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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor-who-predicted-the-start-of-the-2009-bull-market-were-not-in-the-clear-yet-104234346.htmlLegendary investor Mark Mobius.....was asked Monday if the recent 20% rally off the bottom of the quickest bear market in history signaled an all-clear for investors...Mobius cautioned investors....“I think it's a little early to predict that because given the lockdown that we have seen globally in so many countries around the world, the impact of this lockdown on businesses, it's not going to be seen immediately..... I believe that once the numbers start coming in, people will be somewhat disappointed.”
...historical bear markets on a global scale have averaged a larger 30% to 50% drawdown spread out over the span of roughly two years. “The most expensive words in the world are ‘This time is different.’ I don't think this time it's different,” he said. “I think we’re probably maybe going to do a double bottom, jumping down again and pushing up again.”
“The recovery may take longer than people expect,” he predicted, barring any absence of a New Deal-like work program. “It's going to be a real challenge to get these people back to work.
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Comments
The reality is almost impossible to pick bottom...they maybe ><50% right at the time...Maybe you maybe more right than them
Think best stick w your investing plans, have a large stomach for preparation for worst outcomes if you consider getting very aggresive portfolio (high risks high rewards)
Lastly get 24 packs of heneiken beer, large rolaid bottles. Prepare for continue shutdown for two -four wks. Prepare to stand in lines / wear your masks at grocery stores..most importantly continue to wash your hands.
Also Be thankful of what you have, appreciate what others do for you, and glad to have as another day 6 feet above.
[IMHO]
Thankyou for the article
Keep some reserves
That said, Mobius did concede the fact that the drawdown has brought on what he sees as attractive opportunities in some emerging markets like China, India and Brazil. For an investor looking to diversify, the noted emerging markets guru recommended a defensive strategy of allocating at least 10% of a portfolio to gold and 30% to 40% in emerging markets while saving a large cash cushion should the market take another leg lower.
“The reason why I think it's a good idea to keep reserves in cash [is] because I don’t think it’s over,” he said. “If you've got millions of unemployment claims, that means a lot of people will not be returning to the same jobs that they were at before.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-revisit-their-coronavirus-crash-low-and-heres-when-to-expect-it-2020-04-09
All of that said, I think there is a case to be made for more downside once the unemployment numbers come in, GDP and the earnings numbers for the first and second quarter come in. Unemployment, GDP and earnings have been fundamental drivers of stock performance in the past one could make a strong case persist today. But I think predictions of double bottoms or rapid recoveries are dangerous, albeit interesting to contemplate.
The wild card which must also be analyzed is the virus itself, and it is wild because it is largely unprecedented in market history. I don't think the Spanish Flu compares because the times and market were very different then. These new causes must also be analyzed to make predictions and they are perhaps the hardest to understand. I hate to say this because it's depressing but I think probably the most important stats for predicting where the market will go right now are infection rates and death counts, not previous market bottoms or the Vix. And that's for short-term market moves. For long term market moves, I would be analyzing and thinking hard about how such pandemics might change society overall--what industries and economies benefit and what are hurt by it? Exporter nations for instance may struggle. What does this mean for global trade?