My Accord Hybrid gets much better mileage than did Gatsby’s Rolls Royce. Also, in his day gas was something like 20 cents a gallon. 10 more years of rising stock prices? A bit too much to expect - unless a “bubble inside of bubble” develops. Could happen.

  • Until 70-80% of the population is vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity, there are still infection risk. For our family it will be some time next year and not this year when we will return to our normal travel.
  • 20 cents a gallon in 1921 is the equivalent of $2.94 today (CPI).

    Basically gasoline cost the same then as it does now.
  • :) Thanks @Simon for the cost conversion ...

    @Sven - Thanks for the thoughts. Yes, folks need to take their own circumstances into consideration. Also the destination and activities. FWIW - The Pres is talking about having everybody that wants a vaccine being able to get one by May 1, and also achieving a certain level of “normalcy” by July 4.

    I like the thread because it points out to me that spending wasn’t really lost - just deferred until later. Some folks will do just fine. But many small businesses won’t recover.
  • Simon said:

    20 cents a gallon in 1921 is the equivalent of $2.94 today (CPI).

    Basically gasoline cost the same then as it does now.

    yup, and if you shopped around a gallon of gas stayed at that level (and lower than that with inflation) for the next 4-5 decades.
  • @hank, please be careful in our travel, especially by air. One of our neighbor caught COVID in his travel to the east coast. Even though he recovered from the ICU, his lung capacity has greatly reduced similar to the long haulers. Last year our family took many day trips in our car to outdoor locations and order take out meals. Eventually we feel confident to stay in higher end hotels. Since we have not been vaccinated yet, we have not visit any museums or other indoor attraction in the last 12 months. In the meantime we are doing many remodeling projects.

    Stay safe
  • edited March 2021
    "There is relatively little airflow forward and backward between rows, making it less likely to spread respiratory particles between rows."

    Did you read any of the responses to that article? For instance, this one:
    "As a ventilation engineer with 40+ years experience in exposure control (including biohazard labs) I find the assertion that general ventilation on an aircraft - as opposed to local exhaust - will effectively control close quarter exposure to "droplets" (or, more technically correct, an aerosol from coughing, sneezing or talking) is questionable."
    On our last trip to Europe the guy behind me was coughing and hacking for 5000 miles. There was "relatively" enough airflow to do me in. Took me one day to come down with his virus and three weeks to recover. Don't even talk to me about the wonderful ventilation systems on planes.
  • It's likely. We just booked a trip to Florida next month and the planes are packed, and expensive.
  • OJ, yes, I did, and should have pointed to them as well; assumed any reader would see.

    V sorry to hear of your experience. When was that?
    Many articles have detailed how ventilation and especially filtration are studied and greatly improved under covid.

    Here is perhaps inconclusive sleuthing:

    Canada data have been more public:

    Was just responding to Sven anecdote.
  • @davidmoran- about 3 or 4 years ago- a long river cruise on a small boat through France and then a week or so over on the Italian Ligurian coast. Wonderful trip, for sure. Fortunately the virus was not really debilitating- just enough to knock me off my pace for a couple of weeks, and the trip on the rivers was pretty restful and easygoing physically.

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