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Hi guys! Last week sold half my PONAX thanks to Italy. My thinking is I should have sold all of it. Also sold some GLFOX yesterday. Really disappointed in it. So, right now, am raising cash and waiting. God bless the Pudd
As we enter June Old_Skeet's market barometer indicates that the S&P 500 Index is in the high range of fair value (and just short of being reflected as undervalued) with a reading of 154 baed upon the barometer's metrics. Last weeks reading was 153. Unless market conditions warrant otherwise the next scheduled barometer report will be made around the first part of July.
And, as I close out May better than 40% of my portfolio is invested in hybrid funds (that are pretty active in the markets) so I now leave it to them to do the majority of the portfolio's positioning and asset allocation tweaking as we move into and through summer. For the most part, I now invest around the edges. Currently, my buy activity of late has been to add to my convertible securities fund (FISCX), my commodity strategy fund (PCLAX), open new positions in AOFAX & FWAFX, roll a maturing cd into a new one paying 2.55% along with moving excess portfolio cash into one of my money market mutual funds (GBAXX). My recent sell activity (booking profits) were in two funds THOAX and DDIAX as they were no longer meeting my expectations. Now that two of my money market mutual funds GBAXX and AMAXX are built my excess cash will now be going into AFAXX. Hopefully, by the time (or before) it is built out I'll be finding some new equity investment opportunity. Otherwise, I'll continue to build cash and perhaps expand my CD ladder along with building out a few mutal fund positions which are presently under construction. My positions under construction are as follows: AFAXX (0% complete), CTFAX (65% complete), FISCX (75% complete), NEFZX (80% complete), FWAFX (25% complete), AOFAX (25% complete), PCLAX (85% complete) along with my CD ladder (75% complete).
Ed Yardeni's stock market forecast is linked below: and, I believe worth the read. He is projecting end of year valuation for the S&P 500 at 3100 and favors the following sectors: financials, technology, consumer discreationary and industrials. In addition, he feels small caps have a ways to run. A readers market survey is found towards the end of the article.
Hi Catch, Yeah, I thank them for the flight to quality.....which gave me a chance to take some profits. This fund is not what it was and what it is now, I want less of. God bless the Pudd p.s. David Moran has a good post.....a granular look at PIMIX, which is good.
@Puddnhead: I got out of GLFOX several months ago. 3 of top 6 positions are Italian, and the bulk of the fund's holdings are in European equities with negative YTD performance.
I took profits in DBC last week as commodities seem to have paused, though I could be wrong.
Thanks for making comment on taking profits in commodities.
I have noticed that commodities have drifted downward as we now start to move into summer which I felt they would. However, they have from what I have observed in the past start to trend back upwards come fall. I'm still with my commodity position (PCLAX) but I can also understand you booking your profits. I'm pretty close to rounding out my commodity position and will complete it sometime during the summer months while they are soft thinking good times will be hear again come fall. Also, once commodities start their run (which I feel they have) I have also noticed that they do this for a good number of years.
We'll see if this happens since they are coming off their lows. I too, have been wrong before. However, I am still up about 8% this year alone in my commodity strategy fund which I started buying this past fall (2017). I'm also hoping I stay net positive in it through the summer.
@Old_Skeet: My gain in DBC was precisely 8%. I dabble in ETF's, but this is my first venture into commodities. I would feel comfortable nibbling again in the fall. Thanks for your perspective.
@BenWP, Since the fall of 2017 I am up about 25% in PCLAX which includes fund distributions paid out. I am not sure what the quarterly fund distribution will be scheduled to be paid in June. The one paid in March was very little (zilch) and a disappointment. Last year PCLAX began its upward move during the summer which has lasted, thus far, through most of May 2018.
Hi BenWP, Good move! Me, not so good. I just wonder who is driving the bus in this fund. Why would you have so much Italy and Spain----it's insane. With Dragi soon leaving the ECB and a German coming in, things I think will get worse in Europe, especially for the PIGs. I don't think they will feel the love so much anymore. Saying all that, I wonder how the rest of the board feels about Europe. God bless the Pudd
Just bought Macy's Corp bond.. Much better yields than CD 5.7% but mature 2042 bbb+rated Macy's probably will not bankrupt... Did survive in 2008 and may compete reasonably w peers and amazon
@Puddnhead: FMIJX and whatever class of Euro Pacific Growth is in my TIAA have large European holdings and mediocre performance. BCSVX, on the other hand, has done really well in European SMIDs. MOTI, the wide-moat M* index international ETF, with 56% in Europe has not held on to last year’s strong gains. The French CAC has been stuck around 5400 for what seems like eons. I would not put new dough into a European index fund, but I did trim my under-performers and add to BCSVX.
Linked below is another stock market perspective from CNBC that calls for a year end target of 2800 (single digit stock market returns with bond yields heading higher). There is an investor survey with results at the end of the article.
Hi guys, Just some ponders. A website I really like is Marc to Market. It deals with overseas things mainly....but worth a look always. Some funds I've been following: EAPOX, VMACX, PSGAX. Again, not buying....just watching.....and all U.S. funds. Any thoughts on these? God bless the Pudd p.s. Funny, BenWP.......BCSVX is heavy health and tech. They're hot just like the U.S.
going to sell some DSENX to raise cash, not sure when
researching GOs in the equity or partial spaces
also PDI and PTY premia have risen even above their lofty levels, so am going to sell some of that too
maybe put some into PCI
(anyone know why M* and other places still call it a discount when it's the opposite, and in fact the label right next to the discount column has it as 'premium'?)
Comments
Last week sold half my PONAX thanks to Italy
And this statement means what ???
Thank you.
And, as I close out May better than 40% of my portfolio is invested in hybrid funds (that are pretty active in the markets) so I now leave it to them to do the majority of the portfolio's positioning and asset allocation tweaking as we move into and through summer. For the most part, I now invest around the edges. Currently, my buy activity of late has been to add to my convertible securities fund (FISCX), my commodity strategy fund (PCLAX), open new positions in AOFAX & FWAFX, roll a maturing cd into a new one paying 2.55% along with moving excess portfolio cash into one of my money market mutual funds (GBAXX). My recent sell activity (booking profits) were in two funds THOAX and DDIAX as they were no longer meeting my expectations. Now that two of my money market mutual funds GBAXX and AMAXX are built my excess cash will now be going into AFAXX. Hopefully, by the time (or before) it is built out I'll be finding some new equity investment opportunity. Otherwise, I'll continue to build cash and perhaps expand my CD ladder along with building out a few mutal fund positions which are presently under construction. My positions under construction are as follows: AFAXX (0% complete), CTFAX (65% complete), FISCX (75% complete), NEFZX (80% complete), FWAFX (25% complete), AOFAX (25% complete), PCLAX (85% complete) along with my CD ladder (75% complete).
Enjoy the read.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/earnings-not-geopolitical-noise-is-important-to-markets-ed-yardeni.html
Yeah, I thank them for the flight to quality.....which gave me a chance to take some profits. This fund is not what it was and what it is now, I want less of.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. David Moran has a good post.....a granular look at PIMIX, which is good.
I took profits in DBC last week as commodities seem to have paused, though I could be wrong.
Thanks for making comment on taking profits in commodities.
I have noticed that commodities have drifted downward as we now start to move into summer which I felt they would. However, they have from what I have observed in the past start to trend back upwards come fall. I'm still with my commodity position (PCLAX) but I can also understand you booking your profits. I'm pretty close to rounding out my commodity position and will complete it sometime during the summer months while they are soft thinking good times will be hear again come fall. Also, once commodities start their run (which I feel they have) I have also noticed that they do this for a good number of years.
We'll see if this happens since they are coming off their lows. I too, have been wrong before. However, I am still up about 8% this year alone in my commodity strategy fund which I started buying this past fall (2017). I'm also hoping I stay net positive in it through the summer.
Good move! Me, not so good. I just wonder who is driving the bus in this fund. Why would you have so much Italy and Spain----it's insane. With Dragi soon leaving the ECB and a German coming in, things I think will get worse in Europe, especially for the PIGs. I don't think they will feel the love so much anymore. Saying all that, I wonder how the rest of the board feels about Europe.
God bless
the Pudd
Macy's probably will not bankrupt... Did survive in 2008 and may compete reasonably w peers and amazon
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/bond/M/55616XAG2
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/03/double-digit-stock-market-gains-not-in-cards-citis-levkovich-says.html
Just some ponders. A website I really like is Marc to Market. It deals with overseas things mainly....but worth a look always. Some funds I've been following: EAPOX, VMACX, PSGAX. Again, not buying....just watching.....and all U.S. funds. Any thoughts on these?
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. Funny, BenWP.......BCSVX is heavy health and tech. They're hot just like the U.S.
researching GOs in the equity or partial spaces
also PDI and PTY premia have risen even above their lofty levels, so am going to sell some of that too
maybe put some into PCI
(anyone know why M* and other places still call it a discount when it's the opposite, and in fact the label right next to the discount column has it as 'premium'?)