Busy all day - so haven’t kept up with the news. But did hear about Turkey (the place) in the wee morning hours and how their currency woes were bleeding into EM currency markets - also how the Dollar was strengthening against other currencies. Looks like most anything with foreign currency exposure (bonds and equities) got hit hard today. Commodities down. Gold continues to bleed as well. (I thought $1200 was some sort of floor. Apparently not.)
The inflation numbers this morning had it running at 2.9% year-over-year. While the pundits were calling that “cheery” news, sounds a bit ominous to me. At that rate in just 3 years your everyday items would tack on near 10% in price (inflation compounds - similar to how compound interest works).
Not a terribly bad day - as things can get much worse than this. Just a glass of ice water in the face.
Comments
PTIAX +.23%.
PRSNX -.09%
RPIHX -.3%
(RPIHX is the largest holding of the three.)
Still, it's just 1 day. But we'd all rather watch it move UP.
My very conservative portfolio had an unusually poor day - losing .39%. My two benchmarks were as follows: TRRIX -.32% and RPSIX -.24%. The second, while an income fund, was likely hurt by exposure to EM and other foreign currencies. Overall I was hurt by a tilt toward commodities and foreign bonds - which I continue to view as a hedge against a future depreciating Dollar (meaning higher prices).
I had only one positive fund: DODIX. But holding up well were a couple alternative type funds: TMSRX: -.10% and QVOPX: -.07%. So it looks like the alternative funds finally did what they were designed to do.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/101419/#Comment_101419
I’ll make a prediction:
I predict that from now (and going forward), large sums of money will continue to pour into this fund until such time as (1) they shutter it or (2) the fund suffers a sharp correction of 10-20% or more.
Regards. Happy investing.
Nice of you to respond. No intent to demean the fund. If anything, I’m damn jealous!
Just suggesting that “The early bird catches the worm” and, possibly, most of the worm here has already been eaten. We’ll see. Guess my point was that any fund with that kind of showing will attract a bunch of money. Today that type of success spreads rapidly across the internet. Goes with the territory.
Personally I’m mystified (and remain invested cautiously) by the prolonged bull market following the ‘07-‘09 debacle. The magnitude surpasses anything I’ve heard of throughout history - except perhaps the 1630s tulip mania, the “Roaring” ‘20s and the internet craze of the late 90s. (No doubt there are other examples - umm, maybe some of the gold bubbles.)
There’s more than a few commentators here and elsewhere, better educated / informed than I, whom I suspect share in my bemusement - although it’s tough being a bear in the face of a raging bull. Heck - long-serving analyst / panel member Gail Dudack was fired from Rukeyser’s popular show in ‘99 after he tired of her repeated bearish calls re technology during the mania - only to be eventually proven correct.
And so it goes. Again thank you for all your contributions. While I may not always agree, they add greatly to the vast sum of wisdom here.