Estimating Odds

Hi Guys,

Many investors like to invest and/or trade based on perceived odds. Here is a Link to a more or less conventional interpretation of odds:

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/an-interpretation-of-stated-odds/

This Link provides a very attractive and simple odds table. It appears to make decision making more scientific and exact. But it's false confidence. It presumes we know more then we really do know. The precise future, especially in the investment world, is unpredictable. That's especially true when time enters the equation. Donald Rumsfeld summarized it best with the following quote:

" There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know."

Truer words have never been spoken. The futility of estimating odds and likely outcomes when making investment decisions is part of rhe excitment and fears for all investors. It likely doesn't payoff, especially in the short term, but it's fun regardless of its inaccuracy.

Best Regards