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Old_Joe said:Yes. There's room for plenty of upside, but this one's going to be very unstable until we really get a decent fix on COVID and it's aftermath. Absolutely great opportunity for younger investors.
Yes. There's room for plenty of upside, but this one's going to be very unstable until we really get a decent fix on COVID and it's aftermath. Absolutely great opportunity for younger investors.
Old_Joe said:@PopTart- I knew that you'd been paying attention all these years. Good job!
@PopTart- I knew that you'd been paying attention all these years. Good job!
Derf said:@hank;you said," I don’t compute my returns daily or report them publicly. End of this conversation, Derf
@hank;you said," I don’t compute my returns daily or report them publicly. End of this conversation, Derf
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One of my friend met chief of infectious disease physician [50+ plus experiences] of Large Major Hospital in Austin Tx states things maybe settling in 4-6 wks/slow down...he also says he has see anything like this before but it will pass. Less flu/cold and SARS and hopefully cousins of SARS Covid19 at mid april/warmer weather, less incident of transmissions. That is what we are hoping for. Will it last one year, he does not think so. Will it last few months? Maybe.
We are still keeping our 80/20 in our 401k and retirement portfolio, DCA with continuous bimonthly distributions but probably wont add more monies for now.
Plus we have to pay uncle Sam 2019 tax soon [april now july 15 tax deadlines]
Maybe we are hovering near the bottom, but this is what some folks say last wk. Maybe new bottom today
well at least the USA death rates hovering 1.4% but probably will be much lower next wk once have more data and less panic. 85s-90s% of infectious personnel show very little nor no symptoms, only old and sick patients have issues.
China/Hong Kong and S.Korea are easing out slowly now. US will soon follow, don't know about Italy + EU though
By your definition, there were hundreds of “buying opportunities” between October 9, 2007 and March 9, 2009. Had you bought every time the market dropped 5, 6, 7% you’d have spent most of your amo before the best opportunities presented themselves. Think of “buying down” as if swigging on a pint of Jim Beam. Nice and slow. Pace yourself man. Live for another day.
“The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average due to extraordinary interventions by governments and central banks to prop up the stock market.”
Here’s a “pop quiz” for Derf - How many times can something fall by 10% ?
pacing myself, ayup
So, I’m not omniscient. As I’ve said before ... there’s no cash stash here. I’m fully invested all the time with a small cash allocation - more in bonds. Unless you’re very young, caution is recommended. I have no desire to “day trade” (move in and out of markets frequently). But if I wanted to, T. Rowe Price wouldn’t go along anyway. They’d boot me out in a hurry.
What about the current situation makes one bullish at this juncture ? Airlines are closing down. Borders here and in Europe are shut. Tourism is 0. (Still a few drunk kids in Florida. Clearwater Beach will close Monday.) There are reliable predictions this crisis may last for a year or two, If large segments of the population are ill or dying, staying home and afraid to go anywhere, than who’s going to manufacture the things we need, grow our food, butcher the hogs & cattle, haul the food & merchandise to market, staff the stores or treat you when you need an appendectomy?
BTW - as of last evening you couldn’t buy toilet paper at Amazon - unless you opted for the “novelty” stuff with either Trump or Hillary printed in it.
Well, that seems pretty evenhanded. Something for almost everybody.
A for @Old_Joe tonight!
With my Schwab account down 22.14 % YTD, I don't think that's to funny ! How are you doing ?
Since 01/01/2020 I've put 7.3 % of total starting portfolio to work. Approximate half before the down draft. So I'm not throwing a large % into the fire.
parsig9, from above, is investing a lot more than me , but to be fair he has a (few) years to go to retirement & I've been there for ten years.
You commented, "What about the current situation makes one bullish at this juncture ."
Nothing about this situation makes me bullish at this time. Down the line things will turn & Mr . Market will catch his breathe & rise again. Or are things different time ?
Have a good evening , Derf
- Not sure what that means ... Is the Schwab everything you own,or just part of your investments?
- Are you calling a bottom in the market at today’s numbers?
- Do you have an allocation model you wish to share?
I don’t compute my returns daily or report them publicly. I do benchmark against TRRIX - as I’ve been doing for at least 15 years (often mentioned here). Generally I’m very close to that fund’s return over time..
End of this conversation, Derf
In addition to being irrelevant and potentially misleading, performance claims by anonymous voices on an open forum like this are just that. Barring confirming specifics such as name, address, SS#, account numbers and certified statements from financial institutions these claims must be considered unsubstantiated. That’s not an indictment of the forum. There’s a lot to be said for an informal and mostly anonymous arrangement like this.
You have caused me to rethink how I post. Some whom I respect mightily here have routinely declined to provide specifics regarding their investments / investment approach. But they’re great contributors in other ways. I suspect that in some cases they recognize that without providing personal and substantiating data, their claims would be of dubious value or open to suspicion. In other cases, I suspect it’s because they’re not certified to advise other investors and fear that by referencing their holdings they might inadvertently steer someone in the wrong direction.
In the future I’ll refrain in my board posts from mentioning any “buys” or “sells” or any mutual funds I own currently or have owned previously. Nor will I acknowledge any business associations I may have with any specific fund company or other fiduciaries or any associations I may have had in the past. Further, I’ll refrain from making any comment about perceived market valuation or direction. I won’t mention specific types of investments I own. And I won’t divulge my allocation to various assets. In essence, comments I’m not willing to substantiate by providing personal account-specific information have no place in this forum. Additionally, I’m not a certified financial advisor and so should not be opining about such matters as asset allocation, market valuations or direction.
After this last downdraft it confirms that everything works until it doesn't !!
I've ruffled a few feathers of fellow members , but usually that's from the way my words hit the page. Sorry about that. I was & still not the best at composing.
Have a good one, Derf
Oh yeah . . .
I did do some shopping Wednesday when the 10 year treasury rate jumped up.
If those rates can keep from levitating, I think we might be bouncing around a little less violently until we start seeing numbers measuring the consequences. Albeit, the jobless claims didn't seem to rattle anyone.
I suspect that there will be time to buy on the way back up too. Whatever that looks like, and whenever it starts.