Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

  • MJG December 2018
  • Ted December 2018
Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Estimating Odds

Hi Guys,

Many investors like to invest and/or trade based on perceived odds. Here is a Link to a more or less conventional interpretation of odds:

This Link provides a very attractive and simple odds table. It appears to make decision making more scientific and exact. But it's false confidence. It presumes we know more then we really do know. The precise future, especially in the investment world, is unpredictable. That's especially true when time enters the equation. Donald Rumsfeld summarized it best with the following quote:

" There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know."

Truer words have never been spoken. The futility of estimating odds and likely outcomes when making investment decisions is part of rhe excitment and fears for all investors. It likely doesn't payoff, especially in the short term, but it's fun regardless of its inaccuracy.

Best Regards


  • @MJG: Sorry old buddy, but your a day late and a dime short !
  • Hi Ted,

    No problem. Thanks for the heads up. I often find myself in that uncomfortable position. I suppose I'll just try harder.

    Best Wishes
Sign In or Register to comment.