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Buy ... Sell ... and Ponder (Fall Investing Season ... September, October & November)

Old_Skeet
edited September 2018 in Fund Discussions
My thoughts and positioning follow. As we open September Old_Skeet is currently just watching the markets and has been building my cash position since late June as my market barometer indicated that the S&P 500 Index moved from being undervalued in June to being fairly valued for most of July and August and just recently moved into overvalued status. I'm thinking with the upcoming November elections this will provide me a buying opportunity should I want to increase my equity allocation or perhaps open and build a fall spiff position as I'm thinking stocks will go soft around election time. Currently, my most recent Xray of my portfolio bubbled my asset allocation at 17% cash, 34% US equity, 18% foreign equity, 25% bonds and 6% other assets. During the past rolling quarter (90 day period) my commodity strategy fund (PCLAX, -3.2%) along with my emerging market fund (NEWFX, -3.5%) went soft while my aggressive growth fund (AOFAX, +19.6%) ... a dividend strategy fund (FDSAX, +7.7%) ... and, a large cap growth fund SPECX, +7.6%) all had a nice upward movement. Overall, I made some good money during this past rolling quarter.

So, for now, I just sit and await a good stock market pullback so I can put some cash to work (most likely in a spiff position) when the next buying opportunity presents itself as measured by my market barometer.

In closing ... I guess, for now, I ponder as I am not buying, nor selling, while I continue to build cash awaiting a good stock market pullback.
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Comments

  • TedTed
    @MFO Members: Bought PRHSX on 8/27/18, fund was up 2.87% for the week. During the same period of time the S&P 500 returned .98%. I know its only five days, but this is a perfect example by being aggressive you get enhanced returns.
    Regards,
    Ted:)
  • Sven
    No significant move here. Majority of my gain came from the reduction of equity in late January before the big drop. Few tactical buys in Apple and BRKb; rebalancing with more Vanguard Equity Income. Wish I am more optimistic for the rest of the year.
  • hank
    edited September 2018
    I don’t normally post buys / sells. But FWIW, over past 6 months I’ve nibbled on some of the real asset type funds I already owned as things got cheaper. Today, I find myself a bit overweight in that area - and yet it still hasn’t paid me back. The entire area is still in the doldrums.

    Still hoping for a change in direction. (Hope is not a viable investment plan.):)

    Unlike @Ted, my point here is that when you buy things that look cheap ... they might get even cheaper. Here’s the 4 funds I’m referencing: PRAFX, TRREX, OPGSX, OQGAX. Together, they comprise 7.5% of total investments.
  • TedTed
    @hank: My suggestion would be, take that 7.5% and put it into something that working for the remainder of 08. You said it yourself, "Still hoping for a change in direction. (Hope is not a viable investment plan.)" Believe me that's not going to happen, and you won't miss the four funds you mentioned.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • hank
    edited September 2018
    I wasn’t soliciting advice. Just sharing something that hasn’t worked. Hope there’s room in the thread for some of those types of submissions as well. (The “hope is not a plan” was meant in jest. Nobody needs to tell me that.)

    If somebody wants to start a thread on only what funds have been rising lately, that’s possible. (I think @Catch22 has in the past posted a very detailed chart which shows the hottest sectors.)

    I’ve never been a momentum investor. That’s not to take away from those who subscribe to it. I do have a plan suitable for someone of my age, temperament, situation, and life expectancy. Intend to stay with the plan that’s served me well over the years.
    -

    * What I will suggest here, however, that the experience I shared might point to very narrow (maybe even narrowing) market breadth. Is it possible that only a few hot sectors are driving those gains in the major indexes?
  • johnNjohnN
    Probably will add brk.b and spy Tues after more div comes in... So overwt in bonds.
  • jlev
    Pondering my emerging market and whether to rebalance into being overweight EM again
  • Old_Skeet
    edited September 2018
    As the threads host, I want everyone to feel welcome in this thread. To me, all post are important.

    In reading through the above comments I'm finding some discussion about recent buys that were not working as thought they would. And, they were posted as a point of interest. As the threads host I feel this type of post was indeed in good order for it lets others know of these funds and their themes that are currently out of favor and under stress. Old_Skeet even posted what had not been working during the last rolling quarter within his own portfolio along with my three leaders. In the past, I have bought stuff that was currently out of favor (funds) because I felt in due time they would recover and become winners. Many have. One of my strategies is to buy when I feel good value can be had and then sell after recovery and good profit is made. To do this, I have to buy low and then sell high. Especially, in my spiffs. With members making comments about thier own stuff (whether working or not working) brings value to the thread. So please keep your comments and post coming.

    Thanks again ... for stopping by ... for reading ... and, for your comments.

    Old_Skeet



  • oletimer63
    Continuing to DCA into PRGTX. I started when this was new fund and it has doubled in price. Once it get to $25 a share, I’ll stop buying and let err ride like I did with PRMTX and PRHSX.
  • johnNjohnN
    edited September 2018
    Got lots div today came late after holiday. added to brk.b. place small portions in MNK and VHT today....any thoughts about bitcoin, anyone add to this ETFs--> some people think this is the new amazon or google..
  • PRESSmUPPRESSmUP
    edited September 2018
    Today, I traded out of ROSOX and into GSIHX, now that the latter is available NTF at Schwab.

    I'm at a 62% equity position now...the most conservative ever (for me). Similar to Old Skeet, I'm sitting on a pile of cash waiting for a pullback, pulling associated levers on a Schwab CD ladder in the interim.
  • johnNjohnN
    edited September 2018
    If 62 yo I would be sitting in bunch of cash cd and bond tooooo.. Likely > 65%
  • Old_Skeet
    edited September 2018
    Themes that were positive in Old_Skeet's portfolio today with the S&P 500 Index being down -0.28% along with most global markets. My two dividend strategy funds were up (SVAAX +0.87%) & (FDSAX +0,49%), my infrastructure fund (PGUAX +0.34%), and my real estate fund (FRINX +0.16%) plus a good number of others were also up. In checking some of @hank's funds that he noted that were currently struggling and that he has been building positions in were his real estate fund TRREX which was up +0.70% and his infrustructure fund OQGAX which was up +0.09%.

    Anybody else have funds that were up today that they would like to comment on?
  • CrashCrash
    Everything in my portf. was down or flat, EXCEPT MAPOX. Dunno why. Up 0.2%.
  • slick
    Two of my value funds, TWEIX, UBVSX and my dividend growth fund VDIGX ( my second largest holding) were up and like you, my reit fund also. Even AOFAX was finally down today, it mainly goes up even on rough market days. Been wanting to add to it, but i keep waiting it to dip, but I have enough that I would be ok to watch and wait
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    ACMVX, TWEIX, USMV, and, of all things, MJ all up a little bit. 22 others, all down.
  • BenWPBenWP
    @PRESSmUP: Did you sell ROSOX because GSIHX has done so much better over almost equal time since their inception dates? I sold the former a few months ago.
  • PRESSmUPPRESSmUP
    edited September 2018
    Ben...I took note of your and slick's comments on Jain's offerings in April of this year. While I don't think the delta in short term performance is overly meaningful, I do find Jain's market cap and regional coverage a bit more to my liking...specifically a lighter touch on Japan.

    M*'s incorrect note on it not being available at Schwab likely caused the delay in making this move. Lesson learned.


  • oletimer63
    I have changed course with PRGTX. Left my original investment dollars in and moved profit out equally to PRHSX, PRWCX and RPSIX.
  • Old_Skeet
    edited September 2018
    Now that the US 10 Year is above a yield of three percent I added to CTFAX with another buy step. According to Morningstar its current allocation bubbles at about 80% fixed income and 20% equity. In a stock market pullback CTFAX increases its position in equities while reducing its position in fixed income then rebalances as equities recover. Since it is usually at least 80% in fixed income I hold this fund within my fixed income sleeve.

    Below is the charting for the yield of the US 10 Yr. Remember bond valuations run inverse of their yield.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p70552233025
  • Old_Skeet
    edited September 2018
    The Decision Moose has made a weekly signal change swithching from IWM to SPY on 9/21.

    http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html

    Ron Rowland's Market Leadership Strategy matrix:

    http://investwithanedge.com/market-leadership-strategy
  • johnNjohnN
    added to BRK.B and QQQ. sold several private bonds recently - maybe added more cash. saving more cash on the side anticipating paying lots of taxations this yr
  • slick
    Decided to lighten up a bit on PRGTX, held in my roth, it was my largest fund, and shaved some profit, as my portfolio was getting tech heavy. Also took some profits from CMTFX which I held in my regular ira. Tech still represents after the sale over 24% of my total.
  • willmatt72
    Sold PRGTX after seeing modest gains evaporate due to poor stock picking and constant trading by the manager. Split the funds between VGT and FSPTX.
  • jlev
    Bought a small bit of GOF as its z score turned favorable.
  • Derf
    Sold small holding of TIVFX.
    Derf
  • johnNjohnN
    edited September 2018
    Bought little of LTC, added more to qqq and acad yesterday.. Still 80 20 in 401k.. Bought pimco bond ETF for mom retired acct
  • Old_Skeet
    Towards the latter part of the week bought some more fixed income (LBNDX & NEFZX).
  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    edited September 2018
    Waiting to buy IVWAX if I can get it NTF, after it makes distributions
    Bottom fished the much malined ARTZX (yeah over ARTYX, while I might buy it too). Both for trades of course.
  • johnNjohnN
    https://m.nasdaq.com/article/3-funds-to-buy-from-the-pimco-portfolio-cm1029654
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