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‘This rally in stocks is a last hurrah!’ warns Guggenheim’s Minerd
Sooner or later, the down cycle that Mr Minerd has been predicting for some time will materialize. But, I'm going to stick with his bond offerings only
@LewisBraham One aspect that continues since the global equity mini-melt at the end of January; is that there remains a lot of down and up range, with buys and sells, in many sectors. Without data available for an inside view, I can only speculate that machines are trading within ranges of overbought and oversold based upon, say; 6 months of backward data points. If 50% of this activity is machine programmed trading another substantial percentage will be the follow along human traders using their own tools of judgement for buy and sell points. Those who are very good at this type of trading will actually be able to sit atop their money in place of a chair. My 2 cents worth. Catch
@catch22 In my experience, it is better to own the casino than gamble at the casino. In other words, there are probably a handful of hedge fund managers or traders who will either accurately predict these sorts of fluctuations or get lucky in the short term. They will get noticed for this temporary success, and then billions of dollars will pour into their hedge funds trying to re-capture that magic. They will collect hefty fees off those billions--rain or shine, good market or bad--whether they repeat their momentary success again or not. Most of these "geniuses" eventually slip up and have major blowouts, yet somehow still manage to remain billionaires with other people's money. They own the casino collecting the fees.
Maybe we shouldn't help spread the word of such shysters who keep coming out of the woodwork spelling the demise of the stock market.
I can just imagine them huddled together thinking, "shall I say anything in July?" "No let me wait till September". Basically trying to be the "last one" to spell doom just before market will collapse and then become famous.
@VintageFreak I'd hardly call Minerd a shyster, but I would say bond managers tend to be more conservative and bearish than stock ones. Minerd is widely considered one of the best bond managers in the business.
@catch22 In my experience, it is better to own the casino than gamble at the casino. In other words, there are probably a handful of hedge fund managers or traders who will either accurately predict these sorts of fluctuations or get lucky in the short term. They will get noticed for this temporary success, and then billions of dollars will pour into their hedge funds trying to re-capture that magic. They will collect hefty fees off those billions--rain or shine, good market or bad--whether they repeat their momentary success again or not. Most of these "geniuses" eventually slip up and have major blowouts, yet somehow still manage to remain billionaires with other people's money. They own the casino collecting the fees.
I've periodically noted here regarding bond yields and the yield curve of U.S. Treasury issues. The curve continues to flatten among 30, 10 and 5 year issues. This morning, reflecting some of yesterdays actions find 10 basis points between the 30 and 10 year, and 11 basis points between the 10 and 5 year issues. --- 30 year at 2.95% 10 year at 2.85% 5 year at 2.74%
As this time is different remains, since the market melt of almost 10 years ago; does the yield curve spread still provide meaningful indicators. One must think so, yes? Big money is apparently still supporting long term bonds.....the pension funds, etc.; whomever is buying. Well, just a blip of what is visible in part of the bond arena. Take care, Catch
@vintagefreak.you ought to be very careful about using the word "shyster." Do you actually know the history of that word? If you do,,,, shame on you.if you don't,,,, shame on you.
The etymology of the word is not generally agreed upon. The Oxford English Dictionary describes it as "of obscure origin", possibly deriving from a historical sense of "shy" meaning disreputable, whereas the Merriam-Webster Dictionary deemed it probably based on the German Scheisser (literally "defecator"). Various false etymologies have suggested an anti-Semitic origin, possibly associated with the character of Shylock from Shakespeare's The Merchant of Venice, but there is no clear evidence for this. One source asserts that the term originated in Philadelphia in 1843 from a disreputable attorney named "Schuster." A book published in 2013 traces the first use back to 1843, when scammers in New York City would exploit prisoners by pretending to be lawyers. These scammers were disparagingly referred to as "shisers", meaning "worthless people" in British slang, which in turn was originally derived from the German "Scheißer" (literally: shitter).
@larryB, is this the connotation you are refering to, anti-semetic? I thought the word was just a reference to a shady lawyer and generalized for anyone else who fit that bill. Frankly I had no idea it had an anti-semetic reference to it (I would bet most people don't). I don't take shame for not knowing the reference, but now that I do, I for one will not use this phrase again. Thanks.
Various false etymologies have suggested an anti-Semitic origin, possibly associated with the character of Shylock from Shakespeare's The Merchant of Venice, but there is no clear evidence for this.
The NYTimes of 1874 had a writeup of a suit based on a courthouse lawyer's being called one, nothing mentioned other than derogatory meaning, a la ambulance-chaser. The Times today permits its regular use and not even law-related --- simply unscrupulous or unethical methods etc
Nothing antisemitic to it, though I bet larryB is not the only one under that misimpression.
You can find any number of definitions for that word but believe me,,, it is offensive. Mr. Minerd is not a lawyer. Calling him a shyster was hardly called for in this situation. So what was the reason for calling him an ethically charged word?
@MFO Members: This is another example of a good thread gone bad thanks to MR. Foul Mouth, namely VintageFreak. I'm considering asking Dave to have him banned. Regards, Ted
@larryB: Well, evidently somebody is under a misimpression. I've heard that word used all of my life with no ethnic connotation whatsoever. If you can document your position, please do so, and I will honor it. Otherwise it's just more of the "it's true because I say so" routine which is all too common since the last presidential election.
Note that I've at least taken the trouble to look up the etymology on Wickipedia. If you have the resources to discredit Wickipedia, have at it.
@Old_Joe. Why would V.F. use that word to describe a fund manager? Mr.Minerd is not a lawyer nor a money lender. Minerd wrote an option piece about the market. Hardly makes him a bad man. What do you suppose V.F. really meant? It sure wasn't a compliment,,,but it sure might be connected to Mr. Minard's ethnicity.Or not.
I think VF meant what he wrote (rereading what he posted I am positive), and you're off-base, badly reaching without any cause to find it a slur other than the usual derogatory meaning. And bringing up money-lending, wow.
I can point you to the recent handful of times it has been used in the newspaper, some of the instances by Jewish writers, but this is getting silly.
Of course it's not a compliment. We are in violent agreement about that.
This is not unlike the uninformed sharp reactions to a school admin (I think it was) a few years ago using the word niggardly.
@larryB- I've heard that word used, and used it myself, to describe anyone who is of dubious trustworthiness. Mountains out of anthills, never mind molehills.
Count me as among the ignorant who might have used “shyster” innocently. (But I’ve committed much bigger blunders along life’s way). Fortunately, the law makes clear distinctions in guilt based on intent, and I firmly believe there was no intent here to insult anyone or any group. I do like being made aware of the sensitivities of different religions, social groups, nationalities, sexual orientations, etc. Once aware of those sensitivities, I try very hard to respect them.
I remember when as a young lad I thought the Confederate flag a stately symbol. Displaying it in southern states 50-60 years ago was seen as a tribute to loved ones lost in battle and a symbol of one’s love for his homeland, Over time the connotations thus associated changed drastically (Language is a living organism - and symbols are a form of language.) So when I see some jerk driving around in northern Michigan today flying a couple confederate flags from his Harley or high-lift PU, I know darned well it isn’t intended as a tribute to a fallen loved one or as a loving symbol of his homeland. It’s a despicable display of hate and a needless provocation. Such is the state of man.
@MFO Members: This is another example of a good thread gone bad thanks to MR. Foul Mouth, namely VintageFreak. I'm considering asking Dave to have him banned. Regards, Ted
@Ted. Herr Frogmeister Fartalot, I always call a dog a dog and an a-hole and a-hole. I will continue to do so. My life does not start and end with MFO. You and your threats are absolutely worthless.
@larryb - WTF are you talking about? Whose ethnicity? I have better things to than comment on such things. Most investment managers are incompetent. And incompetence does not discriminate across race, creed, caste, religion, geography. So I don't need to resort to delving into their background to call them out. And neither do you need to do the same to me. Don't F with me and I won't F with you. You don't like my comments then fine. Don't cast aspersions on my character. Don't make personal attacks. I don't do it, BUT I wll GIVE if I RECEIVE. If you are related to Herr Frogmeister Fartalot above, I recommend a divorce.
@larryb, shyster a person, especially a lawyer, who uses unscrupulous, fraudulent, or deceptive methods in business
I beg your pardon. I admit, I didn't know about being a lawyer. I only knew about the rest of it. Now WTF is the problem? I'm a COB who thinks a lot of people are unscrupulous, fraudulent and use deception. Sue me.
Now...
Every other day someone is calling the demise of the stock market. Some day someone is going to be right at perfectly the right time. There is no reason for them to voice that opinion. If they think they are right why tell everyone else and lose the upper hand? There is no reason for giving interviews calling the demise of the stock market. There is no reason for articles on them to be published. Above all there is no reason for such and every single article to be spammed on MFO.
I don't think Vintage Freak had any bad intentions when he used the word "shyster." I know the word can have negative ethnic connotations, but sometimes you can tell by context whether someone is being nasty or not. The fighting here seems like a big to-do over nothing. Moreover, there has been some debate about the etymology of the word and whether it was ever meant to be offensive originally: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shyster Ironically, Minerd is actually a devout Christian: podbay.fm/show/728070854/e/1388697240
Comments
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-12/guggenheim-s-minerd-muscles-think-slow-strategy-to-260-billion
M* Snapshot GIOAX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gioax/quote.html
M* Snapshot GIFAX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gifax/quote.html
One aspect that continues since the global equity mini-melt at the end of January; is that there remains a lot of down and up range, with buys and sells, in many sectors.
Without data available for an inside view, I can only speculate that machines are trading within ranges of overbought and oversold based upon, say; 6 months of backward data points. If 50% of this activity is machine programmed trading another substantial percentage will be the follow along human traders using their own tools of judgement for buy and sell points. Those who are very good at this type of trading will actually be able to sit atop their money in place of a chair.
My 2 cents worth.
Catch
I can just imagine them huddled together thinking, "shall I say anything in July?" "No let me wait till September". Basically trying to be the "last one" to spell doom just before market will collapse and then become famous.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meredith_Whitney
The curve continues to flatten among 30, 10 and 5 year issues.
This morning, reflecting some of yesterdays actions find 10 basis points between the 30 and 10 year, and 11 basis points between the 10 and 5 year issues.
---
30 year at 2.95%
10 year at 2.85%
5 year at 2.74%
As this time is different remains, since the market melt of almost 10 years ago; does the yield curve spread still provide meaningful indicators. One must think so, yes?
Big money is apparently still supporting long term bonds.....the pension funds, etc.; whomever is buying.
Well, just a blip of what is visible in part of the bond arena.
Take care,
Catch
From Wickipedia:
The etymology of the word is not generally agreed upon. The Oxford English Dictionary describes it as "of obscure origin", possibly deriving from a historical sense of "shy" meaning disreputable, whereas the Merriam-Webster Dictionary deemed it probably based on the German Scheisser (literally "defecator"). Various false etymologies have suggested an anti-Semitic origin, possibly associated with the character of Shylock from Shakespeare's The Merchant of Venice, but there is no clear evidence for this. One source asserts that the term originated in Philadelphia in 1843 from a disreputable attorney named "Schuster." A book published in 2013 traces the first use back to 1843, when scammers in New York City would exploit prisoners by pretending to be lawyers. These scammers were disparagingly referred to as "shisers", meaning "worthless people" in British slang, which in turn was originally derived from the German "Scheißer" (literally: shitter).
Is 'Shyster' Anti-Semitic?
https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/almID/900005387204/?slreturn=20180612171637
Nothing antisemitic to it, though I bet larryB is not the only one under that misimpression.
You can find any number of definitions for that word but believe me,,, it is offensive. Mr. Minerd is not a lawyer. Calling him a shyster was hardly called for in this situation. So what was the reason for calling him an ethically charged word?
Regards,
Ted
Note that I've at least taken the trouble to look up the etymology on Wickipedia. If you have the resources to discredit Wickipedia, have at it.
I think VF meant what he wrote (rereading what he posted I am positive), and you're off-base, badly reaching without any cause to find it a slur other than the usual derogatory meaning. And bringing up money-lending, wow.
I can point you to the recent handful of times it has been used in the newspaper, some of the instances by Jewish writers, but this is getting silly.
Of course it's not a compliment. We are in violent agreement about that.
This is not unlike the uninformed sharp reactions to a school admin (I think it was) a few years ago using the word niggardly.
I remember when as a young lad I thought the Confederate flag a stately symbol. Displaying it in southern states 50-60 years ago was seen as a tribute to loved ones lost in battle and a symbol of one’s love for his homeland, Over time the connotations thus associated changed drastically (Language is a living organism - and symbols are a form of language.) So when I see some jerk driving around in northern Michigan today flying a couple confederate flags from his Harley or high-lift PU, I know darned well it isn’t intended as a tribute to a fallen loved one or as a loving symbol of his homeland. It’s a despicable display of hate and a needless provocation. Such is the state of man.
@larryb - WTF are you talking about? Whose ethnicity? I have better things to than comment on such things. Most investment managers are incompetent. And incompetence does not discriminate across race, creed, caste, religion, geography. So I don't need to resort to delving into their background to call them out. And neither do you need to do the same to me. Don't F with me and I won't F with you. You don't like my comments then fine. Don't cast aspersions on my character. Don't make personal attacks. I don't do it, BUT I wll GIVE if I RECEIVE. If you are related to Herr Frogmeister Fartalot above, I recommend a divorce.
@larryb, shyster
a person, especially a lawyer, who uses unscrupulous, fraudulent, or deceptive methods in business
I beg your pardon. I admit, I didn't know about being a lawyer. I only knew about the rest of it. Now WTF is the problem? I'm a COB who thinks a lot of people are unscrupulous, fraudulent and use deception. Sue me.
Now...
Every other day someone is calling the demise of the stock market. Some day someone is going to be right at perfectly the right time. There is no reason for them to voice that opinion. If they think they are right why tell everyone else and lose the upper hand? There is no reason for giving interviews calling the demise of the stock market. There is no reason for articles on them to be published. Above all there is no reason for such and every single article to be spammed on MFO.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DV2Ne7pVAAEDVWo.jpg
Ironically, Minerd is actually a devout Christian: podbay.fm/show/728070854/e/1388697240