Back i January 2018 I jumped into an additional emerging market fund GQGPX (already had SIGIX) whose manager Rajiv Jain I had experience with when he was with Vontobel (had the fund for 4 years) but he left to from his own boutique firm. I had bought a fund he subadvised at Goldman Sachs in September 2017 GSIHX since his emerging stock fund was not available at Fidelity, but found it available at TD America so I jumped in January 2018 awaiting its availability on the Fidelity platform at some point. Made a nice return until emerging markets tanked, and sold GQGPX in July 2018. Since it was in a taxable account, decided to sell since I had some substantial profits in a stock I sold in January (ABBV).
Emerging markets have declined substantially since I sold GQGPX, and I am wondering if its near a bottom, it is now available at Fido, and can put into into my Roth. I have been adding to its sister fund GSIHX, but have enough in there now. It is mostly in developed market. Holding onto SIGIX despite its recent history, as I buy good managers, and tend give them at least 2 years to come back when they falter, especially if their part of the market is more the issue, but have reduced it a bit in favor of Jain's fund.
Anyone else think emerging markets are ready to buy? All opinions welcome
Comments
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20180713/FREE/180719955/emerging-markets-have-yet-to-reach-bottom
Tell me. At least some of my cash is earning 2.5% on 14 month CDs. I try to ignore our EM equities.
A one year chart for VWO reference.
One will see where the 50 and 100 day moving averages have traveled below the 200 day moving average; and still moving down.
Here is copy from Stocktrader's Weekly Market Recap (09/09/18) on emerging markets. It reads ...
"Keep an eye on emerging markets – we’ve seen rustling out of Turkey, Argentina, South Africa, etc – it’s still pretty quiet out there but in 1997 a market dislocation hit due to an event in Thailand of all places so the general weakness we are seeing in many emerging markets won’t matter – until it does."
and
"A team led by Marko Kolanovic, global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy at J.P. Morgan, blamed the weakness in global markets to a “risk-off” mode with investors seeking to minimize their exposure to risky assets such as stocks amid concerns about contagion from emerging markets as well as the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar and higher interest rates."
Again, with this, I plan no near term action to increase my allocation to emerging markets. I've got some funds within my portfolio that roam the investment universe and position accordingly so if I miss a strategy move into emerging markets myself they most likely will key upon it.
For me to move ... I'll need to see a weaness in the US Dollar along with a tappering in the FOMC rate increase campaign.
Regards,
Ted
This is no special exception. Trying to convince yourself this is a losing formula. Stay true to your strategic asset allocation.
For me, I usually build cash when asset values are high and buy during times of good pullbacks. Then rebalance during the recovery when higher valuations are reached . My asset allocation has some range of movement built within it. Currently, I'm at the low range for me in emerging markets thus I can do some buying before I reach my range cap. However, I'm looking for a better entry point as I'm thinking they are heading lower since we have a strong US Dollar and the FOMC is still with their rising interest rate campgain. I could be wrong on this but this is how I plan to play it.
Other assets hit hard are gold (off big-time) and foreign equities. PIEQX (International Equity Index Fund), which I sold near the top last fall, is off about 5.5% YTD. Price’s EM bond fund, PREMX, is off over 8%. Unfortunately, I waded into the latter one about 75-85 days ago and am down a bit over 3.5% in that time. As long as the Dollar stays at this level there’s little hope for gains in the non-Dollar assets.
Fortunately, currencies do move in both directions. At some point those non-dollar assets will rebound. No telling when. I remain widely diversified as always. So a 3-4% hit to one asset means little to me. Willing to ride the markets and take what I can. I understand the conundrum faced by some of the more opportunistic investors looking for entry points. Honestly, nothing looks cheap to me at this point. Perhaps gold - but it’s also a good way to lose both your shirt and your pants if you guess wrong. Wouldn’t advise it.
Added Note: - The Prez has been “arm-wrestling” Fed Chair Powell a bit to try and keep the rate hikes subdued. As the 2020 election draws closer, the pressure on the Fed to ease-up on the hikes will grow more intense. So, a big surprise - which could turn these markets upside down - would be if he succeeds in getting the Fed to ease up. Currency markets could turn on a dime if they detected that scent in the wind. At this point it’s anybody’s guess. “Ya pays your money and ya takes your chances.”
@hank: Exactamundo. Now the good news! Ahead $178 on MJ! In less than two weeks! Why didn't somebody tell me about this before?? More fun than the slots and you don't even have to pull the handle!
I thought I had retained a write about the market flip at the end of January........can't find.
However, I continue to be inclined that the late January global equity markets actions have more to do with "other", and not so much a stronger dollar and higher gov't. bonds issues here. Other being continuing twitches about trade and tariffs; as well as a little here and a little there......Turkey, Argentina, etc.
A risk off for some areas continues for the markets since Jan. 26 or so. The downside took place then and remains in place for numerous sectors, having not attained and/or recovered to a previous higher price level.
Pillow time.................
Catch
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/elon-musk-smokes-weed-on-joe-rogan-podcast.html
-
P.S. @Old Joe - More fun than Monte Carlo ... ?
PS: My biggest regret in the Scotch department was some 20-year old single malt that Costco evidently bought on a one-time deal from a very decent Scottish distillery, and let loose for about $30. I bought half a dozen, and have kicked myself since: should have gotten a couple of cases. Down to one last bottle- saving it for special occasions.
PPS: Well, yeah, actually a lot more fun than bugging his Monte Carlo-ness. @msf is currently holding down that fort. I'm just trying to help a little.
Naw - No good ideas where to invest your gains from weed at this time. I was going to suggest (only in jest) maybe “roll” it into a few bottles of JW Black. Sells for $40 here in Michigan. $200 would net ya 5 of them.
I think it’s a good blend. Haven’t found any single malts in that price range I like all that much. Dewars has a blend out they call “12-Year” that’s also very good. It’s $40 now, but picked up a couple for $30 when they cut the price briefly over the summer. Interestingly, their White Label is also a 12-year - but not as good (or expensive).
Great deal on that single malt. Yep - You shoulda “backed up the truck” to their door on that one.
I've said it before - look at the $. $ up means Emerging Markets down and vice versa.
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/innovation-and-growth/outperformers-high-growth-emerging-economies-and-the-companies-that-propel-them?cid=soc-app
Report linked in the article
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/innovation/outperformers high growth emerging economies and the companies that propel them/mgi-outperformers-full-report-sep-2018.ashx
This infographic was also a good summary
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/innovation/outperformers high growth emerging economies and the companies that propel them/outperformers-snapshot-poster.ashx