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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Rob Arnott on Value Investing Comeback of 2021...Or Not

Join Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott and I on a wide-ranging tour of the current state of markets. We make stops at the Tesla bubble, the growth stock frenzy, the bottom for value stocks, a look at small caps and interest rates and lots more.


Comments

  • Another Value Perspective:
    Unravelling value's decade-long underperformance (and imminent resurgence)
    unravelling-values-decade-long
  • edited December 2020
    Arnott's star in the finp0rn pundocracy faded several years ago, in my view. But Josh Brown is still a rock star worth listening to.

  • +1 rforno And there's much cheaper and easier ways to invest in value stocks, like VTV for example
  • Arnott’s forecasts are like a broken clock. Only, instead of being right twice a day, he’s right about once or twice a decade.
  • edited December 2020
    Arnott isn't the only one who was wrong for years

    1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.

    2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.

    3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021

    4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.

    5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.

    6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.

    7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.

    8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.

    9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up

    The truth is the 24/7 media has to write about something for someone to click and read and how they get paid.

    The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong

    If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions area a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down

    BTW, I always do something big when I see something crucial happening NOW but I don't recommend it to anybody. I don't mind being wrong because I invest to meet my specific goals.

    Lastly, why Arnott still in business? most of us lose their jobs after just several mistakes so why people who manage money don't.
  • 9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
    The market is up NOT due to Trump, but Pfizer, Moderna, AstaZeneca and other COVID-19 vaccines will be available and ending of the pandemic. Only Moderna took government fund for their development while Pfizer never took a penny.
  • elected, 16, not reelected
  • elected, 16, not reelected

    Correct, 4 years ago.

  • bee said:

    Another Value Perspective:
    Unravelling value's decade-long underperformance (and imminent resurgence)
    unravelling-values-decade-long

    Thank you, well written and insightful read.

  • While it’s true that anyone who has been cautious at anytime since Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech in 1995 has missed out on some share of their potential returns - that doesn’t mean that being cautious and prudent about possible losses is necessarily wrongheaded. Everyone needs to evaluate and recognize their need, ability & willingness to take risk. Or to put it another way, no one should take more risk than they need to.
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