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Anyone buying tomorrow/tiptoes in?!

edited May 2019 in Off-Topic
If China USA agree on tradings agreement market may go up 400s 500 points in the bear future. Long term still looks good though (at least 12 or 24 months) economy still very strong

Did buy more brk.b today


  • John, several times in the past several months you have indicated that a market crash may be upon we investors within 12 to 24 months.
    Now the near term looks okay? You wrote long term, but I do not consider 12-24 months to be long term for market investing.
    Let me know when a major change is at hand.........being at least 3 days notice.
  • The difficulty is that you don't know (a) whether there will be a trade agreement (before 25% tariffs), and (b) whether the market will dip another few hundred points before it goes up your projected 400+ .

    Personally, I don't time the market. Right now I'm in the process of rearranging some IRA funds. For that, I don't care if the market goes up or down.

    What I do care about, given that there's a one day lag between selling a fund in one family and buying a fund in another, is that the market is fairly quiescent. So I'll just wait out all this nonsense, and then make my changes.
  • edited May 2019
    Hi @johnN: Old_Skeet will need to see somewhere around 2750 on the S&P 500 Index before I'll begin to consider (or even thinking about) putting any new money to work in equities. As you may remember I was equity heavy a few weeks ago and have been trimming. I am now about where I need to be, so, with this, I now watch and I await for my first buy step mark to appear. After all, the Index is only off its Friday's close of 2946 by about 2.1%.

    Also, please remember by the metrics of my barometer the S&P Index was just recently "extremely overbought." I'd like to see a barometer reading of, at least, "oversold" before I deploy any cash into equities.

  • edited May 2019
    Waiting 'till Friday afternoon. If Donnie Dimwit follows through and kicks increased tarriffs off at 1201AM that morning, and China reciprocates at 1202AM as they've said, Friday's markets may well be a bloodbath ... so that would be the time to incrementally buy/add to positions I think, with potentially plenty of follow-thru to the downside that next week. At least that's my plan.
  • edited May 2019

    In response to your question, I’m not sure there are any frequent traders left here. Most of us have a longer term strategy and own equities, funds or bonds for the longer term, perhaps trimming occasionally around the edges. With the DJI at 25,000+, a 400-500 point change (up or down) isn’t what it used to be 5, 10 or 15 years ago. While the blowoff this week has been noteworthy, it’s probably not enough for anyone with a long range plan to start buying. Your term “tiptoes in” leads me to wonder whether you’ve exited the market previously and are now considering getting back in? If that’s the case how much did you unload previously? When?

    Day trading by small (non institutional) investors was the rave 10, 20, and 30 years ago. Many individuals made a lot of money getting in and out on a near daily basis. But you rarely hear of it today. Could it be this crowd got burned disproportionally during both the 2000 and 2008 market declines? Repeatedly buying into a market that’s 20-25% overvalued after each 3-4% dip would seem to be a sure-fire way to lose money long term.

    @John, it would be interesting to hear more about your overall strategy or approach to investing:

    - Are you primarily a buyer of individual stocks (like Boeing which you recently reported buying) or do you mostly own mutual funds?

    - Approximately how many equity holdings do you typically own (individual stocks and funds)?

    - Since you sometimes report buying bonds, what % do you like to carry in fixed income?

    - Do you hold many AAA (government backed) bonds (or bond funds), or are they mostly speculative in grade?

    - Do you have any favorite mutual fund families that you use?

    - Are most of your investments within tax shelters?

    - Are you thinking in terms of some defined time-horizon (number of years)?

    No doubt you’ve shared the above piecemeal over the years. Would be nice to learn about your overall plan if you have one.
  • edited May 2019
    Hi everyone... very busy today... Will response later... after work... Many good questions thx

    In brief long term horizons mostly index investing buy and hold...401k 80%20%. Have some long term holders like
    Vanguard star
    Vanguard prime caps

    Don't really trade much but private sep-ira held mostly stocks and indexes (Vti brk.b apple)

    We always dca and buy even downturns.. Can withstand few more crashes
    Retire in 15 to 18 yrs

  • edited May 2019
    johnN said:

    Hi everyone... very busy today... Will response later... after work... Many good questions thx
    We always dca and buy even downturns..

    Thanks @JohnN. That helps a lot. Would enjoy hearing more when you have the time. Sounds like you’re still working and contributing. There’s both a 401-K and a Sep-IRA. Sounds like a great plan.

    “DCA” (dollar cost averaging) is in itself a form of “tiptoeing in” on a regular basis. There wouldn’t be much reason to change the amount being invested (weekly, monthly, etc.) or allocated to different assets based on a few days market action. And yes - with dollar cost averaging you’re always buying, even during crashes.

    I’m wondering, however, if there’s another separate source of investment monies elsewhere that allows you to buy and sell equities and bonds quite often. Or, possibly, you move the $$ around inside your two tax sheltered plans quite a bit?

    While most here are familiar with 401-K, they may not (like myself) know as much about the Sep-IRA. So here’s a link:
  • @John - I assume that you are married. If not how do you contribute to both a 401-k and a SEP IRA?
  • edited May 2019
    @_mark. Hi sir Right. Tsp not 401k. Did call Vanguard 2 yrs ago and they states its legal. Tax wise

    If you have 401k think you can get defined benefits or solo-Ira also..

    Also hold lots private Corp bond in brokerage acct yield 6-7 %
  • Mark said:

    @John - I assume that you are married. If not how do you contribute to both a 401-k and a SEP IRA?

    Not John speaking, but the general answer is multiple employers, each with its own plan.

  • I’m a very conservative investor. But at 15-18 years from retirement (roughly 1980) I was 100% in a good global growth fund, regularly contributing. Only started making changes after 1995 when retirement was 3 years away. Of course one size does not fit all.
  • edited May 2019
    Table of Holdings By Account for selected account - merrilledge private account
    Have not change tsp distribution since 2007

    according to M*
    75s% stock, ~24.81% bonds/corps HY, and ~0.2% cash

    ACAD popup
    ALLYPRA popup
    BRKB popup
    C98 popup
    CIM PRA popup
    EEB popup
    GE popup
    GLOPPRA popup
    LSBRX popup
    MNK popup
    MXXIX popup
    NLY popup
    PBA popup
    PCI popup
    PDI popup
    PFF popup
    PHO popup
    PRPFX popup
    QQQ popup
    T48 popup - ATT bond
    T57 popup
    AT&T INC
    VEU popup
    VHT popup
    Vanguard primecap
    VTI popup
    Action for symbol VTI
    Vanguard star vgstx
    VWO popup
    VXF popup
    VZ54 popup
    VZ55 popup

    in TSP ~80s-20s% distributions
    80s%: divided along large/small-mid/international [~ 1/3 each]
    20s%: 15% toward bonds and ~ 5% toward cash/MM
  • edited May 2019
    @JohnN, Thanks for sharing. Interesting. Appears that you are about 80% equity and 20% fixed income.

    - Do you know what % of those assets are held thru mutual funds and what % are direct ownership of stocks?

    - Since the list (60) is alphabetical, could you also indicate what a few of your largest holdings are?

    - What led you to buy PRPFX? Any idea what % of your total holdings that fund comprises?
  • edited May 2019
    Hi Sir @_Hank

    Forgot about Vanguard

    Largest holdings are
    Vanguard prime cap core vppcx 7%
    Vanguard star vgstx about 5%

    And TSP mostly in indexes as above distribution evenly
    Large cap C fund index
    Mid and small cap S Fund index
    TSP Oversea fund I (Similar to EEM)
    Brk.b about 5% portfolio
    Also tsp2040 tdf

    Prpfx held since 2010s think from fund alarms recommended by many folks, held it since and never sold it or trade it. Think about ~2% of portfolio

    Thx for asking

  • johnN said:

    in the bear future.

    best typo ever, or so I assume

    I bought some PCI and, prematurely before the big drop, some DSENX. This is not going to be a big deal no matter what happens. Trade impacts, Trump tariffs, are ultimately pretty low even of the worst and stupidest sort.
  • edited May 2019
    With the market having a hissy fit due to the trade debacle that now exist with China I'm feeling pretty good in (now) holding some extra cash. In checking Old_Skeet's market barometer, this evening, (that follows the S&P 500 Index) I am finding a reading of 152 indicating fair value as of market close today. I am wanting to see a reading in the high 150's to low 160's before I do any buying around the edges in any of my equity funds.
  • The only tiptoes I will be doing is through the tulips !!

    Good investing to All, Derf
  • edited May 2019
    Still early in the day Monday, but looking more like tip-toes out.


  • Betcha didn't know it (or care) but Tiny Tim named his daughter Tulip. Google it ...
  • edited May 2019
    PopTart said:

    Betcha didn't know it (or care) but Tiny Tim named his daughter Tulip. Google it ...

    Tiny Tim was born in 1932 and died in 1998. He recorded the above hit referenced in the above hit single in 1968

    What does this have to do with investing?

    - If you were recently post - HS / college and only recently working when the song came out, it would place you at roughly 70-80 years of age today and you ought to be investing conservatively, maybe 40-60% equities depending on health, dependents, other assets and individual circumstances.

  • To the spirit of this thread, I was tempted but have not yet thrown new money into the markets yet on these trade-war dips.......
  • bot qqq and vti today, margin
  • @rforno; I'm thinking there may be more than trade-war going on. More trouble brewing in Middle East. Damage to tankers, 4 I believe.
  • edited May 2019
    Persian war maybe on horizon... Placed trade order fro energy vde

    Don't know if they pull in China ussr England isarel nato.. But then againn maybe not... USA maybe independent of oil now and USA base oil companies maybe very rich if bad things happened in Persian gulf

  • Yeah saw that. ;/
    Derf said:

    @rforno; I'm thinking there may be more than trade-war going on. More trouble brewing in Middle East. Damage to tankers, 4 I believe.

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