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Days like this teach you you’re not as smart as you think you are.

edited August 2018 in Off-Topic
Busy all day - so haven’t kept up with the news. But did hear about Turkey (the place) in the wee morning hours and how their currency woes were bleeding into EM currency markets - also how the Dollar was strengthening against other currencies. Looks like most anything with foreign currency exposure (bonds and equities) got hit hard today. Commodities down. Gold continues to bleed as well. (I thought $1200 was some sort of floor. Apparently not.)

The inflation numbers this morning had it running at 2.9% year-over-year. While the pundits were calling that “cheery” news, sounds a bit ominous to me. At that rate in just 3 years your everyday items would tack on near 10% in price (inflation compounds - similar to how compound interest works).

Not a terribly bad day - as things can get much worse than this. Just a glass of ice water in the face.


  • Every time PRWCX approaches $30/share, ya know it is going to fall. That fund is SERIOUSLY afraid to break through that number. Best today: PTIAX, +0.23%. Worst: PRIDX, -1.41%.
  • Best today IQDAX +1.77
  • Good on ya. Too exotic for me.
  • Just about all my domestic bond funds are up. Foreign equity and debts fell, especially those with USD hedging. It is a good time to review your allocation again.

  • Too exotic for me as well (IQDAX).
  • I Hold 20 Different Funds,They All Declined Today. Total Loss - 53%
  • I had one equity fund that was up AOFAX along with some bond funds.
  • Congrats on AOFAX. Does it behave well when small-caps in general rise? Or is it an outlier, a contrarian? It is, by name, "focused."
  • Days like Friday are not all bad. It reveals to the investors on how their portfolio can weather various market conditions. This week is about Turkey and how it impacts the rest of the world. Judging from the previous week, S&P 500 declined 0.2%, developed market index declined 1.7%, emerging market index declined 1.3%, total bond index moved up 0.3%, and REIT declined 1.7%. As expect the correlation between equity and bond held up at least for this week.
  • TedTed
    edited August 2018
    @MFO Members: My entire stock, bond, and fund portfolio was down yesterday -(.56)%
  • Small consolation, but my own stuff was down on Friday by -0.38%. I am 37% bonds, and here's how my dedicated bond funds performed:
    PTIAX +.23%.
    PRSNX -.09%
    RPIHX -.3%

    (RPIHX is the largest holding of the three.)
    Still, it's just 1 day. But we'd all rather watch it move UP.
  • Hi @Crash: AOFAX is a relative new fund for me. I also own a sister fund SPECX which has performed well for me over the past ten years, or so, and it had grown to a sizeable position within the growth area of my portfolio. With this, I was looking at another fund within its fund family to invest in. I had AOFAX under review when another poster brought light to it on the board. With this, I did a nav exchange from some of my SPECX into AOFAX. Its a small cap growth fund that has performed well for me thus far ... but, I score it on the aggressive side. You might wish to review its fact sheet and its Morningstar report for more details.
  • edited August 2018
    Thanks for all the great comments. Some of us enjoy looking under the hood from time to time to see how the belts, fluids and strut bushings are holding up. To others, this minutia is sure to drive them nuts.:)

    My very conservative portfolio had an unusually poor day - losing .39%. My two benchmarks were as follows: TRRIX -.32% and RPSIX -.24%. The second, while an income fund, was likely hurt by exposure to EM and other foreign currencies. Overall I was hurt by a tilt toward commodities and foreign bonds - which I continue to view as a hedge against a future depreciating Dollar (meaning higher prices).

    I had only one positive fund: DODIX. But holding up well were a couple alternative type funds: TMSRX: -.10% and QVOPX: -.07%. So it looks like the alternative funds finally did what they were designed to do.

  • Like Old_Skeet, my AOFAX was up, as was my other small cap fund CCASX. Bond funds mixed, GIBIX up .30%, PYACX up .37%, others down a bit. I believe it was Old_Skeet who originally got me to look at AOFAX, thanks:)
  • edited August 2018
    @slick: Looking back into the stack of post it was young in the May "Buy, Sell or Ponder" thread that brought light to AOFAX to the board. I have provided a link to the post as there is a good bit of discussion that takes place on the fund. Just scroll around a few comments infront and behind this link. Interestingly, there only a few post and visits made by young.
  • @Old_Skeet, I do remember that discussion, and that was when I started looking at it too. I remember hearing about Brown Capital fund a couple of years before, but that was when I was with ML and it was not available to buy there. Its the major reason I left, since many funds were not available on their platform. Everything at Fidelity now. I bought AOFAX around the same time as you, and do watch it closely as small caps have been hot, but may not last as long as I like. I do have other small cap funds, one other small growth fund, a small cap value and a blend etf.
  • edited August 2018
    @Old_Skeet - Congrats to you and others for the great call. I don’t know how AOFAX has done since May, but probably very well. For the year it’s up 33%. - which ain’t shabby.

    I’ll make a prediction:

    I predict that from now (and going forward), large sums of money will continue to pour into this fund until such time as (1) they shutter it or (2) the fund suffers a sharp correction of 10-20% or more.

    Regards. Happy investing.
  • edited August 2018
    @hank: Currently, AOFAX is a relative small holding for me at this time. Usually, when I establish a new position it will stay under construction for a year possibly longer before it is built out. I plan to continue to buy on weakness plus I am anticipating a sizeable capital gain distribution come year end. And, if so, I'll do some more buying after the distribution. I have bought four times since May and I'm up by about 9% from my average cost. In the meantime should I reach a return of 10%, I may buy again ... and, keep averaging in until the position gets built out. I plan for this fund to become a long term position much like SPECX has been. Moringstar has its sustainability scored as above average. This is not a fund I plan to trade in and out of.
  • edited August 2018

    Nice of you to respond. No intent to demean the fund. If anything, I’m damn jealous!
    Just suggesting that “The early bird catches the worm” and, possibly, most of the worm here has already been eaten. We’ll see. Guess my point was that any fund with that kind of showing will attract a bunch of money. Today that type of success spreads rapidly across the internet. Goes with the territory.

    Personally I’m mystified (and remain invested cautiously) by the prolonged bull market following the ‘07-‘09 debacle. The magnitude surpasses anything I’ve heard of throughout history - except perhaps the 1630s tulip mania, the “Roaring” ‘20s and the internet craze of the late 90s. (No doubt there are other examples - umm, maybe some of the gold bubbles.)

    There’s more than a few commentators here and elsewhere, better educated / informed than I, whom I suspect share in my bemusement - although it’s tough being a bear in the face of a raging bull. Heck - long-serving analyst / panel member Gail Dudack was fired from Rukeyser’s popular show in ‘99 after he tired of her repeated bearish calls re technology during the mania - only to be eventually proven correct.

    And so it goes. Again thank you for all your contributions. While I may not always agree, they add greatly to the vast sum of wisdom here.
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