Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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Brace yourself: 10 steps to take now to prepare for the next recession
I will sit and wait just like Warren Buffet as things just getting interesting. If this recession takes hold it may be more painful and longer lasting than the 2008 recession. This time the Fed and others around the globe may not have much left to stimulate the economy.
The whole thing amounts to a mini-tantrum and he is angry at everybody including China who he blames them on the market and the economy on chairman Powell. The biggest mistake is the belief that lowering interest rates by 25 or 50 bp (or even 100 bp as he floated the idea early in the week) will do anything to revive the economy. Realistically there is not much left in Federal Reserve to bail out the economy, unlike the 2008 timeframe.
In the recent weeks, Friday marked third declines in S&P500 of more than 2% with the a total decline of 5.8% of the last 4 weeks. Next fight is at G7 summit.
If he signs China would not be surprise if DOWS upswing 10 to 15% in few days WEEKS... He need to be fair and compromise everyone... Which maybe very hard to do w personalities issues
I woke up this morning to see headlines that Tweety Amin expressed 'second thoughts' about increasing the China tarriffs. Then, 2 hours later, the WH says he meant to say he had 'second thoughts' about the percentage of the increase and that it should've been higher, and his talking heads are reinforcing that on the bobblehead shows here. If this was during market hours, we'd have seen more 500-point whipsaws in the Dow.
The pathetic thing is that Nobody. Can. Plan. Effectively. China fiasco aside, he's flailing more and more ... i.e., the economy is 'booming' and the 'best ever' but he needs the Fed to cut rates anyway. He announces, or hints of announcing, something and then needs others to clean up after him before he reverses/suspends his decision once it polls poorly. Yes, there's the usual marketplace uncertainty we all accept as investors, but we've got a whole new level of instability here -- and then factor in algos that trade off of headlines between themselves, and you have a recipe for disaster. Speaking of algos, gods help us if the idiot rambles about gun violence, war, and the markets in the same tweet.
He was actually tweeting jokes about the Dow's drop on Friday, too. Average Joe/Jane investors may be nervous about their financial well-being, college funds, retirement plans, etc, and he's totally oblivious to them -- just has to snark on his political opponents quitting the race. Because, it's all about him and being the authoritarian strongman bully.
I shudder to think what this regime would have done if they were in charge during the GFC. We'd probably still be in it, based on their current track record for effectiveness, planning, and competence. But it'd never be *his* fault, because in the world of delusion created by his liddle stable genius chosen-one mind, he can do no wrong, ever.
"...Average Joe/Jane investors may be nervous about their financial well-being, college funds, retirement plans, etc, and he's totally oblivious to them -- just has to snark on his political opponents quitting the race. Because, it's all about him and being the authoritarian strongman bully."
Perfectly apt description. What is most appalling to me is that so many could not see this prospect during the campaign. They voted for this huckster with bad business sense. And now, with the absolute highest possible degree of sarcasm, I quote scripture: "...And a little child shall lead them."
"...Once in power, individuals with narcissistic personality disorder see themselves as history makers. They view themselves as great heroes who, unbound by the rules which govern lesser human beings, can bend history to their will and refashion the world in their image.
If there is hope in our present situation, it lies in the fact that the current occupant of the White House, in attempting to do just that, is opening our eyes to the reality that individuals with dangerous personalities can plunge entire societies into division and moral confusion. Creating a collective understanding of this fundamental truth is the first essential step to recovery from the collective madness." https://www.euronews.com/2019/08/14/unpicking-donald-trump-s-psychopathology-helps-explain-the-toxic-reality-facing-america-vi (Surely, "unpAcking" is intended in the title?)
All I have to say after reading the article is that I admire the framers of our constitution even more. Limiting the president to a 4 year term might limit the harm she or he could inflict, while allowing a successful performer to repeat their success. While it might be better for the non-Russian or Chinese world to have a shorter term, it's not realistic in this era. While I do agree with the basic observations in the article, based on my psychology undergrad degree, I also have a minor in West European history focused primarily on Germany in the 1930's. The environment is much different here, and I don't see Trump as the new Hitler, and the economy is markedly better than that in the Wiemar republic; but I am concerned with the concept of Dr. Goebbels that repeating the same lies consistently makes them believable. Hitler was not the leader of the dominant world power; but the American president is; and he has to convince his inferior associates that he has a viable concept of the future. I suspect these people are holding their breath until late January 2021. They don't really care whether Ruth Ginsburg survives until lat January 2021 or if "Moscow Mitch" is re-elected (sorry, but the alliteration is too perfect), but intellectually coherent individuals have to be concerned about the short-term future of our country.
I really like that. What a shame that wasn't written into our constitution as a presidential requirement by the framers. Of course all of them were intellectually coherent, so it likely never occurred to them that this was anything special.
What shatters me is the inability to TRUST anything this idiot 'president' says or does -- it's either false, exaggerated, reversed an hour later, or denied by others as ever having happened.[1] Couple that with his not having a higher degree of public trust because he fights tooth-and-nail to keep his tax returns secret is only further fuel for the fire....an 'innocent' or trustworthy person wouldn't do that. Gods help us if we ever get into a real war or financial crisis -- who are you going to believe? Tweety Amin and his fantasies or the traditional global news media?
If the Modern Framers could somehow include empathy, being a decent human being, and a requirement to represent ALL CITIZENS of the country, that would be nice, but .... alas.
[1] To wit: this morning he said China is 'ready to deal seriously' on trade, which shot the Dow up from it's -300 overnight levels after the G7+1 fiasco. Yet China denied any such phone calls had been made.
I really like that. What a shame that wasn't written into our constitution as a presidential requirement by the framers. Of course all of them were intellectually coherent, so it likely never occurred to them that this was anything special.
"...Yet China denied any such phone calls had been made. " Sadly, that's more believable than what The Tweeter Executive spouts. About anything, anytime.
All I have to say after reading the article is that I admire the framers of our constitution even more. Limiting the president to a 4 year term might limit the harm she or he could inflict, while allowing a successful performer to repeat their success.
Just a note, term limits weren't setup by the framers. That was introduced in the 22nd amendment. In fact the framers actually rejected the idea of term limits
Comments
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/23/1880993/-The-Trump-presidency-may-well-have-entered-its-endgame-today
In the recent weeks, Friday marked third declines in S&P500 of more than 2% with the a total decline of 5.8% of the last 4 weeks. Next fight is at G7 summit.
So much #winning!
The pathetic thing is that Nobody. Can. Plan. Effectively. China fiasco aside, he's flailing more and more ... i.e., the economy is 'booming' and the 'best ever' but he needs the Fed to cut rates anyway. He announces, or hints of announcing, something and then needs others to clean up after him before he reverses/suspends his decision once it polls poorly. Yes, there's the usual marketplace uncertainty we all accept as investors, but we've got a whole new level of instability here -- and then factor in algos that trade off of headlines between themselves, and you have a recipe for disaster. Speaking of algos, gods help us if the idiot rambles about gun violence, war, and the markets in the same tweet.
He was actually tweeting jokes about the Dow's drop on Friday, too. Average Joe/Jane investors may be nervous about their financial well-being, college funds, retirement plans, etc, and he's totally oblivious to them -- just has to snark on his political opponents quitting the race. Because, it's all about him and being the authoritarian strongman bully.
I shudder to think what this regime would have done if they were in charge during the GFC. We'd probably still be in it, based on their current track record for effectiveness, planning, and competence. But it'd never be *his* fault, because in the world of delusion created by his liddle stable genius chosen-one mind, he can do no wrong, ever.
GRUMBLE.
Perfectly apt description. What is most appalling to me is that so many could not see this prospect during the campaign. They voted for this huckster with bad business sense. And now, with the absolute highest possible degree of sarcasm, I quote scripture: "...And a little child shall lead them."
If there is hope in our present situation, it lies in the fact that the current occupant of the White House, in attempting to do just that, is opening our eyes to the reality that individuals with dangerous personalities can plunge entire societies into division and moral confusion. Creating a collective understanding of this fundamental truth is the first essential step to recovery from the collective madness."
https://www.euronews.com/2019/08/14/unpicking-donald-trump-s-psychopathology-helps-explain-the-toxic-reality-facing-america-vi
(Surely, "unpAcking" is intended in the title?)
While I do agree with the basic observations in the article, based on my psychology undergrad degree, I also have a minor in West European history focused primarily on Germany in the 1930's. The environment is much different here, and I don't see Trump as the new Hitler, and the economy is markedly better than that in the Wiemar republic; but I am concerned with the concept of Dr. Goebbels that repeating the same lies consistently makes them believable.
Hitler was not the leader of the dominant world power; but the American president is; and he has to convince his inferior associates that he has a viable concept of the future.
I suspect these people are holding their breath until late January 2021. They don't really care whether Ruth Ginsburg survives until lat January 2021 or if "Moscow Mitch" is re-elected (sorry, but the alliteration is too perfect), but intellectually coherent individuals have to be concerned about the short-term future of our country.
I really like that. What a shame that wasn't written into our constitution as a presidential requirement by the framers. Of course all of them were intellectually coherent, so it likely never occurred to them that this was anything special.
You said it!
What shatters me is the inability to TRUST anything this idiot 'president' says or does -- it's either false, exaggerated, reversed an hour later, or denied by others as ever having happened.[1] Couple that with his not having a higher degree of public trust because he fights tooth-and-nail to keep his tax returns secret is only further fuel for the fire....an 'innocent' or trustworthy person wouldn't do that. Gods help us if we ever get into a real war or financial crisis -- who are you going to believe? Tweety Amin and his fantasies or the traditional global news media?
If the Modern Framers could somehow include empathy, being a decent human being, and a requirement to represent ALL CITIZENS of the country, that would be nice, but .... alas.
[1] To wit: this morning he said China is 'ready to deal seriously' on trade, which shot the Dow up from it's -300 overnight levels after the G7+1 fiasco. Yet China denied any such phone calls had been made.
Sadly, that's more believable than what The Tweeter Executive spouts. About anything, anytime.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/3329550?mag=how-fdrs-presidency-inspired-term-limits&seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
now if we could only extend this idea to congress...