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nibbling away

Quick update. I noted that I was trying to buy additional shares of BIAWX yesterday but didn't because (1) $50 transaction fee and (2) four-hour hold time to talk with TD Ameritrade. Got through this morning, after a 40 minute hold. Two notes. First, they have a callback queue but disabled it because so many people were leaving stacks of callback requests that the system couldn't keep them straight. Second, they were very agreeable about waiving the transaction fee.

That purchase complements yesterday's tiny buys in each of my other TD funds: FPACX, MACSX, MAINX, RPHYX, GPROX.

No idea of where "the bottom" is (Leuthold estimates the market is 4% overvalued though bears do blow through "fair value"), but I figured my managers are good and could use the money. In an vaguely parallel vein, I also made contributions to my local food bank (their shelves are getting bare, too), One Tree Planted and a local small business initiative to provide coffee for first responders and medical personnel. That's 'cause Tom Hanks told me to be a helper!

David
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Comments

  • Hi David. I'n not familiar with TD Ameritrade.
    Question: You couldn't perform this transaction online?
    Thank you.
  • edited March 2020
    Hi, catch.

    I'm at TD because they bought Scottrade, which I used because they had a convenient local office (and wasn't Schwab).

    BIAWX has a transaction fee at TD, which the online execution would have triggered. I decided to call and request a waiver because (a) they should be anxious to be really helpful about now and (b) their soon-to-be robot overlords at Schwab don't charge the TF.

    David
  • Visited my 91 year old father-in-law who was moved to a hospice care facility today. That was difficult.

    Through the market volatility the past couple weeks we have been adding to our positions in PRWCX and AKREX.
  • edited March 2020
    Old_Skeet continues to buy in the growth & income area of my portfolio. With this I reduced the cash area by about 1% and raised G&I by 1%. I've decided to temporairly move my asset allocation to 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity in hopes of playing the rebound (in steps) as it comes. In following the money flow feed which is one of the barometer's data feeds it seems money is starting to retrun as the MFI went from 26 to 32 today.
  • edited March 2020
    Thx...bought / open positions in Bac at opening and also added BAC preferred stocks

  • If we’ve entered a bear market, they tend to be drawn out miserable affairs, where every time you think it can’t go lower, it goes lower.
  • edited March 2020
    Lawlar said:

    If we’ve entered a bear market, they tend to be drawn out miserable affairs, where every time you think it can’t go lower, it goes lower.

    Maybe @Simon will check-in and let us know when the Great Bull Market of the next several decades he’s long been forecasting will ignite / lift-off again.

    Current Market Direction:



  • I'm curious where all these various estimates of a bottom come from. We're still above 2016 levels in the market, and does anyone think that the current economic outlook is rosier than in 2016? (That's not a rhetorical question. Is there a case for that, that the outlook for corporate earnings is better now than in 2016?)
  • expatsp said:

    Is there a case for that, that the outlook for corporate earnings is better now than in 2016?)

    You could try digging around on this government data site.

    Or, here's one news account that makes me think the answer to your question is no.
    Corporate profits rose ever so slightly in the fourth quarter of last year after three consecutive drops in the first part of 2019. Heading into 2020, analysts were optimistic that earnings would continue to rebound.
    Then the coronavirus outbreak happened. And now, all bets are off.
    For sure corporations won't be buying back their shares this year with cheap borrowed money to jack up the price for executive compensation packages.
  • @WABAC - SBUX begs to differ on the not buying back their stock part. I grant that it might not be with cheap borrowed money but who knows. And really, could there be a better time if a company is looking to juice its earnings/share figure?
  • edited March 2020
    expatsp said:

    “We're still above 2016 levels in the market ...”

    On the last trading day of 2016, the Dow closed at 19,762 .

    Currently, the Dow sits at 19,185 .

    Remains to be seen if the Dow finishes the day still below 2016 level. Always possible they’ll shut this market down early.
  • Mark said:

    @WABAC - SBUX begs to differ on the not buying back their stock part. I grant that it might not be with cheap borrowed money but who knows. And really, could there be a better time if a company is looking to juice its earnings/share figure?

    Depends on their balance sheets. Maybe SBUX is in good shape. M* didn't have it's debt/equity ratio listed when I looked just now. Buffet is certainly in a position to buy back his shares with cash.


  • The Leuthold folks track a bunch of metrics. Some target the distance to "normal" and others target the distance to "fair value."

    The fair value note released this week looked at price/cash flow, price to book, dividend yield and three flavors of P/E. The implied drop to reach the median level maintained over the past 70 years ranged from -1 to -22%, depending on the metric.

    Bear markets end up with valuations somewhere around the bottom quartile of the range. So ROE-based P/E is normal at 18.3 and low at 15.1. At the beginning of this week, the market's ROE-based P/E was 18.35 which might translate to "not wildly overvalued but way back the trough in a bear."

    For what that's worth, David

  • hi David. I do not understand "but way back the trough in a bear." I understand that there is still room for bad news -- or something. Just never heard it expressed that way.

    What else can be way back the trough? Is this a common phrase in some part of the country?
  • hank said:

    Lawlar said:

    If we’ve entered a bear market, they tend to be drawn out miserable affairs, where every time you think it can’t go lower, it goes lower.

    Maybe @Simon will check-in and let us know when the Great Bull Market of the next several decades he’s long been forecasting will ignite / lift-off again.

    Current Market Direction:



    hank said:

    Lawlar said:

    If we’ve entered a bear market, they tend to be drawn out miserable affairs, where every time you think it can’t go lower, it goes lower.

    Maybe @Simon will check-in and let us know when the Great Bull Market of the next several decades he’s long been forecasting will ignite / lift-off again.

    Current Market Direction:



    That's a cheap taunt. You should be ashamed of your arrogance.

    No-one could have forecasted this catastrophe. No, not even me.

    It's sanctimonious people like you who destroy this discussion forum. Your sarcastic comments cause people to leave for good, which is just what I am doing now. I'll be joining dtconroe on Morningstar for some civilized discussion.

    Eventually, this forum will collapse as you all drop dead one by one because there will be no new members to take your places.

    Goodbye.

  • edited March 2020
    "No-one could have forecasted (sic) this catastrophe. No, not even me."

    @Simon: Perhaps not. But those of us who have been around awhile and paid attention were well aware that it was just a matter of time until something came along to cause this. And you'll please note the lack of commentary regarding "surprise".

    Good riddance to your know-it-all arrogance. No, you won't be missed. Not at all.

  • No-one could have forecasted this catastrophe. No, not even me.
    Must be his first rodeo.
  • edited March 2020
    Come on Simon. You make comments like,
    "Stock prices are going much higher - higher than you can ever imagine."
    and
    " the bull market will last another 15 years",
    those aren't arrogant statements? By the way, ironically you made these comments close to the top of the market, Feb.15th.

    I'd like to see you stick around, but if someone points out statements you made that were so misleading at best, just say,
    "man I was wrong".
  • @MikeM- it takes a man to say something like that.
  • Hi, WABAC.

    Simply typo. Or braino. "way from the trough in a bear."

    The key is that bear markets tend to blow past fair value on the downside. The trough, or low point, of the market tends to be when stocks are selling at a substantial discount to their fair value. so, I was just trying to say we are near fair value but nowhere near the substantial discount that Leuthold uses in their metrics.

    Hope that helps, David
  • Hi, WABAC.

    Simply typo. Or braino. "way from the trough in a bear."

    The key is that bear markets tend to blow past fair value on the downside. The trough, or low point, of the market tends to be when stocks are selling at a substantial discount to their fair value. so, I was just trying to say we are near fair value but nowhere near the substantial discount that Leuthold uses in their metrics.

    Hope that helps, David

    Yes it does. Thank you. I have an amateur interest in local phrases.

    Been a while since we really oversold to the underside though. Late 70's, or early 80's are what real capitulation looks like to me.

    Given the Fed support since the dot.com bust, I don't think we really know what fair value is.

    Your mileage may vary, of course.
  • @WABAC; :Given the Fed support since the dot.com bust, I don't think we really know what fair value is.
    +!
    Derf
  • Agreed: "Given the Fed support since the dot.com bust, I don't think we really know what fair value is."
  • So how's the Great Bear Market for you guys who sold at the bottom? How's it all going?

    I told you 6 months ago we were not in a bear market by any metric or measure. But none of you listened and your kneejerk reaction was to sell quality assets for no reason. Some supposedly experienced investors here were in complete denial and expressed shock at my comments that this ongoing bull will last until the 2030s.

    Meanwhile my mutual fund retirement portfolio is up over 65% since January 1st. That's definitely a bull market....isn't it?

    You old-timers really need to be more humble, consider the opinions of others, and learn from your mistakes.

  • Simon said:

    So how's the Great Bear Market for you guys who sold at the bottom? How's it all going?

    I told you 6 months ago we were not in a bear market by any metric or measure. But none of you listened and your kneejerk reaction was to sell quality assets for no reason. Some supposedly experienced investors here were in complete denial and expressed shock at my comments that this ongoing bull will last until the 2030s.

    Meanwhile my mutual fund retirement portfolio is up over 65% since January 1st. That's definitely a bull market....isn't it?

    You old-timers really need to be more humble, consider the opinions of others, and learn from your mistakes.

    I haven't sold anything since rebalancing in January. That put me in a position to buy in March.

    Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if we were all humble, listened to others, and learned from our mistakes?

    Now. Where do you think the market would be if The Fed had not injected trillions of dollars into it?

    What you call a bull market looks like a speed freak to me. Now is the time to think about selling.
  • @Simon @WABAC I'm not COMPLETELY in bonds (for protection) only because of the Fed stimulus. It does matter just what is driving markets, whether up or down. Central Banks have come to the rescue--- AGAIN. @rono likes to say: "This will not end well." I agree. In the meantime, this is still the only game in town. The next item that I'm required by law to do is to begin taking RMDs at age 72. (Yes, the change, due to covid distress. ) In January, I pulled out a pre-determined chunk at a pre-determined time. Almost all my stuff is in Trad IRAs. I was lucky. We were at or near a Market-top back then. Since then, Mr. Market has been kind--- thanks to The Fed. When the punchbowl gets pulled, I might just move from 57% bonds to 80% bonds. The payouts from my bond funds are tasty, right on schedule, too. I've learned not to boast about portfolio results. I'll just be paying attention. Chugging along. My portf. is comprised of my best fund choices, up to the present. I sleep well.
  • Crash said:

    @Simon @WABAC I'm not COMPLETELY in bonds (for protection) only because of the Fed stimulus. It does matter just what is driving markets, whether up or down. Central Banks have come to the rescue--- AGAIN. @rono likes to say: "This will not end well." I agree. In the meantime, this is still the only game in town. The next item that I'm required by law to do is to begin taking RMDs at age 72. (Yes, the change, due to covid distress. ) In January, I pulled out a pre-determined chunk at a pre-determined time. Almost all my stuff is in Trad IRAs. I was lucky. We were at or near a Market-top back then. Since then, Mr. Market has been kind--- thanks to The Fed. When the punchbowl gets pulled, I might just move from 57% bonds to 80% bonds. The payouts from my bond funds are tasty, right on schedule, too. I've learned not to boast about portfolio results. I'll just be paying attention. Chugging along. My portf. is comprised of my best fund choices, up to the present. I sleep well.

    Anyone at, or close to RMD's is in a different situation than Simon, our young accumulator.

    I had re-balanced the IRA last December - January so that I was close to 60-40 stocks/bonds, not counting cash. I'm back to 70-30 on the Biden rally and purchases made in March. And I think I'll let it ride. I still have a little nubbin of cash if there is another serious downdraft.

    Bernard Baruch is supposed to have said that he made all his money selling too soon. Disciplined selling is one sure way to have cash on hand for those buying opportunities.

    I sort of regret selling NASDX to put into really boring stuff. But that's the sort of calculus to make with retirement funds if you're going to need them sooner than later.
  • Simon would you care to share what funds you have that are up 65% ytd ?!

    Check out this link for top 20 fund performance.

    https://www.financial-planning.com/slideshow/best-mutual-funds-and-etfs-ranked-by-ytd-returns
    Have a nice day, Derf
  • edited August 2020
    Hi @Derf my top year-to-date performers, with better than a 20% return, through 8/28 are SPECX +33.16% ... AOFAX +29.82 ... FISCX +27.24 ... AGTHX +22.86 ... and, CTFAX +22.25%. Overall (year to date) I'm up about 4.3% with a portfolio yield of about 3.3%. So, I am now currently north of my yield.
  • @Old_Skeet: Yahoo shows (SPECX) around 12% ytd. So I'm thinking you added a sizable amount to this fund during the down turn to come up with +33 %
    As for myself ytd I'm at 0-1 %. With Aug. statement coming up , that % should move up.
    Stay Safe, Derf
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